Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 May 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 29 May 2015, 09:42 AM

Asia

Japan April Nationwide Core CPI Rises 0.3%. Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.3% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, keeping inflation distant from the central bank's 2% target. The rise in the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, compared with a median market forecast for a 0.2% increase. An increase in Japan's sales tax hike last April inflated consumer inflation by 2.0 percentage point until March this year, according to Bank of Japan estimates. Since some companies waited until May last year in passing on the tax hike, there is a 0.3 point boost from the tax hike for this year's April CPI, according to the estimates. When excluding that effect, the April nationwide core CPI was flat year-on-year. (Reuters)

Weak Exports, Spending Drag Philippine Q1 Growth to 6-Year Low. Philippine economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter, but the central bank said it would not ease policy as consumer and public spending were set to pick up. First quarter GDP slowed to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the January-March quarter from 2.5% in the fourth quarter, the weakest in six years, the statistics agency said. Economists had forecast 1.4% growth. (Reuters)

Plunge in Thai April Factory Output Shows Continuing Economy Woes. Thai factory output tumbled more than expected in April, the latest evidence that the country's key economic engines remain wobbly. The Industry Ministry said on Thursday factory output in April fell 5.3% from a year earlier, the most for any month since June. A market poll expected a 2% drop. In March, annual output slipped a revised 1.7% after February's rise that ended a 22-month streak of declines. Siriruj Chulakaratana, a ministry official, told a briefing the April output fall "was due to fewer working days. (Reuters)

 

USA

Mortgage Rates in the U.S. Increase to Highest for 2015. Mortgage rates in the U.S. rose to a 2015 high this week as bond investors reacted to reports showing the housing market is heating up. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.87%, up from 3.84% last week and matching the level at the end of 2014, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The average 15-year rate increased to 3.11% from 3.05%, according to the McLean, Virginia-based mortgage financier. Home-loan costs climbed as investors speculated that positive economic data will encourage the Federal Reserve to increase the amount it charges banks to borrow funds. (Bloomberg)

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hold Below 300,000 for 12th Week. Applications for U.S. jobless benefits remained below 300,000 for the 12th straight week, signaling the labor market remains firm even as the economy has been slow to rebound from a first-quarter slump. Jobless claims increased by 7,000 to 282,000 in the week ended May 23, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 51 economists called for 270,000. Readings this low typically coincide with healthy levels of hiring. Persistently low firings signal managers are planning for at least steady business demand. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Race to Nine-Year High. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose for a fourth straight month in April to a nine-year high, buoying the outlook for the housing market. The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 3.4% to 112.4, the highest level since May 2006. These contracts become sales after a month or two, and last month's increase pointed to a pick-up in home resales after they lost momentum in April. Economists had forecast pending home sales rising 0.9% last month. Pending home sales increased 14.0% from a year ago. (Reuters)

 

Europe

UK First-Quarter Growth Sapped by Surge in Imports. Britain sucked in imports in the first three months of 2015, and its large services sector performed weaker than first thought, casting doubt over the strength of its previously robust recovery. The economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday, confirming an initial estimate which the Bank of England and most other economists had thought too gloomy. The first-quarter growth rate was half that seen in the last six months of 2014. Sterling, the strength of which was part of the problem in the first quarter, fell against the dollar after the data. (Reuters)

Euro-Area Confidence Holds Steady. Euro-area economic confidence remained near a four-year high this month, a sign the recovery is shaking off concerns related to Greece and the risk of default. An index of executive and consumer confidence stood at 103.8 in May, unchanged from the previous month, the European Commission said Thursday. Economists had forecast a drop to 103.5 from an initially reported 103.7 in April. The commission report showed industrial confidence in the euro-area rose to minus 3 from minus 3.2 in April. Sentiment among consumers fell to minus 5.5 from minus 4.6, while confidence in the services sector increased. (Bloomberg)

Irish Retail Sales Rise at Fastest Pace since Crisis. Irish retail sales volumes rose 11.9% in April compared with the same month a year ago, the fastest annual rise since the financial crisis began as the economy's recovery broadened and gathered further pace. Ireland's economy grew by 4.8% last year, its best performance since 2007 and the fastest growth in the EU. Retail sales grew 0.5% month-on-month but excluding car purchases, which rose sharply in the first quarter, volumes were up 3.1% from March, Central Statistics Office data showed on Thursday. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Euro Up, Yen at 12-Year Low, Dollar Trend Seen Holding. The euro rose on Thursday as Greece fought to reach an agreement with its lenders to avoid an imminent default, but mixed signals on the state of the negotiations kept other markets little changed. The euro gained 0.4% to $1.0946 and the dollar index fell 0.5% after rising 1.4% in the previous two sessions. The Japanese currency touched its weakest since 2002 against the U.S. dollar, at 124.46 yen. It ended the session down 0.2% at 123.94. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Ends Higher as U.S. Inventories Drop for Fourth Week. Oil prices rose in choppy trade on Thursday, snapping two days of sharp losses, after data showed a fourth weekly drawdown in U.S. crude stocks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels last week, ahead of Monday's Memorial Day holiday, which unofficially kicked off the peak summer driving season in the United States. Despite that, oil bulls could barely push the market higher right after the EIA data. U.S. crude was down most of the day and Brent was only up slightly, both rallying just before the close. U.S. crude settled up 17 cents, or 0.3%, at $57.68 a barrel, after plumbing a one-month low of $56.51. Brent settled at $62.58, up 52 cents, or nearly 1%, after a six-week low at $61.24. (Reuters)

Gold Bounces Up from Two-Week Low as Dollar, Shares Fall. Gold inched higher after hitting a two-week low on Thursday as the dollar and global shares fell alongside uncertainty about Greece and an unexpected rise in U.S. jobless claims. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,188.30 an ounce by 1826 GMT after falling to $1,180.55, the lowest since May 11. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $2.50 at $1,188.10 an ounce. In the physical markets, China's net gold imports from main conduit Hong Kong tumbled to an eight-month low in April, data showed. Silver was down 0.1% at $16.65 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.5% to $1,111.75 an ounce, while palladium lost 0.1% to $783.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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