Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 16 Jun 2015

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Publish date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015, 09:15 AM

Global

U.S. Fast-Track Vote Leaves Pacific Trade Pact Talks in Limbo. The effort to get U.S. trade legislation through Congress, clearing the way for progress on an Asia-Pacific trade accord, is in limbo once again. The U.S. House of Representatives on Friday shot down a proposal to give President Barack Obama authority to negotiate global trade deals for congressional approval or rejection, without amendments. House lawmakers approved trade negotiating power for the president, 219-211. But they rejected a proposal to renew federal aid for workers who lose their jobs due to imports, by a vote of 302-126. Rules required that the House approve both parts of the legislation, previously approved by the Senate, so the "No" vote meant defeat for the overall package. (AP)

 

Malaysia

1MDB Pays from RM2.4 Billion Annually to Service Debt. 1Malaysia Development Bhd pays interest of between RM2.4 billion and RM2.7 billion a year to service its RM42 billion debt, Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Mohamad Hanadzlah told Parliament today. On calls for MoF to give the green light to audit firm Deloitte to start auditing 1MDB's financial accounts for the year ended March 31, 2015, Ahmad Husni said the government wants Deloitte to audit 1MDB, but for now the audit firm was busy auditing Edra Global Energy Bhd. Edra Global is 1MDB’s power unit, because the government wants to monetise it. (The Edge)

 

Asia

Singapore Q1 Employment Declines, First Drop since 2009. Singapore's employment shrank for the first time in nearly six years in the January-March quarter, as jobs growth in the services sector fell sharply and manufacturers cut jobs. Overall employment contracted by 6,100 in the first quarter, after rising by 40,700 jobs in the fourth quarter and increasing by 28,300 a year ago, the Ministry of Manpower said on Monday. It was the first quarterly contraction in employment since the second quarter of 2009. Singapore's economy contracted that year, hit by the global financial crisis. The first quarter employment figure was revised down from an advance estimate of an increase of 300 jobs released in May. (Reuters)

Indonesia Posts Solid May Trade Surplus, but Imports Tumble Again. Indonesia posted a surprisingly strong May trade surplus but also another sharp drop in imports, which could reflect weak consumer demand ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. There was a trade surplus of $950 million, the sixth straight surplus and more than double expectations, evidence that the current account deficit should narrow in the second quarter. A large current account deficit has been one of Indonesia's top economic problems. Overall imports for Southeast Asia's largest economy contracted 21.40% from a year earlier. (Reuters)

South Korea Considers Supplementary Budget as MERS Risks Grow. South Korea is considering issuing a supplementary budget to bolster a flagging economy, its finance minister said on Monday, as the spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has subdued domestic demand at a time when exports are struggling. The government could wait until the end of June before deciding whether the economy needs extra stimulus. (Reuters)

 

USA

Factory Output Down in May, Hurt by Oil Refining Cuts. U.S. factory output slipped in May, hurt by a decline in oil refining that overshadowed solid gains by automakers. The Federal Reserve said Monday that manufacturing output declined 0.2% last month, as productivity has basically been flat since January. Manufacturing has been hurt by the stronger dollar, higher oil prices reducing equipment orders and activity at refiners, and previously by cold winter weather at the start of the year. Overall industrial production, which also includes utilities and mining, fell 0.2% in May. Mining activity that covers oil and natural gas drilling tumbled for the fifth straight month. (AP)

Homebuilders' Confidence in Sales Surges in June. U.S. homebuilders are feeling more confident about their sales prospects than they have since last fall, while their outlook for sales over the next six months is at the highest level in 10 years. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday climbed to 59 this month, up five points from 54 the May reading. Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good rather than poor. The latest reading is up 10 points from a year ago and is at the highest level since September. (AP)

Manufacturing in New York State Shrinks in June. Factory activity in New York state contracted in June, a sign that manufacturers are likely still held back by a strong dollar and cutbacks in investment by oil and gas drillers. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that its Empire State manufacturing index fell to negative 2 this month, down from plus 3 in May. Any reading above zero indicates expansion. A measure of new orders also fell into negative territory, evidence that factory output in the state may remain low. (AP)

 

Europe

Eurozone Trade Surplus Widens in April. The eurozone's trade surplus widened in April as imports fell, but the growth of exports slowed in a fresh sign the weakened euro is delivering only a modest boost to the currency area's economic recovery. The European Union's statistics agency said on Monday that the eurozone had a surplus in its trade in goods with the rest of the world of €24.9 billion ($28.05 billion), up from €14.9 billion in April 2014. Adjusting for seasonality, exports rose 1.1%, a slower pace than in March, while imports fell 1.6%, having jumped the previous month. (Dow Jones)

ECB Will Keep Funding Lifeline for Greece Open if Banks Solvent. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday that the ECB would keep approving funding for Greek banks provided they are solvent, calling for a "quantum leap" in the way the euro zone was organized. Draghi's remarks come after months of chaotic negotiations. As the talks go on, it has fallen to the ECB to keep Greece afloat, by allowing the country and its lenders to run up an ever-higher overdraft with the euro zone. "Liquidity will continue to be extended as long as Greek banks are solvent and have sufficient collateral," Draghi told the European Parliament. But he signaled that there were limits to such assistance, which is now tipping 118 billion euros. Among those are rules that prohibit direct funding of governments by central banks. (Reuters)

Bank of Russia Cuts Key Interest Rate to 11.5%. The Bank of Russia cut interest rates on Monday for the fourth time this year to check Russia’s economic contraction, but the central bank warned that inflationary risks limit the scope for further monetary easing. The bank cut its key rate by one percentage point to 11.5%, in line with expectations, bringing its total cuts so far this year to 5.5 percentage points. “The latest studies show that a decline in inflationary expectations has slowed recently,” said Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank’s chairwoman. (WSJ)

 

Currencies

Euro Erases Early Losses as Greece Knocks Down Report. The euro erased losses on Monday as the shock of a failed negotiation on Sunday between Greece and its creditors faded and investors turned their focus toward a U.S. rate decision later in the week. The euro zone finance minister's meeting on Thursday now takes on a greater role for potentially solving the impasse. The euro traded up 0.25% to a session high $1.12950 on the EBS trading platform, from the session low of $1.11890. Against the yen, the euro slipped 0.10%, trading at 138.91 yen. At one point the euro fell to 1.0422 Swiss francs, its lowest since June 3, before recovering to trade at 1.0530, a gain of 0.62%.

 

Commodities

Oil Slips on Greece Concerns as July Brent Expires. Oil prices fell in volatile trading on Monday as the Greek debt crisis raised concerns about demand for petroleum in Europe and as the U.N. started talks to try to bring peace to Yemen, where OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia is involved in a civil war. Expiring front-month July Brent fell $1.26 to settle and go off the board at $62.61 a barrel. August Brent fell 69 cents to settle at $63.95. July U.S. crude fell 44 cents to settle at $59.52, after trading from $58.73 to $59.98. The spread between Brent and U.S. crude shrank to $2.65 a barrel intraday, the narrowest since January. (Reuters)

Gold Rises as Weak Dollar Support Prices. Gold rose on Monday, buoyed by chart-based buying and the weak U.S. dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting while persistent uncertainty over Greece after debt talks with its creditors stalled underpinned prices. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,186.60 an ounce by 1921 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled up $6.60 an ounce at $1,185.80. Silver was up 1.2% at $16.11 an ounce, while platinum fell to a six-year low of $1,072.50 an ounce and palladium lost 0.5% to $733 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

 

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