● Following the announcement of a total nationwide lockdown last Friday (May 28), Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announced a new stimulus package worth RM40.0b (2.6% of GDP) yesterday (May 31) to bolster the country’s economy and assist the people amid a total national Movement Control Order (MCO). The new PEMERKASA+ package has three main aims, namely: to enhance public healthcare capacity,continue the Prihatin Raykat agendain order topreserve the people’s welfare, and to support business sustainability.

- Of the total package, RM5.0b (0.3% of GDP) will be in the form of direct fiscal injections, whilst the remaining RM35.5b (2.3% of GDP) will be various indirect measures and supplements to earlier fiscal packages. This brings the overall COVID-19 fiscal stimulus (PEMERKASA+, PEMERKASA, PERMAI, PRIHATIN, PRIHATIN SME+, PENJANA, KITA PRIHATIN) to RM368.6b (25.7% of GDP), with direct fiscal injection totalling RM71.0b (4.6% of GDP).

- This package consists of 21 strategic initiatives with three main themes:

• EnhancingPublic Healthcare Capacity (4 initiatives): various measures to strengthen public health amid a spike in COVID- 19 cases, which has put a strain on hospitals and ICU capacity. Includes allocation to increase the number of ICU beds and to fund various COVID-19 related agencies.
   
• Continuing the Prihatin Rakyat Agenda (6 initiatives): to ensure the well-being of vulnerable people and workers who depend on daily wages. Includes an additional RM2.1b in Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat cash aid and a return of loan moratoriums for various groups.
   
• Supporting Business Continuity (11 initiatives): to assist businesses, especially SMEs, in managing their cash flow in order to promote business sustainability. Includes an additional RM500 aid for almost 1.0m SMEs under the GKP programme, on top of the RM1000 already planned for disbursement.

- Despite the relatively small RM5.0b direct injection, the wider PEMERKASA+ fiscal plan is a sizeable package that will likely soften the economic impact of the total national lockdown and aid public healthcare against the rising number of COVID-19 cases. 

● A swift vaccination campaign is an essential part of Malaysia’s COVID-19 exit strategy

- Since the COVID-19 started to wreak havoc in Malaysia on 26th January 2020, the total number of cases has now reached 572,357 with 2,796 deaths. Out of the total deaths recorded, more than 46.0% or 1,290 deaths were reported in May this year alone, signalling that our public health system is currently in dire straits. To add, the number of active cases is currently approaching the 80,000 mark as new daily cases continued to outnumber the number of daily recoveries.

- On the domestic vaccination front, almost 3.0m doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in Malaysia. In all, a total of 1,860,864 (5.7% of the population) Malaysians have received at least one vaccine shot and out of that total, more than half or 1,052,145 (3.2%) have received both doses. The current pace of vaccinations in Malaysia is very inconsistent, ranging from 20.0k doses per day to more than 100.0k per day in the past week. However, starting from June onwards, the number of injections is expected to accelerate to 150.0k a day. To note, an additional of nearly 16.0m more doses of vaccines are expected to arrive by July, with Sinovac vaccine being the majority (12.0m) of the doses.

Source: Kenanga Research - 1 Jun 2021