Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 21 May 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 21 May 2015, 09:55 AM

Malaysia

PM to Table 11th Malaysia Plan Today. Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will launch an economic plan today that will turn Malaysia into a high-income nation in 2020 if successfully implemented. The 11th Malaysia Plan, which the Prime Minister will table in the Dewan Rakyat at 11.30am, will outline what needs to be done in the next five years to achieve that goal. Najib described the plan as the last leg towards achieving Vision 2020, a direction for the country set by former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 1990. “It will chart Malaysia’s direction for the next five years. This will be the final lap before we reach developed nation status, which is what Vision 2020 aims for,” the Prime Minister said. (The Star)

 

Asia

Taiwan April Export Orders in Worst Fall in 2 Years. Taiwan's export orders in April posted their worst showing in more than two years, with big falls from Japan and China flagging softening demand for the island's electronic gadgets. Orders in April fell 4% from a year earlier, the economic ministry said on Wednesday, trailing a poll for a 1.96% contraction. April's orders underperformed 1.3% growth in March. Orders from its two biggest markets were mixed. China orders in April fell 10.3% from a year earlier but was offset by a 14% rise in U.S. orders. Taiwan's export orders are a leading indicator of demand for Asia's exports and for hi-tech gadgets, and typically lead actual exports by two to three months. (Reuters)

 

USA

Fed Minutes Show Doubts about Strength of US Recovery. Doubts about the strength of the US recovery appeared to grow among Federal Reserve policy makers in their latest rate-setting meeting as soggy economic data further diminished the prospect of a rate rise in the summer. Minutes from the meeting on April 28-29 reveal a Federal Open Market Committee that was divided over when the central bank’s target range for the federal funds rate should be lifted from today’s near-zero levels. A “range of views” were expressed on the right time for a move. Whereas a few rate-setters thought June could still be the right time for the first increase, they were outnumbered by those who thought conditions were unlikely to be right by then. (Financial Times)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall in Latest Week. May 20 Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as interest rates rose to their highest level since December 2014. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 1.5% in the week ended May. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications rose 0.3%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 3.7% to the lowest level since April. Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.04% in the week, the highest level since December 2014. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Greece Says It Will Default in June Without Aid from Lenders. Greece will not be able to make a payment to the International Monetary Fund due on June 5 unless foreign lenders provide more aid, a senior ruling party lawmaker said on Wednesday, the latest warning from Athens that it is on the verge of default. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftist government says it hopes to reach a cash-for-reforms deal in days, although European Union and IMF lenders are more pessimistic and say talks are moving too slowly for that. Payments to the IMF totaling about 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) fall due next month, starting with a 300 million euro payment on June 5. "Now is the moment that negotiations are coming to a head. Now is the moment of truth, on June 5," Nikos Filis, spokesman for the ruling Syriza party's lawmakers, told ANT1 television. "If there is no deal by then that will address the current funding problem, they won't get any money," he said. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Up, Bond Yields Fall as Fed Rate Hike Appears Further Out. The dollar rose and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting bolstered expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain near zero until later in 2015. The minutes, released ahead of a much anticipated speech on Friday by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, showed that many officials at the April 28-29 meeting believed it would be premature to raise rates in June. The dollar index of major currencies traded against the greenback was last up 0.35%, as the euro slid to two-week lows on a Greek official's warning that the country may miss a debt repayment. The euro last traded off 0.5% against the dollar at $1.1098 after touching a low of $1.1063. The dollar was last ahead 0.5% against the Japanese yen to over 121 yen, a level not seen for two months. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Rises on U.S. Crude Drawdown but Oversupply Still Weighs. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, with U.S. crude snapping a five-day decline, after another weekly inventory draw but gains were still limited by a huge supply overhang and concerns about a stronger dollar. U.S. crude stocks fell nearly 2.7 million barrels last week, down for a third consecutive week, the government-run Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined.

U.S. crude settled up 99 cents, or 1.7%, at $58.98 a barrel. Brent oil, the more widely-followed followed benchmark, settled up $1.01, or 1.6%, at $65.03. Oil fell over 3% on Tuesday on a dollar rally and concerns of a building glut. (Reuters)

Gold Extends Gains after Fed Minutes Caution on Rate Hike. Gold rose on Wednesday, briefly climbing to a new session high as the dollar pared its gains after U.S. Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers believed it would be premature to raise interest rates in June. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,211.06 an ounce at 1848 GMT, after climbing 0.5% to a session high at $1,213.36 after the Fed minutes were released. Gold's firm session comes after it slid sharply on Tuesday. Among other metals, silver gained 0.7% to $17.16 an ounce after falling 3.6% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day slide in three months. Platinum was up 0.5% at $1,158.70 an ounce and palladium down 0.1% at $774 an ounce. (Reuters)

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