Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 2 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Thu, 02 Jul 2015, 09:42 AM

Global

Asian Factory Growth Stays Weak, Europe and U.S. Sluggish. Global manufacturing growth slowed last month with most Asian economies remaining weak, while Greece's woes kept euro zone factories in check and U.S. manufacturing turned in a mixed performance. JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, produced with private data vendor Markit, slipped to 51.0 in June from 51.3 in May, matching April's near two-year low. However, June was the 31st month the index has been above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Fitch Lifts Petronas' Outlook to Stable. Fitch Ratings yesterday revised Petroliam Nasional Bhd's outlook to "stable" from "negative", with an "A" credit rating, in line with its review for Malaysia. The rating agency said despite the heavy financial commitments imposed by the government, along with weakened oil and gas prices, Petronas continues to maintain a strong standalone credit profile. "Its leverage, as measured by funds from operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage, was negative at 0.7 times (a net cash position), and its FFO interest coverage was at 49 times for 2014," it noted. Fitch expects Petronas to pay lower dividends of RM26 billion in 2015 compared with RM29 billion in 2014, but it pointed out that the Malaysian government is unlikely to accept a materially lower dividend over the foreseeable future. (The Sun)

Malaysia June Manufacturing PMI hits 32-Month Low as Domestic Orders Slump. Data from the Markit Malaysia Purchasing Managers' Index for June showed a reading of 47.6, the weakest reading in 32 months and under the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. Output declined at the quickest rate in two-and-a-half years, with marked fall in new orders. The fall was mainly attributed to weaker domestic demand, while new export orders remained marginally in growth territory. (Reuters)

 

Asia

South Korean Exports Fall for the 6th Straight Month. South Korean exports declined for a sixth straight month in June, keeping policymakers under pressure as they sought to inject billions of dollars of fresh stimulus into an economy reeling from a one-two punch of weak domestic and global demand. Exports fell 1.8% in June from a year earlier while imports tumbled 13.6%, the trade ministry data showed on Wednesday. As a result, the trade surplus nearly doubled to a record $10.2 billion from $5.4 billion a year before. For the three months to June, exports fell 6.9% on-year, the worst decline since the third quarter of 2009. (Reuters)

India's Manufacturing PMI Shrinks in June. India's manufacturing sector eased in June due to weak growth in new business inflows as companies took a cautious line on hiring. The HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.3 in June from 52.6 in May, amid slowest rise in new orders since September 2014. This is as new businesses expanded at a noticeably weaker pace, in part reflecting a loss of momentum in export business. (Reuters)

Indonesian Manufacturing Contracts for 9th Straight Month. Indonesia's manufacturing activity contracted for the ninth straight month in June on persistent declines in new orders and production. The Nikkei/Markit Indonesia purchasing manager's index (PMI) rose slightly to 47.8 in June from 47.1 in May. However, while new orders from abroad contracted for the ninth straight month, the rate of decline was the slowest since February. (Reuters)

Indonesia’s Inflation Rate Rises in June. Indonesia's annual inflation rate accelerated to 7.26% in June, the fastest pace since December, due to higher food and tobacco prices, the statistics bureau said on Wednesday. The consumer price index increased 0.54% in June from a month earlier, the data showed. Annual core inflation, which excludes administered price and volatile food prices, was unchanged in June at 5.04% from the previous month. (Reuters)

Thai June Consumer Prices Fall for Sixth Straight Month. Thailand's annual consumer prices dropped for a sixth straight month in June, mainly due to lower energy prices. The index, published by the Commerce Ministry, declined 1.07% in June from a year earlier, in line with a poll forecast for a 1.0% drop. The ministry said on Wednesday there was no deflation yet and it expected positive headline CPI in the last quarter of this year. The core inflation rate, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.94% in June, the same as in May. (Reuters)

 

USA

Factories End Quarter on a Broad Upswing. U.S. manufacturers ended the second quarter on stable footing, reporting a strong flow of orders that could help support the overall economy in coming months. The Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday that its purchasing managers’ index edged up to 53.5 in June from 52.8 in May. The index, based on a survey of supply-chain executives, is back up to its January reading after stalling in the early spring. A reading above 50 denotes expansion in the sector. Bradley J. Holcomb, who oversees the ISM survey, said the manufacturing sector has turned the corner. “We’re in good shape for the rest of the year,” he said. (WSJ)

Businesses Step Up Hiring in June to 237,000. U.S. businesses added jobs at a robust pace in June, a private survey found, evidence that rising consumer spending and a healthy housing market are supporting more hiring. Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added 237,000 jobs last month, up from 203,000 in May. That is the most since December, according to the ADP's tally. Construction firms added 19,000 jobs last month, while retail, shipping and utility companies gained 50,000. (AP)

Construction Spending Rises 0.8% in May. U.S. construction spending posted a solid gain in May, pushing total activity to the highest point since the fall of 2008, with the strength led by a big jump in non-residential projects. Total construction spending increased 0.8% in May, following an even bigger 2.1% advance in April, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The gains pushed totaled activity to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.04 trillion, the highest level since October 2008. (AP)

 

Europe

Eurozone Manufacturing Hits 14-Month High. Manufacturing activity in the eurozone hit a 14-month high in June, as growth accelerated in Germany, France and the Netherlands. Data firm Markit, which surveys more than 3,000 manufacturers across the region, said its purchasing managers index rose to 52.5 in June from 52.2 in May, confirming its flash estimate from June 23. A reading below 50.0 indicates activity is declining, while a reading above that level implies it is increasing. The survey indicates that the recent standoff between the Greek government and its international creditors over the terms of its bailout hasn't yet impaired growth in the wider eurozone. (WSJ)

UK Manufacturing Hits Two-Year Low in June. British manufacturing growth slowed unexpectedly to its weakest rate in more than two years in June, dented by subdued export demand from Europe in the face of a strong pound. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 51.4, the weakest reading since April 2013, from a downwardly revised 51.9 in May. The slowdown in manufacturing means Britain's economy will become even more reliant on other sectors, such as services, to drive growth, said data company Markit. (Reuters)

Greece Proceeds with Vote Plan as Creditors Rebuff Overture. The Greek government vowed Wednesday to go ahead with plans to have the people decide whether they want more austerity measures in exchange for a rescue deal. Greece offered more concessions to its creditors, but was rebuffed. The moves came on a fast-paced day of zigs-and-zags that saw the Greek prime minister back off his earlier refusal to consider creditors' belt-tightening demands, yet hold firm on putting the measures to a popular vote. The strategy was met with a cool response. Following a late-night teleconference, the 19 eurozone finance ministers announced they were putting any further talks on hold. (AP)

 

Currencies

Dollar Takes Center Stage as Data Looms, Greek Worries Fester. The dollar stayed bid early in Asia on Thursday as the market geared up for a deluge of U.S. data that could back expectations for the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates sooner rather than later. The euro, meanwhile, remained under a cloud with Greece's debt crisis unlikely to be resolved before Sunday's referendum. The dollar index came within a whisker of a three-week peak set on Monday. It last stood at 96.321, following a 0.8% gain on Wednesday. Against the yen, the greenback fetched 123.22, pulling further away from a five-week trough of 121.93. The euro slipped to $1.1044, continuing to retreat from Monday's high of $1.1279. (Reuters)

Ringgit Jumps as Fitch Affirms Malaysia’s Rating. The Malaysian ringgit led gains among emerging Asian currencies on Wednesday, after Fitch Ratings maintained the country's sovereign ratings, erasing concerns about a possible downgrade because of state fund 1MDB's debt problems. The spot ringgit rose as much as 1.2% to 3.7270 per dollar, its strongest since June 22, in the local market. Other Malaysian assets also rose. Kuala Lumpur stocks jumped 1.8%, while the 10-year bond yield slid to 3.984%, its lowest since June 4. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

U.S. Crude Prices Tumble Most since April on Surprise Stock Build. U.S. crude prices fell 4% on Wednesday, posting their biggest daily drop since April after oil stockpiles in the United States rose for the first time in more than two months. The selloff was a jolt to crude traders and investors who have seen U.S. prices in fairly tight trading ranges over the past 10 weeks versus sharper moves down in European oil. U.S. crude settled down $2.51, or 4.2%, at $56.96 a barrel. It's biggest slide before that was on April 8. Brent crude closed down $1.58, or 2.5%, at $62.01. That pushed U.S. crude's differential to Brent, one of the biggest plays in the oil market, to a discount of more than $5, the largest in three weeks. (Reuters)

Gold Drops on Strong Dollar. Gold fell on Wednesday, as the dollar strengthened and hopes for progress in the Greek crisis revived after the country told international creditors Athens could accept their bailout offer if some conditions were changed. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,169.10 an ounce at 1939 GMT, still near the previous session's low of $1,166.35. Spot palladium prices were up 4.2% at $697.50 an ounce, their biggest jump in two years in a bounce viewed as corrective after falling 14% in June, but also spurred by strong U.S. June auto sales. Silver fell 1% to $15.59 an ounce and platinum was up 0.4% at $1,079.25. (Reuters)

 

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