OVERVIEW

● Thailand is slated to hold a general election on March 24, its first election since the military seized power in 2014 and since the amendment of the constitution in 2017. The election, which is supposed to act as a symbol of democracy in the country, may in fact be a manifestation of greater embedment of the military power, with a battle between pro-military and pro-Thaksin parties likely to be observed.

● Elevated political uncertainty led to several military coups in recent years. For most of the 1990s and early 2000s, Thailand has been governed by a democraticallyelected government. However, in the past decade, the country has undergone several bouts of political turmoil and street riots amidst allegations of corruptions or misuse of power by the then-Prime Minister. These protests have led to military interventions in 2006 and 2014, with the aim of restoring back the nation’s peace and stability.

● These military interventions have rocked Shinawatra’s political dynasty. Dominating the country’s politics with his policies and economic reform initiatives, among others pertaining to rural poverty and healthcare, Thaksin Shinawatra gained huge support from the citizens, particularly in the northern rural area, allowing him to be the first Prime Minister in Thailand’s history to have served a whole term and to be re-elected for a second term. However, things took a turn for the worse, with Thaksin being charged with multiple cases of corruptions and abuse of power, which ended with him being ousted by a military coup in 2006. In the 2011 election, contesting under the Pheu Thai Party’s ticket, Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was elected as the Prime Minister, but only lasted for a short while before being impeached on accusation of negligence in the management of a rice subsidy scheme, which was then followed by the latest 2014 military coup, with General Prayut Cha-O-Cha named as the Prime Minister.

● Under the military’s reign, Thailand has on average observed a stable, but relatively softer economic expansion. Apart from external factors that were not within Thailand’s grasp, the economic situation was partly attributable to amplified political uncertainty which has seen foreign investment flow becoming more volatile in recent years. Nonetheless, policy-wise, Prayut has led several commendable initiatives, particularly the development of Thailand 4.0, a 20-year national strategy, effective October 2018, which is viewed as a move that will help Thailand to leap forward and remain relevant in the ever changing economic landscape. Thailand 4.0 aims to transform the economic base into a value- and innovation-driven, with Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), which is valued at approximately USD54.0b, as its flagship project. This project straddles across three coastal regions which will be revitalised into a special economic zone with transport infrastructures of various modes connecting it to the neighbouring ASEAN countries. Portraying one of many military’s actions to strengthen its grip of the country, it has amended Thailand’s constitution in 2017 to make it mandatory for any future government to adhere to the plan. In the event of malfeasance, the government in power could be impeached.

● The newly-scripted consitution furnished the military faction with greater influence over the political landscape. In 2017, the ruling military has altered the Thailand’s constitution, resulting in significant changes to the electoral system, granting additional channels for the military to retain its controls over the political landscape, whilst rooting out the influence of pro-Thaksin parties.

● One of the major changes, was the usage of mixed member apportionment system for the seats under the lower house (i.e. House of Representatives-HoR).

With the implementation of this system, voters will cast one vote for a candidate for the constituency seat. The share of votes a party receives at a national level will then determine the share of lower-house seats a party is entitled to. Party-list seats will be added to a party’s constituency seats until the share has been met. Overall, this new system acts as an advantage for the smaller parties and a disadvantage for the larger pro-Thaksin parties, allowing parties with no constituency seats won to have a chance at securing party-lists seats.

● Further firming up military’s influence, the manner by which the Prime Minister will be elected has also been amended. Instead of just being voted by one chamber of the parliament (i.e. members of HoR), the Prime Minister will now be jointly voted by both the 500 members of HoR and 250 senators, which are appointed by the ruling military, hence providing an upper-hand for the pro-military Prime Minister candidates.

Source: Kenanga Research - 22 Mar 2019