● The unemployment rate inched up in the final month last year, but overall 2019 growth in line with house forecast of 3.3%

- Unemployment rate: Inched up to 3.3% in December from 3.2% in November, back to its September level.

- Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted): remained at 3.3% (Nov: 3.3%) for two straight months.

- Unemployed persons (0.6% MoM; Nov: 0.4%): fastest expansion in five months, bringing the total unemployed persons to 517.0k (Nov: 513.9k).

● Labour force and employment shrank for the first time since Nov 2017 at the same pace of -0.2% MoM (Nov: 0.3%)

- Labour force: 15.80m persons (Nov: 15.83m).

- New jobs creation: first MoM contraction since Dec 2017 (-29.0k; Nov: 49.4k).

- Manufacturing sector: employment moderated (0.1% MoM; Nov: 0.2%), while payroll registered the best monthly gain in six years (9.1%; Nov: -0.9%).

● Labour force participation edged up to 68.9% (Nov: 68.8%)

- Mainly due to a contraction in growth of those outside the labour force (-0.6% MoM; Nov: 0.01%).

- Meanwhile, job vacancies declined (-7.1%; Oct: 6.4%) to 74.6k in November with the share of elementary positions rises to a 10-month high (71.7%; Oct: 67.5%).

● Mixed unemployment rate globally

- US: jobless rate rose to 3.6% in Jan from a record 50-year low in Dec (3.5%).

- EU: seasonally adjusted jobless rate edged down to 6.2% in Dec (Nov: 6.3%), lowest since Jan 2000.

● The unemployment rate is projected to edge up in 2020 to 3.4% (2019: 3.3%) due to slower economic growth outlook for this year (4.3%; 2019E: 4.5%)

- Cautious growth outlook retained as manufacturing slowdown may extend in the 1H20 due to the adverse impact of coronavirus and evidenced by the latest manufacturing PMI pointing to weak export demand. This will exert pressure on the local job market in the near term amid positive developments surrounding the US-China phaseone trade deal.

Source: Kenanga Research - 10 Feb 2020