Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 26 Jun 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 26 Jun 2015, 09:36 AM

Malaysia

No Electricity Tariff Hike on July 1. There will be no electricity tariff hike in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and the Federal Territory of Labuan under the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) review period from July 1 to Dec 31, 2015, says the Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry. The decision not to raise the tariffs under the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through review period was made at a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the ministry said in a statement today. The ICPT rebate of 2.25 sen/kWh for Peninsular Malaysia and the reduction of the tariff by an average of 1.20 sen/kWh for Sabah and the Federal Territory of Labuan will remain, it said. (Bernama)

Customs Reports RM22.5 Billion Collected until June 24. The Royal Malaysian Customs Department had collected RM22.5 billion in tax revenue for the period from January until June 24, 2015. Deputy director-general of Customs (Enforcement and Compliance), Datuk Matrang Suhaili said the collection figure met 49.5% of the overall collection target of RM45.4 billion this year. "If the trend continues, the Customs department will not have many problems in achieving the target revenue collection by year-end. “In fact, we are positive of achieving the tax collection target as early as this October," he said. (Bernama)

 

Asia

China Moves to Scrap Rule Limiting Bank Loans to 75% of Deposits. China’s cabinet moved to scrap a rule that caps lending by commercial banks at 75% of their deposits, a measure that will help boost credit expansion as the nation looks to revive economic growth. The State Council will propose amending the nation’s banking law to make the limit a ratio used for reference rather than a regulatory statute, according to a statement posted to its website Wednesday. A system will be set up to monitor the liquidity of banks based on the ratio, it added. Changes to the law need to be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. (Bloomberg)

El Nino Threatens Modi Inflation Hopes. The El Nino strengthening across the Pacific Ocean is threatening to curb India’s monsoon rainfall and hamper Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances of capping food costs. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology predicts a “large-scale reduction” during the first half of July that may disrupt sowing and stunt growth of rice, cotton and soybeans after a wetter-than-normal June that caused Mumbai’s worst floods in 10 years. The Reserve Bank of India said it’s closely watching the rains after identifying a monsoon shortfall as the biggest risk to the economy that depends on agriculture for about 15% of GDP. (Bloomberg)

Japan May Household Spending Posts First Rise in More Than a Year. Japan's household spending rose more than expected in May to mark the first annual increase in more than a year, data showed on Friday, a sign consumers are finally resuming spending after last year's sales tax hike pinched their wallets. Household spending rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier, more than a median market forecast for a 3.4% gain, data by the Internal Affairs Ministry showed. (Reuters)

Taiwan Holds Interest Rate Steady Despite Export Weakness. Taiwan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.875% Thursday after its quarterly policy meeting, citing the need to support financial stability and prices and help economic growth. The decision, which was as expected, means the trade-reliant economy will continue an accommodative stance in monetary policy but may have to look to fiscal and structural steps to bolster domestic growth. (Reuters)

South Korea Draws Up $13 Billion Budget Boost. South Korea announced a financial package of more than 15 trillion won ($13 billion) on Thursday, including a supplementary budget, designed to boost growth as a deadly outbreak of the MERS virus adds pressure on the already shaky economy. Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan said although there were concerns a supplementary budget could hurt fiscal soundness, it would be better for the economy long-term. (Reuters)

 

Americas

Consumer Spending in U.S. Shows Biggest Gain in Almost Six Years. Household spending climbed in May by the most in almost six years, buoyed by gains in incomes as the U.S. job market strengthened. Purchases increased 0.9%, the biggest gain since August 2009, after rising 0.1% in April, Commerce Department figures showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 75 economists called for a 0.7% advance. Incomes rose 0.5% for a second month. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Modestly. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased modestly last week, but labor market conditions continued to tighten. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended June 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. It was the 16th straight week that claims held below 300,000, a threshold usually associated with a firming labor market. (Reuters)

U.S. Services Flash PMI Slows in June. The U.S. services sector grew at a slower pace for a third straight month in June, as rates of expansion in both new business and hiring eased. Financial firm Markit said the "flash," or preliminary, reading of its Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector slipped to 54.8 in June, from a final reading of 56.2 in May and short of expectations that called for a 56.7 reading. A mark above 50 signals expansion in economic activity. Markit's June reading of new business at service companies fell to 55 from the final reading of 55.7 in May. (Reuters)

Brazil's Unemployment Hits Highest since 2010. Brazil's unemployment rate climbed for a fifth straight month and wages fell in May, government data showed on Thursday, adding to signs of a painful recession. Brazil's non-seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose in May to 6.7%, the highest since 2010, statistics agency IBGE said. The latest number was slightly above the median forecast of 6.6% in a poll of 27 economists. The unemployment rate has risen without interruption from a record low of 4.3% in December, pushed up by hundreds of thousands of layoffs. (Reuters)

 

Europe

German Consumers Gloomier Going into July. German shoppers became more cautious for the first time since October as they headed into July, with alarm about Greece sapping consumers' confidence, GfK market research group said on Thursday. The GfK consumer sentiment indicator, based on a survey of 2,000 Germans, dropped to 10.1 going into July from 10.2 in June, below the consensus forecast for an unchanged reading of 10.2. Rolf Buerkl, an analyst at GfK, said up until now it had seemed that talks on finding a solution to the Greek debt crisis would not have a lasting impact on confidence but a Greek exit from the euro zone had now become plausible. (Reuters)

Eurogroup Meeting on Greece Over, Set For Resumption on Saturday. The Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers charged with finding a solution on Greece ended on Thursday without a deal, with a resumption of their talks set for Saturday. Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the door was still open for Greece to accept the proposals of its creditors, adding that the meeting was over for now. A eurozone official later said that the next Eurogroup meeting was set for Saturday morning. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar falls, but is Still On Track to Finish The Week Higher. The dollar weakened slightly against most of its rivals on Thursday, but remained on track to finish the week with modest gains. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index was up 1.2% on the week to 95.1710. The market was eerily placid, barely reacting as Greece and its creditors decided to put off negotiations on a deal to release Greek bailout funds until the weekend. What little volatility there was occurred early in the session, when the euro abruptly fell to daily a low of $1.1153 after reports that a meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers ended after less than an hour. The dollar was slightly weaker against the pound , down 0.0254% and the yen, down 0.09%. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Crude Down Again on Oil Products Weakness. Crude oil fell for a second straight day on Thursday, weighed by weaker U.S. refined fuels markets and potential negative impact from Greece's debt crisis on European energy demand. Worries of a possible glut emerging in U.S. gasoline and diesel supply after large builds in both last week added to concerns that millions of barrels of Nigerian crude were floating around the Atlantic Basin looking for buyers. Brent crude settled down 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $63.20 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate or WTI, fell 57 cents, or almost 1%, to end at $59.70. (Reuters)

Gold Falls for Fifth Straight Day. Gold eased for the fifth straight session on Thursday as traders awaited further news on Greece's negotiations with its creditors, while caution over the metal's longer-term outlook weighed on interest. Expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to increase interest rates for first time in nearly a decade have pressured gold this year, keeping it in a narrow range. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,172.95 an ounce at 1932 GMT, little changed from the previous session. Silver was down 0.4% at $15.86 an ounce. Spot platinum was up 0.8% at $1,079.25 an ounce, and spot palladium was down 2.3% at $677.25 an ounce. Palladium fell to its lowest since July 2013 earlier, having broken through key chart support last week. Prices have slid more than 14% this year so far, hurt by perceptions that supply of the white metal is plentiful. (Reuters)

 

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