Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 15 Jun 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 15 Jun 2015, 09:09 AM

Malaysia

Petronas Adjusts to "Ups and Downs" of Oil. Petronas will continue to implement cost-cutting measures, concentrate on profitable projects, as well as eye opportunistic acquisitions abroad to adjust to the "ups and downs" of oil price. Its Executive Vice-President/Chief Executive Officer of Upstream, Datuk Wee Yeow Hin, said this time people thought the oil price will be soft for a little bit longer. "Therefore all companies, including us, are adjusting our capital expenditure (capex)," he told Bernama. Unlike the previous cycle in 1998/1999 whereby the price stabilised by 2000, and during the 2008 global recession where it went down to US$45 per barrel to recover by 2009, this time there is no indication that the oil price will pick up to US$100 per barrel in the next three to four years. (Bernama)

 

Asia

India’s Economic Data Brings Cheer as Monsoon Worries Mount. India's industrial production output grew more than expected in April, reaching a two-month high, and retail inflation edged up in May, easing concern over an economy facing the worst drought since 2009. Output at factories, mines and utilities grew at an annual rate of 4.1% in April, the fastest pace since February. That was higher than March's 2.5% growth and the 1.6% economists forecasted. Consumer inflation in May rose to 5.01% from 4.87% in the previous month on higher energy costs. Economists polled had expected retail prices to rise 5% year-on-year. (Reuters)

Vietnam Jan-May Actual FDI Up 7.6% at $4.95 Billion. Vietnam received an estimated $4.95 billion in actual foreign direct investment (FDI) in January-May, up 7.6% from the same period in 2014, the Planning and Investment Ministry said on Friday. However, new FDI pledges in the first five months fell 19.4% from a year ago to $2.95 billion, with most of the funds going to processing industries and property projects, the ministry's Foreign Investment Agency said in a statement. FDI inflows are an important source of foreign exchange for Vietnam to offset its trade deficit. (Reuters)

China Economy Showing Signs of Recovery. China's economy grew at a reasonable pace in May as some indicators showed signs of a recovery, a senior official at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday. Zhang Zhibin, a senior statistician at population and employment statistics division, was quoted as saying on the NBS website that China's survey-based urban jobless rate had eased slightly to around 5.1% in May. (Reuters)

 

USA

U.S. Producer Prices Climb as Oil Stabilizes. A gauge of U.S. business prices rose in May as energy prices jumped, a sign inflation is stabilizing. The producer-price index for final demand, which measures prices that businesses receive for their goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% last month from April, the Labor Department said Friday. That was the largest gain since September 2012. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories, rose a more modest 0.1%. Economists surveyed by had expected overall prices to rise 0.4% and core prices to advance 0.1%. (WSJ)

Consumer Sentiment Climbs in June. U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in June, a survey released on Friday showed. The University of Michigan's preliminary June reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 94.6, up from the final reading of 90.7 the month before. It was above the median forecast of 91.5 among economists polled. The survey's barometer of current economic conditions climbed to 106.8 from 100.8 and above a forecast of 96.5. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone Industrial Production Rises Slightly in April. Industrial production in the eurozone rose only slightly in April, an indication that the weakening euro has yet to deliver a significant boost to exporters, and that the currency area’s economic recovery remains modest. The European Union’s statistics agency said on Friday that production by factories, mines and utilities was 0.1% higher than in March, and 0.8% higher than in the same month of last year. That performance indicates the euro’s depreciation since May 2014 has yet to prove a game changer for exporters, among whom manufacturers predominate. (WSJ)

UK Growth Set for Boost as Construction Data Changes Kick In. Britain's economic growth rate last year and in early 2015 looks to have been stronger than previously estimated after the country's statistics office revised the way it measured the construction sector. The pace of growth in GDP in 2014 could rise to 2.9% from a previous reading of 2.8% due to the changes in the construction data, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. In the first three months of 2015, quarterly GDP growth would be 0.4%, up from a previous estimate of 0.3%, assuming no further changes to data covering other areas of the economy such as the far bigger services sector. A new reading of GDP is due on June 30. Construction makes up 6.4% of Britain's economy. (Reuters)

Greek Bailout Talks End without Breakthrough in Brussels. The European Commission said Sunday that weekend talks to find common ground between international creditors and Greece were unsuccessful and left a wide rift that needs to be closed within two weeks to avoid a possible Greek default. An EU Commission official, who refused to be identified because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, said that "the talks did not succeed as there remains a significant gap between the plans of the Greek authorities and" the demands of the international creditors. On top of that, the official said that, for the EU's executive, "the Greek proposals remain incomplete." The official refused to be more precise. (AP)

 

Currencies

Euro on the Defensive as Greek Debt Talks Break Down. The common currency lurched lower first thing in Asia on Monday after efforts on ending a deadlock between Greece and its creditors broke up in failure over the weekend. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1227, retreating further from last week's peak of $1.1387. Against the yen, the euro slid 0.5% to 138.33, well off a recent high of 141.02. Pressure on the euro helped the dollar index edge up 0.2% to 95.101, pulling it away from a near one-month trough of 94.322 set last week. The greenback was subdued against the yen, slipping a mere 0.1% to 123.29. Other major currencies also got off to a quiet start with the Australian dollar holding on to last week's 1.2% gain. (Reuters)

IMF Team in China as Part of Currency Basket Review. A team from the International Monetary Fund is visiting China as part of the global lender's review over whether to include the Chinese yuan in its basket of currencies, an IMF official said on Friday. An official said the IMF's review of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket was "under way and the technical work is still at an early stage." Beijing is pushing to get the yuan included in the SDR basket, which could raise its standing in the global financial system. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Weekly Gain Cut on Saudi Output Worry. Oil slid on Friday for a second day, giving back more of the week's gains as investors took profits on worries that higher Saudi Arabia output would feed the global supply glut. The number of oil rigs in the United States notched another weekly decline, but crude prices did not move much on the data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. Crude rebounded early in the week, but the rally stalled on Thursday as the dollar strengthened against the euro due to developments in Greece's debt crisis, which still dominated sentiment on global markets on Friday. Brent crude settled down $1.24, or 2%, at $63.87. For the week, Brent ended up 0.7%. U.S. crude fell 81 cents, or 1.3%, to $59.96. It rose 1.5% on the week. (Reuters)

Gold Flat as Dollar Offsets Weak Equities. Gold inched lower on Friday, shrugging off the slightly weaker dollar, lower equity markets and uncertainty over the Greek debt crisis, as traders were cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting this week. Spot gold eased 0.2% to $1,179.75 an ounce by 1854 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down $1.20 at $1,179.20 an ounce. Silver was down 1.1% at $15.86 an ounce, while platinum fell 1.4% to $1,090 an ounce and palladium lost 1.2% to $734.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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