Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Jul 2015

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Publish date: Fri, 03 Jul 2015, 09:29 AM

Asia

Singapore June Factory Activity at 7-month High, Electronics Expands. Activity at Singapore's factories hit a seven-month high in June thanks to an increase in new orders, with the key electronics sector returning to growth. The Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management's Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.4, the highest since November. The PMI in May stood at 50.2. A reading above 50 indicates activity is expanding, while one below the level points contraction. (Reuters)

Indonesian Consumers Less Optimistic in June. Indonesian consumers were less optimistic in June than the previous month as they expect the economy to continue to slow in the next six months, a Bank Indonesia survey showed. The central bank's consumer confidence index fell to 111.3 year-on-year in June from 112.8 in May. A reading above 100 indicates consumers are optimistic. The "present situation" and "expectation" indices also declined in June from May, and consumers became less optimistic over job availability and income in the next six months. (Reuters)

More Japan Households Feel Better Off, Spending More. More Japanese households feel they are better off than a year ago and are spending more in anticipation that their income will rise, a quarterly Bank of Japan survey showed, in a sign that improved consumption will underpin a moderate economic recovery. An index measuring households' sentiment concerning current economic conditions improved for two straight quarters in June, with more than half of the respondents citing rising family income, according to the survey released on Thursday. The upbeat mood came despite rising living costs and expectations of higher prices ahead. Of those surveyed, 86.3% said prices were higher than a year ago, up from 84% in March. (Reuters)

 

USA

Unemployment Falls To 7-Year Low, But Wages Are Flat. U.S. unemployment fell to a seven-year low of 5.3% and employers hired at a solid pace in June, but other gauges of the job market drew a bleaker picture: A wave of people stopped looking for work, and paychecks failed to budge. The economy gained 223,000 jobs last month, and unemployment edged down from 5.5% in May, the Labor Department reported. That is the lowest jobless rate since April 2008, when it was 5%. (AP)

U.S. Factory Orders Fell 1 % in May. Orders to U.S. factories fell in May by the largest amount in three months, while a key category that signals business investment plans dropped for a second month. Factory orders declined 1% in May from April, when orders retreated 0.7%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Orders in a category that serves as a proxy for business investment were down 0.4%. American factories have struggled this year because a strong dollar has made U.S. goods more expensive overseas, hurting American exports. Falling energy prices have also trigged sharp cutbacks in investment spending by oil companies. (AP)

 

Europe

Eurozone Inflationary Pressures at Four-Year High. Eurozone inflationary pressures are at a four-year high, suggesting the European Central Bank's trillion-euro bond-buying programme is working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Thursday. The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, rose to 100.4 in May from April's 100.2. However, inflation softened in the bloc during June to 0.2% year-on-year, moving away from the European Central Bank's target of close to 2%, official data showed on Tuesday. (Reuters)

Riksbank Cut Rates Deeper into Negative to Cap Gains in Krona. Sweden’s central bank unexpectedly lowered its main interest rate deeper into negative territory to limit krona gains as it struggles to avoid deflation. The repo rate was cut to minus 0.35% from minus 0.25%, the Stockholm-based bank said in a statement. The bank also expanded its bond purchasing program by 45 billion kronor ($5.3 billion). Swedish policy makers have unleashed unprecedented measures this year, including outright bond purchases, to jolt the largest Nordic economy out of disinflation. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Slips After U.S. Jobs Data Signals Later Fed Rate Hike. The U.S. dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies on Thursday after U.S. jobs data lagged expectations, pushing out bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike to 2016, while caution ahead of this weekend's Greek referendum limited losses. The euro was last up 0.31% against the dollar at $1.10870 after hitting a session high of $1.11220 after the jobs data. The dollar was last down 0.08% against the yen at 123.055 yen after hitting a session low of 122.970 yen. The dollar was 0.47% lower against the Swiss franc at 0.94355 franc after hitting a session low of 0.94205 franc. The dollar index was last down 0.26% at 96.054. (Reuters)

Asia Forex Cautious Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data. Most emerging Asian currencies slid on Thursday, on expectations that upcoming U.S. economic data such as June jobs figures may cement expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates as soon as September. The South Korean won slumped after the country's current account surplus in May shrank to an eight-month low. Elsewhere, China's yuan skidded on strong corporate dollar demand and after the central bank set the official guidance rate at a three-week low. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Flat as U.S. Rig Count Rise Cools Gains. Crude oil prices ended little changed on Thursday as the first weekly gain in the U.S. rig count this year pared earlier gains. The latest data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes showed that the number of rigs drilling for oil rose by 12 this week, the first rise since December. Oil was lifted early when tame U.S. jobs and economic data signaled the Federal Reserve might be less hasty to raise interest rates. But with the Greek debt crisis unresolved and Iran nuclear talks ongoing, coupled with Friday's Fourth of July holiday making for a longer-than-usual weekend, some caution prevailed, limiting the rally. Brent crude rose 6 cents to settle at $62.07 a barrel, after trading from $61.90 to $63.20. U.S. crude dipped 3 cents to settle at $56.93, trading from $56.65 to $57.95. It tumbled 4% in the previous session, the most since April, after a surprise inventory build last week. (Reuters)

Gold at 3.5-Month Low ahead of U.S. Payrolls Data. Gold fell to a 3.5- month low on Thursday, extending losses into a third straight session on a strong dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data that could support expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The market was also following developments in the Greek debt crisis, which as yet has failed to trigger strong retail demand for the metal, often perceived as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold slid to $1,159.60 an ounce, its lowest since March 18, and was trading 0.7% down at $1,161.06 by 1155 GMT. It has lost about 1% in the previous two sessions. Silver rose 0.3% to $15.57 an ounce, after losing 1.3% in the previous session. Palladium fell 0.4% to $693.75 and platinum dropped 0.6% to $1,073.65. (Reuters)

 

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