Global Business Growth Eased in May but Employment Picked Up. Global business growth stuttered in May but firms recruited staff at the fastest rate for over seven years. JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output Index, produced with Markit, fell to 53.6 in May from April's 54.2. It has been above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since October 2012. "Although the May PMI suggests that the rate of global economic expansion has slowed further, the implied growth rate remains slightly above the economy's potential and well above what was achieved in Q1," said David Hensley, a director at JPMorgan. "With job creation the highest since late-2007 and new order inflows still solid, there remains scope for GDP to accelerate heading into the third quarter." An employment sub-index rose to 52.9, its highest reading since December 2007. (Reuters)
April Exports Undershoot Expectations on Drop in LNG Prices. External trade data for April further confirms that Malaysian exporters and importers alike are facing difficult times this year. Total trade has been on a decline since mid-2014 and is down 3.0% year-to-date. Both exports and imports recorded steep YoY decreases in April with exports down 8.8% against consensus expectations of a 5.5% drop and imports down 7.0% against expectations for a 0.9% rise. Low commodity prices and poor external demand from a slowing Chinese economy continue to weigh on exports. (See Economic Viewpoint for further views)
OPEC Members Approve Indonesia's Bid to Rejoin. Indonesia has gained approval from all OPEC members for its plan to rejoin the oil exporters group, a statement from Indonesia's energy ministry said on Friday, citing support from Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. "The Saudi Arabian government delegation appreciate and fully support the decision of the Indonesian government to become an OPEC member again, because Indonesia is one of the founders of OPEC," Indonesian Energy Minister Sudirman Said said in the statement. Saudi Arabia is Indonesia's top crude supplier. Naimi will also push for Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco to invest in Indonesia's downstream sector, Said said. (Reuters)
Winter Woes End as U.S. Payrolls Beat Forecast. The American jobs machine has produced a spring spurt to banish the winter weakness. Employers added 280,000 jobs in May, the most in five months, further dispelling fears that a first-quarter slowdown would take hold, figures from the Labor Department showed Friday. That followed a revised 221,000 April advance. Hourly earnings climbed from a year ago by the most since August 2013, while an increase in the number of people entering the labor force caused the unemployment rate to creep up to 5.5% from 5.4%. (Bloomberg)
Consumer Borrowing in U.S. Increased $20.5 Billion in April. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose more than forecast in April, boosted by the biggest increase in revolving credit in a year. The $20.5 billion advance in total borrowing followed a $21.3 billion gain in the prior month that was larger than previously estimated, Federal Reserve figures showed Friday. The median forecast called for a $16 billion rise in consumer borrowing. Non-revolving credit, which includes student and automobile loans, increased at a slower pace. The report signals Americans are becoming more willing to use their credit cards and borrow for large-ticket purchases. (Bloomberg)
German Factory Orders Increase as Economic Outlook Improves. The Bundesbank increased its forecasts for German economic growth this year and next as record-low unemployment and a recovering euro area boost consumption. The upbeat assessment came as data on Friday showed factory orders climbed for a second month in April, rising a better-than-forecast 1.4%. The increase in factory orders in April exceeded the 0.5% median forecast. Export orders from outside the euro region rose 4.7%. Orders for consumer goods gained 4.5% and investment goods rose 2.3%. The German central bank sees gross domestic product increasing 1.7% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. That compares with December predictions of 1% and 1.6%, respectively. (Bloomberg)
CBI Cuts Outlook for UK Economic Growth. Britain’s leading corporate lobby group has insisted the government should press ahead with its austerity drive, despite warnings that another round of deep cuts could dent the recovery. The CBI today joins other forecasters in cutting its outlook for the UK economy after a sharp slowdown at the start of the year. But it believes the weakness will prove to be short-lived and is no reason for the newly elected Conservative government to reconsider plans for another round of cuts. The CBI’s downgrade to the UK outlook follows a similar move by the British Chambers of Commerce last week. It now sees the economy growing 2.3% this year, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%. (The Guardian)
Dollar Rallies on U.S. Jobs Data, Hits 13-Year Peak vs Yen. The U.S. dollar rallied to a 13-year peak against the yen and rose sharply against the euro on Friday after data showing U.S. job growth accelerated in May. After the release of the data, interest rate futures traders bet on a 52% of a rate hike in October. The dollar rose more than 1% against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. The greenback hit 125.740 yen, its highest level in roughly 13 years. The euro was last down 1.25% against the dollar at $1.10985 after hitting a more than two-week high of $1.138000 on Thursday. The dollar was last up 1.02% against the yen at 125.635 yen. The dollar was last up 1.3% against the franc at 0.94575 franc. The dollar index was up 1.14% at 96.557. (Reuters)
Oil Up 2% after Early Swings on Dollar, OPEC. Oil staged its first rally in three days on Friday, gaining 2%, despite warnings of more oversupply as a result of OPEC's decision to keep pumping crude without restraint. A strong dollar, which often depresses commodity prices, failed to stem the late runup in Brent and U.S. crude futures, despite limiting their gains in choppy early trade. Crude's biggest producers and shippers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at a meeting in Vienna to stick to a policy of unconstrained output for another six months. Oil prices rose right after the decision. Brent settled up $1.28, or 2.1%, at $63.31 a barrel, after hitting the April 16 low of $60.94. For the week, it fell 3.6%. U.S. crude jumped $1.13, or almost 2%, to settle at $59.13. It lost 2% on the week. (Reuters)
Gold at 11-Week Low after U.S. Data. Gold hit an 11-week low on Friday, heading for a third straight weekly slide, as the dollar rallied after better-than-expected U.S. employment data bolstered prospects for an interest rate increase this year. Spot gold fell as much as 1.2% to its lowest since March 19 at $1,162.35 an ounce and was down 0.5% at $1,170.66 an ounce by 1855 GMT, heading for a 1.6% weekly fall, the third straight decline and the biggest since April 24. Spot platinum fell 0.5% to $1,090 an ounce. Silver fell 0.1% to $16.04 an ounce, while palladium edged 0.3% lower to $750 an ounce. (Reuters)