Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Aug 2015

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Publish date: Mon, 03 Aug 2015, 09:32 AM

Global

Pacific Rim Free Trade Talks Fall Short Of Deal. Pacific Rim trade ministers failed to clinch a deal on Friday to free up trade between a dozen nations after a dispute flared up over auto trade between Japan and North America, New Zealand dug in over dairy trade and no agreement was reached on monopoly periods for next-generation drugs. New Zealand has said it will not back a deal that does not significantly open dairy markets. Japan and the United States ran into problems trying to get buy-in from Canada and Mexico, which are closely tied in to the U.S. auto industry. (Reuters)

 

Malaysia

Broad Money Up as Lending to Businesses Improves in June. Monetary conditions in June were stable with a slight increase in money supply growth after two slow months. Broad money or M3 expanded 6.0% YoY and 0.4% MoM helped by a healthy increase in claims on the private sector and a slight monthly rebound in net foreign assets. On a YoY basis, however, net foreign assets fell 2.4%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline on heavy capital outflows. System-wide loan growth edged higher in June to 9.1% YoY while deposit growth slowed to 7.7% YoY. (See Economic Viewpoint)

 

Asia

China July Factory Growth Unexpectedly Stalls. Growth at China's big manufacturing companies unexpectedly stalled in July as demand at home and abroad weakened. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.0 in July, compared to the previous month's 50.2. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Both export and domestic orders shrank for the large firms, and in response they continued to cut jobs. (Reuters)

Taiwan Q2 GDP Estimate Slashed on Weak Exports. Taiwanese officials cut estimates for second quarter growth on July 31 as high inventory levels of electronics and keen competition from the Chinese technology supply chain led to a slump in exports, a key driver of the island's economy. Officials lowered their estimate for second quarter gross domestic product growth to 0.64% from its May forecast of 3.05%. (Nikkei)

Japan's Jobless Rate Worsens to 3.4% in June, First Rise in Five Months. Japan's unemployment rate worsened for the first time in five months to 3.4% in June, up 0.1% from May, the government said Friday. Separate data showed the country's job availability remained unchanged in June from May. The ratio of employment offers to seekers stayed at 1.19. The number of unemployed people gained a seasonally adjusted 1.8% from May to 2.22 million. Analysts say it may be difficult for the jobless rate to sharply drop as the market may be nearing full employment. (Nikkei)

 

Americas

U.S. Wage Growth Brakes in Second-Quarter; Consumer Sentiment Slips. U.S. labor costs in the second quarter recorded their smallest increase in 33 years as workers earned less in commissions and bonuses. The Employment Cost Index, the broadest measure of labor costs, edged up 0.2% in the second quarter. That was the smallest gain since the series started in the second quarter of 1982. Economists had forecast the 0.6% rise in the second quarter. In a separate report, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 93.1 in July from 96.1 in June. Still, the index was up 13.8% compared to July of last year. Households expected their incomes to rise over the next two years. (Reuters)

 

Europe

Eurozone Inflation Stable at 0.2%. Eurozone inflation was unchanged in July as a further decline of energy prices negated the impact of more expensive industrial goods and services. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said that consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by 0.2% year-on-year in July, as in June. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the core inflation were up 0.9% from 0.8% in June. The euro zone ended four months of deflation in April, but inflation is still far below the European Central Bank's target of just under 2%. (Reuters)

Unemployment Stable in Eurozone. Unemployment is stable in the 19-nation eurozone, with the level of joblessness in June standing at 11.1% for the third straight month. Greece had the highest level of unemployment, at 25.6%. Germany had the lowest level at 4.7%. Greece also had the highest level of youth unemployment at 53.2% in April. Average Eurozone unemployment among those under 25 rose slightly to 22.5%. (AP)

Russia Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Slump Contains Inflation. Russia’s central bank reduced interest rates for the fifth time this year. The one-week auction rate was lowered by 50 basis points to 11%. While continuing with their seven-month easing cycle, policy makers backed off their vow last month to deliver more reductions as price growth decelerates further. The central bank said it may downgrade its forecast for a 3.2% economic decline this year. (Bloomberg)

Greek Financial Markets to Reopen After Five-Week Shutdown. Greece’s financial markets will reopen on Monday, ending a five-week suspension that began after the country imposed capital controls. Foreign investors will be excluded from all restrictions, provided that they were already active in trading before the imposition of capital controls last month. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

Dollar Ends July on Sour Note on Weak U.S. Labor Cost Data. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Friday, ending a decent month on a sour note as a record-low rise in U.S. employment costs in the second quarter dialed back bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later this year. The dollar index fell 0.33% at 97.230 after being down more 1%. The euro rose over 0.4% against the dollar at $1.0981.The dollar fell 0.2% to 123.93 yen after touching a near seven-week high on Thursday. It gained 1.2% in July. (Reuters)

 

Commodities

Oil Drops for Fifth Week; U.S. Crude in Biggest Monthly Fall Since 2008. U.S. crude posted its biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday after a string of losses in July triggered by China's stock market slump and signs that top Middle East producers were pumping crude at record levels. Oil prices fell for a fifth straight week. U.S. crude settled down $1.40, or almost 3%, at $47.32 a barrel. Brent settled down $1.10, or 2%, at $52.21 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Heads for Longest Weekly Losing Streak in 16 Years. Gold slipped to near 5.5-year lows on Friday and was on course for a sixth straight weekly fall, its longest retreat since 1999, after upbeat U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a near-term hike in interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,084.80 an ounce by 0623 GMT, and has dropped more than 1% for the week. Spot platinum and palladium were slightly weaker and not far off multi-year lows, while silver was steady. (Reuters)

 

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