Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 Apr 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 20 Apr 2015, 09:28 AM

Asia

China Makes Big Cut in Bank Reserve Requirement. China's central bank on Sunday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, the second industry-wide cut in two months, adding more liquidity to the world's second-biggest economy. The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5 percent, effective from April 20, the central bank said in a statement. (Reuters)

China March Home Prices Fall, Beijing Shows Month-on-Month Growth. China's average new home prices continued to fall in March, but on a narrowing trend that is expected to continue as the government's stimulus policies bolster sales volumes. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped 6.1 percent last month from a year ago, the seventh consecutive month fall, following February's 5.7 percent decline. But the monthly fall between March and February was 0.1 percent, narrowing from a 0.4 percent fall in the previous month, with the capital city of Beijing braking eight consecutive drops and rising 0.3 percent, as prices continue to stabilize. (Reuters)

Singapore Exports Jump Most in 3 Years. Singapore's annual exports in March grew the most in three years, handily beating expectations on surging sales to the United States and Europe, backing this week's decision by the central bank to hold off from further easing. Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) jumped 18.5 percent in March from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said on Friday in a statement. It marked the highest annual exports growth since February 2012. The result compared with a polled 0.7 percent contraction forecast, and a 9.7 percent drop in February, and suggested global demand may be on the mend. (Reuters)

India’s Trade Deficit Widens on Falling Exports. India's trade deficit in March was the highest in four months, at $11.79 billion, as exports continued to fall. A plunge in global prices of crude oil, by nearly half since last June, has slashed India's import bill, making for a less worrisome trade deficit, despite a drop in exports in recent months. Annual figures published on Friday for the full fiscal year that ended in March showed merchandise exports declined 1.2 percent to $310.5 billion, while imports were down 0.6 percent, at $447.6 billion. That widened the annual trade deficit for Asia's third-largest economy to $137 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year from $135.8 billion in the preceding year

 

USA

U.S. Consumer Prices Edge Up in March. Consumer prices in the U.S. increased for a second straight month in March on rising gasoline and housing costs, a sign of an uptick in inflation. The Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent last month after a similar gain in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI slipped 0.1 percent after being unchanged in February. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, increased 0.2 percent in March after a similar rise in February. In the 12 months through March, the core CPI rose 1.8 percent, the largest increase since October. (Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises in April. U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in April, a survey released on Friday showed. The University of Michigan's preliminary April reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 95.9, up from the final March read of 93.0. Analysts were looking for a reading of 94.0. The survey's subindex on business conditions rose to 108.2 from 105.0 in March, while a read on consumer expectations rose to 88.0 from 85.3. (Reuters)

 

Europe

France to Expand Back-to-Work Scheme. France will extend planned back-to-work bonus payments to part-time jobs and younger recipients, President Francois Hollande said on Sunday, as he battles persistently high unemployment that has tarnished his first three years in office. Speaking on Canal Plus television, Hollande said his government would widen the scope of the draft legislation to be unveiled on Tuesday with the aim of raising work incentives. Bonuses under the 4 billion euro ($4.3 billion) back-to-work program were originally to have been limited to workers over 25 in full-time jobs and earning less than 1,400 euros a month after welfare deductions. Instead, the monthly top-ups will also be offered to younger workers and those in part-time jobs.

 

Currencies

Dollar Posts Worst Week in Four as Traders Mull Soft U.S. Data. The U.S. dollar posted its worst week in four against a currency basket on Friday after data showing a rise in consumer prices failed to alleviate concerns that recent soft U.S. economic data could delay the Federal Reserve's first rate hike. The dollar rebounded against major currencies in morning trading after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in March, while closely watched core consumer prices rose 1.8 percent year-on-year, inching closer to the Fed's 2.0 percent target. The move was short-lived, however, as traders reverted to selling the dollar on the view that the data was not strong enough to offset a batch of weaker-than-expected economic readings for the first quarter. The euro hit its highest level against the dollar in over a week at $1.08490. The dollar also hit its lowest against the yen in over three weeks at 118.565 yen and its lowest against the Swiss franc in two weeks of 0.94950 franc. The dollar index was last down 0.38 percent at 97.336. (Reuters)

China, Malaysia Renew Currency Swap Arrangement for Three Years. China and Malaysia have renewed their currency swap arrangement for a further three years, according to a statement on the website of the Malaysian central bank. The swap exchanges 180 billion yuan ($29.04 billion) for 90 billion ringgit ($24.83 billion), according to the report, unchanged from the previous swap arrangement in 2012, which increased the size of the first swap signed in 2009. "This renewed bilateral currency swap arrangement reinforces the on-going commitment by both central banks in promoting the use of local currencies for payment settlement," said Bank Negara Malaysia in its statement. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Falls from 2015 Peaks, Brent Jumps 9.6% on Week. Crude futures fell from 2015 peaks in choppy trading on Friday, but Brent's 9.6 percent weekly gain was its biggest in more than five years as Middle East turmoil and signs of lower U.S. production lifted prices. U.S. crude also retreated from its 2015 high, but registered a fifth straight weekly gain, which at 7.9 percent was the biggest since it jumped 13.5 percent in the week to Feb 25, 2011. Brent June crude fell 53 cents to settle at $63.45 a barrel, having swung from $62.95 to $64.50 after hitting $64.95, its 2015 high, on Thursday. U.S. May crude, expiring on Tuesday, fell 97 cents to settle at $55.74. It reached a 2015 peak of $57.42 on Thursday. (Reuters)

Gold Pares Gains after U.S. Inflation Data. Gold pared gains on Friday, heading for a second weekly drop, after data showing U.S. consumer prices rose in March tempered speculation the Federal Reserve will delay its first interest rate rise in nearly a decade. The metal held above the $1,200 an ounce level, however, which it broke above earlier this week after a run of downbeat U.S. data led analysts to reassess expectations the Fed would raise rates in June. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent at $1,204.10 an ounce at 2:36 p.m. 1836 GMT, off an earlier high of $1,207.60 and down 0.3 percent on the week. Silver was up 0.2 percent at $16.22 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.8 percent at $1,165.49 an ounce and palladium was up 0.7 percent at $781 an ounce.

 

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