Kenanga Research & Investment

Malaysia Labour Market - Unemployment rate down to 4.6% in April; downside risks remain

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Publish date: Thu, 10 Jun 2021, 11:46 AM

● The unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.6% in April (Mar: 4.7%) despite a surge in the COVID-19 cases

- Unemployed persons (-1.4% MoM; Mar: -3.1%): fell for the third straight month, reducing the number of unemployed persons to 742.7k (Mar: 753.2k).

● Employment growth expanded for the fifth consecutive month (0.1% MoM; Mar: 0.4%), albeit at a slower pace. The growth was associated with an upward trend in the number of employed persons in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors

- Labour force: sustain expansion (16.094m persons; Mar: 16.082m) to a new record high.

- New job creation: expanded at a slower pace (22.7k; Mar: 58.7k).

● Labour force participation rate unchanged (68.6%; Mar: 68.6%) despite an increase in the number of the labour force

- Due to the higher growth of the number of people outside the labour force (0.2% MoM; Mar: -0.1%) to 7.38m.

● Unemployment rate eased in the advanced economies

- US: unemployment rate eased in May (5.8%; Apr: 6.1%), the lowest since March 2020 as employers added 559,000 jobs.

- AU: Jobless rate eased in April (5.5%; Mar: 5.7%), lowest since March 2020 as youth unemployment rate improved despite the end of wage subsidies.

● 2021 unemployment rate forecast maintain at 4.3% (2020: 4.5%)

- The labour market is expected to remain pressured in the near term on the back of surging COVID-19 cases and the reimposition of nationwide Movement Control
  Order (MCO 3.0) from May 12, followed by full lockdown until June 14. Nonetheless, the impact is expected to be less severe than the MCO 1.0 as more sectors
  are allowed to resume operation as well as continued support from government measures. This is reflected in the latest data from MyFutureJobs as the number of
  loss of employment (LOE) eased to 3,724 in May (Apr: 4,963) despite surging COVID-19 infections.

- Likewise, the labour market will be supported by the progress of the vaccination campaign and sustain expansion in the manufacturing sector, particularly the
  export-related sector back by stronger demand from advanced economies and technology upcycle.

Source: Kenanga Research - 10 Jun 2021

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