Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 8 Apr 2015

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Publish date: Wed, 08 Apr 2015, 09:32 AM

Global

· Global Business Growth Picks Up in March. Global business activity accelerated at its fastest pace in six months in March, prompting firms to increase headcount. JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output Index, produced with Markit, jumped to 54.8 in March from February's 53.9. It has been above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since October 2012. "The global all-industry PMI points to an acceleration of global GDP growth through the opening quarter of 2015," said David Hensley, a director at JPMorgan. Separately, an index measuring employment rose to a nine-month high of 52.0 from 51.8 as firms took on workers to meet growing demand. (Reuters)

· IMF Sees Low Potential Economic Growth around World. The world's growth potential took a big hit after the 2007-2009 financial crisis and is likely to lag for years, the International Monetary Fund said in a study. Potential growth already was slowing in richer economies before the financial crisis due to aging populations and a drop in technological innovation. But declines in private investment and employment growth cut annual potential growth in these countries to 1.3% between 2008 and 2014, half a percentage point lower than before the crisis. Over the next five years, advanced economies' annual growth potential should increase to 1.6%, still below pre-crisis growth rates, making it more difficult to cut high public and private debt, the IMF said. In emerging markets, potential annual growth fell to 6.5% from 2008 to 2014, about two percentage points lower than before the crisis, and is expected to fall further to 5.2% over the next five years as populations age, structural constraints curb capital growth, and productivity slows. (Reuters)

Malaysia

· Bank Negara Reserves at RM389.7 billion ($105.1 billion). The reserves position as at 31 March 2015 is sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

Asia-Pacific

· Reserve Bank of India Keeps Rates on Hold. RBI kept interest rates on hold at 7.50% on Tuesday, waiting to assess inflationary pressures and give banks more time to reflect its previous cuts in their lending rates. India's largest bank, State Bank of India, moved within hours to trim its base lending rate, becoming the first major player to do so since the RBI began its current round of cuts earlier this year. In a statement after Tuesday's policy review, the RBI said it would maintain an "accommodative stance" but cited risks, raising some uncertainty about when it would cut rates next. Governor Raghuram Rajan said he did not expect RBI thinking to be blown off course by the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates. The RBI has cut rates twice this year, by a total 50 basis points. (Reuters)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Skips on Rate Cut, Still Open to Easing. Australia's central bank kept interest rates steady for a second month on Tuesday to defy market pressure for a cut, though it remained open to an easing given falling export prices and a stubbornly high local dollar. "The Board judged that it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being," RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said following the central bank's monthly policy meeting. But he also threw stimulushungry investors a bone. "Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead. The Board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings." (Reuters)

· China Details Rules for Special Local Government Bonds. China's Finance Ministry has released rules for 100 billion yuan worth ($16.1 billion) of "special bonds" that local governments will be allowed to issue this year to raise funds for construction of public projects. The new rules, combined with rules announced last month for 500 billion yuan in general bonds, complete the framework for local governments to begin full-scale issuance of debt directly to the markets, in a drive to boost transparency and discipline in local government finance. Saddled with more than $3 trillion worth of local government debt, China wants to rein in its public borrowing by allowing authorities to raise funds only from bond investors, while closing off covert funding routes that local governments have resorted to in the past. (Reuters)

· Thai Foreign Tourist Arrivals Rise 23% in Q1. The number of foreign tourists arriving in Thailand rose to 7.8 million in the first three months of 2015, a spokesman for the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said on Tuesday. Tourists from China, Malaysia, South Korea, Russia and Japan topped the list of visitors. The ministry expects full-year foreign tourist numbers to reach 28.8 million, generating an estimated 2 trillion baht ($61.43 billion) in tourism revenue, according to a statement. (Reuters)

USA

· U.S. Jobs Opening Data Points to Skills Mismatch. U.S. job openings surged to a 14-year high in February but a steady pace of hiring suggested employers are having trouble finding suitable workers, a trend that could put upward pressure of wage growth. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 168,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.1 million, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. That was the highest level since January 2001. Hiring was little changed at 4.9 million in February, leaving the hiring rate steady at 3.5%. "We interpret the combination of rising job openings and slower hiring as a potential sign of increased mismatch between the needs of employers and the skills of available workers," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. This implies employers will need to raise wages, whose growth has been tepid despite a sharp pick-up job gains. (Reuters)

· U.S. Consumer Borrowing Climbs To Record High. Consumers increased their borrowing to a record high in February, driven by a large jump in auto and student loans. The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that consumer borrowing expanded $15.5 billion in February following a $10.8 billion gain in January. The February increase pushed borrowing to a fresh record of $3.34 trillion. Borrowing in the category that covers auto loans and student loans increased by $19.2 billion, the biggest monthly gain since July 2011. That offset a $3.7 billion decline in the credit card category. Consumer borrowing has risen 6.8% over the past year, fueled by an 8.3% rise in auto and student loans. The credit card category is up a more modest 3.4%. (AP)

urope

· Eurozone Price Discounting Drives Growth in Activity. Price discounting drove growth in all of the euro zone's major economies in March, helping business activity increase at its fastest rate for nearly a year. New orders came in at their fastest rate since May 2011 and the survey found that companies have now been cutting prices for three years, although not as sharply in March as before. Nevertheless, the Markit survey provided some welcome news for the European Central Bank (ECB) just weeks after it embarked on a trillion-euro asset-purchase programme. The private sector in Germany, Europe's largest economy, grew at its fastest pace in eight months and although it also increased in France, the pace of expansion slowed. Italy's service industry returned to growth, fuelling hopes of an economic recovery there after years of on-off recession, and Spain's expanded at its fastest pace since August. (Reuters)

· Ireland’s Services Sector Expands Again in March. Ireland's services expanded at a robust pace again in March, a survey showed on Tuesday, as companies reported that new orders rose substantially, albeit at the slowest pace in more than a year. Ireland's economy is forecast to be the fastest growing in the European Union for a second successive year in 2015. The Investec Purchasing Managers' Index of activity in the services sector, which covers businesses from banks to hotels, slipped to 60.9 from 61.4 in February. It had reached an eight-year high in December last year. The index has stayed above 60 for a year and has not fallen below the 50-point line denoting growth since July 2012. (Reuters)

Currencies

· U.S. Dollar Rallies, Eroding Wall Street Gains. The U.S. dollar rose more than 1% on Tuesday, resuming a recent upward trend and weighing on Wall Street stocks as investors fretted the currency's strength would hurt multinational corporate profits. The U.S. dollar index rose 1.22% on Tuesday. Until recently, the dollar had rallied sharply on increased expectations for higher rates from the U.S. central bank, although those expectations have dimmed somewhat of late. The dollar recovered all the ground it lost against the euro from Friday's dismal March employment report. The euro fell 1% to a session low $1.08145 on the EBS trading platform. The dollar rose to its strongest since March 20 against the Japanese yen, hitting a high of 120.45 yen, a gain of 0.77% on the day. The Aussie dollar rose to US$0.7711, its highest in a week, from around US$0.76 before the RBA decision, extending its recovery from a six-year trough of $0.7534 set on Thursday. (Reuters)

Commodities

· Oil Rallies on U.S. Data, Bullish EIA Monthly Report. Oil futures rallied on Tuesday and U.S. crude approached 2015 highs on strong jobs data and government forecasts for lower U.S. crude production growth and higher global demand for oil. U.S. May crude rose $1.84 to settle at $53.98 a barrel after dropping to $51.17. Brent May crude rose 98 cents to settle at $59.10, having swung from $57.02 to $59.27, highest since March 26. (Reuters) · Gold Retreats from Seven-Week Top as Dollar Bounces Back. Gold edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar recovered and global shares rose, but uncertainty about the timing of a U.S. interest rate increase kept bullion not far from a sevenweek high above $1,200 an ounce. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,208.55 an ounce by 2:24 p.m. EDT (1824 GMT). Spot silver fell 1.1% to $16.79 an ounce, while platinum lost 0.4% to $1,168.98 an ounce and palladium was flat at $767.50 an $16.79 an ounce, while platinum lost 0.4% to $1,168.98 an ounce and palladium was flat at $767.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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