Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits -18 Jun 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 18 Jun 2015, 09:21 AM

Malaysia

MITI Optimistic of Export Growth. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry is optimistic of the country's export growth this year despite the challenging economic environment. MITI minister, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, said new industries such as aerospace, medical devices and knowledge-intensive sectors would be given priority to uplift the economy. The ministry would focus on these sectors to reap their potential growth, he told reporters at a briefing on the Eleventh Malaysia Plan (11MP) by the Economic Planning Unit. Official forecasts put export growth between 2% -3% this year. (Bernama)

BNM Measures On Loans Showing Positive Effect. The tightening measures on loans implemented by Bank Negara Malaysia in 2013 are helping to narrow the gap between property price growth and income growth, Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Chua Tee Yong said. "It is important to take note that while we hope to have growth in the property market, because there are a lot of multiplier effects, what we don't want to see is that a lot of the people were unable to acquire homes because pricing keeps on jumping higher than income growth," he told reporters after launching the 19th Malaysian Banking Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Wednesday. (Bernama)

 

Asia

Singapore Exports Fall 0.2% in May. Singapore’s overseas sales unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months. Non-oil domestic exports fell 0.2% in May from a year earlier as shipments of petrochemicals and electronics declined, data on Wednesday showed. That compares with the median estimate for a 2.3% gain. The exports decline follows steep falls in the value of shipments from Asian economies including Indonesia and India amid lower commodity prices and weak demand in developed nations. (Bloomberg)

Economists Trim Singapore 2015 Growth, Inflation Forecasts. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) expects GDP to expand 2.7% this year, down from 2.8% growth expected in a survey published in March. The survey showed that non-oil domestic exports in 2015 are now expected to grow 2.6%, up from 1.6% in the previous MAS survey. The MAS survey showed that economists expect GDP growth in the second quarter to come in at 2.7% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously. (Reuters)

New Zealand Q1 Growth Slows on Drought, Oil. New Zealand's economy slowed markedly in the first quarter as drought hit farming and low prices hit oil production and exploration, offsetting strong domestic activity. The economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in the quarter, the lowest quarterly rate in two years, according to Statistics New Zealand, against economists' and the central bank forecast of 0.6%. The annual growth rate eased to 2.6% from the previous quarter's seven-year high of 3.5%. Economists had expected 3.0%. (Reuters)

 

USA

Fed Sticks to Course, Trims GDP Forecast. The FOMC message is that the Fed is still on course for hiking rates later this year. The Fed has said it anticipates that the economic data will allow it to raise rates later this year. Chairman Janet Yellen said that far too much attention is being placed on the timing of the first rate hike when what's far more important is the pace of tightening, and at this point it's projected to be quite slow. The Fed dot plots imply two rate hikes this year. Just 2 out of 17 FOMC members see the central bank holding off on rate hikes until 2016. (See Economic Viewpoint)

Fed Says U.S. Economy Strong Enough to Handle Rate Hike. The U.S. economy is growing moderately after a winter swoon and likely strong enough to support an interest rate increase by the end of the year, but concerns remain over the recovery of the labor market, U.S. Federal Reserve officials said on Wednesday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, however, emphasized that the rate decision was still up in the air and rested squarely on further improvement in the labor market - renewing her focus on a longstanding concern. (Reuters)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Hit 8-Month High. Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as interest rates rose to their highest since October 2014.The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 5.5% in the week ended June 12. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 6.9% to the lowest level since January. (Reuters)

 

Europe

U.K. Wage Growth Accelerates as Jobless Rate Holds at 5.5%. U.K. unemployment stayed at is lowest rate since 2008 and wage growth accelerated more than economists forecast in a sign the labor market is gathering momentum. Unemployment fell 43,000 to 1.81 million in the three months through April, leaving the jobless rate at 5.5%, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Total wages grew by 2.7%, the most since August 2011. Pay excluding bonuses increased at the same pace. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Drops after Fed Signals Later Move on Rate Hikes. The dollar dropped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rate increases may start later than many have anticipated and trimmed its U.S. economic forecasts. The dollar was off more than 1% against the Swiss franc and sterling, while the euro climbed against the dollar, and was last up 0.75%. The euro, which has been weighed down by worries about Greece possibly defaulting on its debt, was last at $1.1327, while the dollar index was down 0.75%. The British pound touched its highest level against the dollar since November, and was up 1.20% to $1.5826. The pound was helped by data showing wages in Britain were growing faster than forecast. The Swiss franc was last up 1.15% against the dollar, at 0.9215 franc. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Brent Edges Up, U.S. Crude Off Low as Fed Weakens Dollar. Brent crude edged up and U.S. crude eased on Wednesday in volatile trading as both contracts trimmed losses after the Federal Reserve left the outlook for interest rate increases uncertain, brokers and analysts said. The dollar index weakened, helping dollar-denominated crude recover. Brent August crude rose 17 cents to settle at $63.87, having swung from $62.60 to $65.47 and ending back below its 50-day moving average of $64.16. U.S. crude for July delivery dipped 5 cents to settle at $59.92, having traded from $58.85 to $61.38. (Reuters)

Gold Turns Higher after Fed Statement. Gold turned higher on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy is likely strong enough to support an interest rate increase by the end of 2015, causing the dollar to extend losses. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $1,187.76 an ounce by 1843 GMT, after trading lower prior to the Fed statement. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down $4.10 at $1,176.80 an ounce. Platinum fell to its lowest since April 2009 at $1,066.50 an ounce amid a deterioration in investor sentiment, mostly in the eurozone. It was trading at the cheapest to gold since January 2013, with a discount of more than $105. Silver was up 1.3% at $16.22 an ounce, while palladium fell 1.7% to $721.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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