Fundamental Overview

▪ After moving in a very tight range between 4.184 to 4.188 from Monday to Thursday last week, the ringgit rebounded near the 4.180 level, outpacing the strong USD uptrend on Friday. Even though the USD index remained above the 94.0 level, the local note managed to chart a minor appreciation due to elevated Brent crude oil price, better-than-expected Malaysia’s export performance and improved domestic economic sentiment.

▪ MYR may strengthen around the 4.17 level against the USD as the government is expected to allow more social and economic activities this week as Malaysia is approaching the target of fully vaccinating 90.0% of its adult population. However, the direction of the local note will continue to be influenced by external factors such as the US jobs report, progress on the US debt ceiling, OPEC+ meeting outcome and China’s economic uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

▪ Despite positive sentiment on the ringgit, our 5-day EMA indicates a potential corrective pullback in the USDMYR trend, with the ringgit expected to depreciate slightly against the greenback by 0.10% to 4.183 this week.

▪ Technically, a sustained move over (R1) 4.185 will signal the presence of sellers for the MYR. This could trigger an uptick to (R2) 4.190. Inversely, a sustained dip below the (S1) 4.176 level may suggest an extension of the bullish MYR trend.

Source: Kenanga Research - 4 Oct 2021