Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR strengthened to below the 4.20 level against the weakening USD for the first time since July 13. To note, the USD index (DXY) fell to below the 93.0 level after Fed's Powell offered no indication on tapering during the Jackson Hole event. Despite Malaysia's new record high of 24,599 COVID-19 cases reported last Thursday, the local note gained ground against the greenback on the back of rising Brent crude oil price and positive sentiment surrounding the domestic political situation.

▪ MYR is expected to fluctuate between 4.18 and 4.21 this week on oil market uncertainty, as the OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on September 1 to discuss its oil output policy. On the domestic COVID-19 situation, rising number of daily cases and deaths are seen to continue to exert downward pressure on the local note. Towards the end of the week, all eyes will be on the US jobs report as signs of a solid growth could propel the DXY above the 94.0 level, potentially weakening the ringgit.

Technical Analysis

▪ 5-day EMA suggests that MYR would switch to a bearish trend this week, projecting a depreciation of 0.33% against the greenback to 4.205.

▪ The short-term technical outlook sees an upside bias for the USD, with an immediate resistance level at (R1) 4.214. Alternatively, a breach below the (S1) 4.179 level is needed to mark a continuation of a bullish MYR trend.

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Aug 2021