Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 May 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 11 May 2015, 09:17 AM

Asia

China Cuts interest rates for Third Time in Six Months. China cut interest rates in a bid to lower companies' borrowing costs and stoke a sputtering economy that is headed for its worst year in a quarter of a century. Analysts welcomed the widely-expected move, but predicted policymakers would relax reserve requirements and cut rates again in the coming months to counter the headwinds facing the world's second-largest economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website it was lowering its benchmark, one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1% from May 11. It cut the benchmark deposit rate by the same amount to 2.25%. "China's economy is still facing relatively big downward pressure," the PBOC said. "At the same time, the overall level of domestic prices remains low, and real interest rates are still higher than the historical average," it said. (Reuters)

China April Inflation Muted at 1.5%. China’s consumer inflation was more muted than expected in April and producer prices fell for the 37th consecutive month, adding to concerns about growing deflationary pressures which are likely to trigger further policy easing. Annual consumer inflation picked up a shade to 1.5% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, edging up from 1.4% in March but below the 1.6% predicted by analysts. A seasonal jump in food prices aside, some economists said the figures pointed to moderate price pressures and lackluster domestic demand in the world's second-biggest economy.Saturday's data showed higher food prices drove April's inflation, with pork prices climbing 8.3%. And in a sign that China's anti-graft campaign led by President Xi Jinping had also dented spending, liquor prices fell 0.5% in April for the 19th consecutive month. (Reuters)

China April Exports Unexpectedly Contract. China's exports unexpectedly fell 6.4% in April from a year earlier. April imports tumbled 16.2% from a year earlier, following a 12.7% drop in March that highlighted tepid domestic demand as the world's second-largest economy slows. That left the country with a trade surplus of $34.13 billion for the month, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday. Analysts expected exports to rise 2.4% in April from a year earlier, and predicted imports would fall 12%. (Reuters)

 

USA

US Economy Rebounding with Solid if Unspectacular Job Gains. The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in April, a solid gain that suggested that employers are helping fuel a durable if still subpar recovery. The job growth helped lower the unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.5% in March, the Labor Department said Friday. That is the lowest rate since May 2008, six months into the Great Recession. The figures provided some reassurance that the economy is recovering from a harsh winter and other temporary headwinds that likely caused it to shrink in the first three months of the year. Yet the bounce back appears to be falling short of hopes that growth would finally accelerate in 2015 and top 3% for the first time in a decade. In its report Friday, the government revised sharply down its estimate of March's job gain to 85,000 from 126,000. In the past three months, employers have added 191,000 positions, well below last year's average of 260,000. (AP)

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Slightly in March. May 8 U.S. wholesale inventories rose slightly in March as sales fell, data from the Commerce Department showed on Friday. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% after a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in February. Economists had forecast stocks at wholesalers rising 0.3% in March after a previously reported 0.3% increase in February. Sales at wholesalers fell 0.2% in March after declining 0.6% the prior month. It was the fourth straight monthly decline in sales. Sales had been forecast to rise 0.5% following a previously reported 0.2% decline in February. At March's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.30 months to clear shelves, a ratio unchanged from February. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Industrial Production Falls as Economy Risks Grow. German industrial production unexpectedly declined in March in a sign that Europe’s largest economy remains vulnerable to global economic weakness. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 0.5% after stagnating in February, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Friday. The typically volatile number compares with a median estimate of a 0.4% gain in a survey. Production rose 0.1% from a year earlier. Manufacturing output fell 0.8% in March from the previous month, with investment-goods production down 1.4%, according to the report. Factory orders, a gauge of future output, rose in March after two months of decline, the statistics office said Thursday. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Edges Higher against Major Currencies after U.S. Jobs Data. The U.S. dollar failed to rally on Friday against a basket of major currencies after a mixed U.S. jobs report stoked uncertainty over the timing of Federal Reserve rate hikes, but gains against the euro helped the currency edge higher. While the dollar initially rallied against a basket of major currencies after the data, with the euro slipping below $1.12 to a session low of $1.1179, it gave back most of its gains as traders digested negative details of the jobs report. The dollar index was last up 0.16% at 94.783. The euro was last down 0.51% against the dollar at $1.12080. The dollar was last flat against the Japanese yen at 119.745 yen, and up 1.09% against the Swiss franc at 0.93150 franc. The sterling was last up 1.35% against the dollar at $1.5450, not far from a more than 10-week high against the greenback of $1.5522 after Prime Minister David Cameron won an election victory in Britain. (Reuters)

 

Asia

China Cuts interest rates for Third Time in Six Months. China cut interest rates in a bid to lower companies' borrowing costs and stoke a sputtering economy that is headed for its worst year in a quarter of a century. Analysts welcomed the widely-expected move, but predicted policymakers would relax reserve requirements and cut rates again in the coming months to counter the headwinds facing the world's second-largest economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website it was lowering its benchmark, one-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.1% from May 11. It cut the benchmark deposit rate by the same amount to 2.25%. "China's economy is still facing relatively big downward pressure," the PBOC said. "At the same time, the overall level of domestic prices remains low, and real interest rates are still higher than the historical average," it said. (Reuters)

China April Inflation Muted at 1.5%. China’s consumer inflation was more muted than expected in April and producer prices fell for the 37th consecutive month, adding to concerns about growing deflationary pressures which are likely to trigger further policy easing. Annual consumer inflation picked up a shade to 1.5% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, edging up from 1.4% in March but below the 1.6% predicted by analysts. A seasonal jump in food prices aside, some economists said the figures pointed to moderate price pressures and lackluster domestic demand in the world's second-biggest economy.Saturday's data showed higher food prices drove April's inflation, with pork prices climbing 8.3%. And in a sign that China's anti-graft campaign led by President Xi Jinping had also dented spending, liquor prices fell 0.5% in April for the 19th consecutive month. (Reuters)

China April Exports Unexpectedly Contract. China's exports unexpectedly fell 6.4% in April from a year earlier. April imports tumbled 16.2% from a year earlier, following a 12.7% drop in March that highlighted tepid domestic demand as the world's second-largest economy slows. That left the country with a trade surplus of $34.13 billion for the month, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday. Analysts expected exports to rise 2.4% in April from a year earlier, and predicted imports would fall 12%. (Reuters)

 

USA

US Economy Rebounding with Solid if Unspectacular Job Gains. The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in April, a solid gain that suggested that employers are helping fuel a durable if still subpar recovery. The job growth helped lower the unemployment rate to 5.4% from 5.5% in March, the Labor Department said Friday. That is the lowest rate since May 2008, six months into the Great Recession. The figures provided some reassurance that the economy is recovering from a harsh winter and other temporary headwinds that likely caused it to shrink in the first three months of the year. Yet the bounce back appears to be falling short of hopes that growth would finally accelerate in 2015 and top 3% for the first time in a decade. In its report Friday, the government revised sharply down its estimate of March's job gain to 85,000 from 126,000. In the past three months, employers have added 191,000 positions, well below last year's average of 260,000. (AP)

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Slightly in March. May 8 U.S. wholesale inventories rose slightly in March as sales fell, data from the Commerce Department showed on Friday. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% after a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in February. Economists had forecast stocks at wholesalers rising 0.3% in March after a previously reported 0.3% increase in February. Sales at wholesalers fell 0.2% in March after declining 0.6% the prior month. It was the fourth straight monthly decline in sales. Sales had been forecast to rise 0.5% following a previously reported 0.2% decline in February. At March's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.30 months to clear shelves, a ratio unchanged from February. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Industrial Production Falls as Economy Risks Grow. German industrial production unexpectedly declined in March in a sign that Europe’s largest economy remains vulnerable to global economic weakness. Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 0.5% after stagnating in February, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Friday. The typically volatile number compares with a median estimate of a 0.4% gain in a survey. Production rose 0.1% from a year earlier. Manufacturing output fell 0.8% in March from the previous month, with investment-goods production down 1.4%, according to the report. Factory orders, a gauge of future output, rose in March after two months of decline, the statistics office said Thursday. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Edges Higher against Major Currencies after U.S. Jobs Data. The U.S. dollar failed to rally on Friday against a basket of major currencies after a mixed U.S. jobs report stoked uncertainty over the timing of Federal Reserve rate hikes, but gains against the euro helped the currency edge higher. While the dollar initially rallied against a basket of major currencies after the data, with the euro slipping below $1.12 to a session low of $1.1179, it gave back most of its gains as traders digested negative details of the jobs report. The dollar index was last up 0.16% at 94.783. The euro was last down 0.51% against the dollar at $1.12080. The dollar was last flat against the Japanese yen at 119.745 yen, and up 1.09% against the Swiss franc at 0.93150 franc. The sterling was last up 1.35% against the dollar at $1.5450, not far from a more than 10-week high against the greenback of $1.5522 after Prime Minister David Cameron won an election victory in Britain. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Brent Posts Weekly Loss after Month of Gains. Brent oil posted its first weekly loss in a month on Friday as the market fretted again about global oversupply while U.S. crude rose for an eighth straight week, helped by jobs growth data and the first storm of the hurricane season forming. Crude prices had rallied with little pause over the past month, helped by a weaker dollar and bets that better demand in the near term will ease the supply glut. But on Thursday, prices fell as much as 3%, their most since early April, after hitting 2015 highs. Oil was also pressured by a stronger dollar and physical oil markets showing tens millions of West African, Azeri and North Sea crude barrels without buyers. In Friday's session, Brent settled down 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $65.39 a barrel. It was down 1.6% on the week. Brent had risen previously in four consecutive weeks, gaining nearly 20%. U.S. crude rose 45 cents, or 0.8%, for the session to settle at $59.39 a barrel. It climbed 0.4% on the week, extending gains for an eighth straight week that had put the market up 32%. (Reuters)

Gold Prices Edge Higher after U.S. Payrolls Data. Gold edged higher on Friday, snapping two days of losses, as revisions to U.S. payrolls data supported speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold off raising interest rates in the immediate future. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,187.52 an ounce at 1855 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $6.70 an ounce at $1,188.90. Silver was up 0.7% at $16.43 an ounce, platinum up 0.8% at $1,137 an ounce and palladium up 2.5% at $796.75 an ounce. Earlier palladium hit its highest in two months at $801 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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