Fundamental Overview

▪ MYR strengthened marginally against the USD last week as Brent crude oil price rose above the USD80.0/barrel threshold for the first time since October 2018 amid global energy crunch. Despite stronger greenback, the local note extended its winning streak from the prior week on the back of better domestic labour market performance and improving COVID-19 trends.

▪ The announcement of Malaysia’s transition toward normalcy (more social and economic sectors allowed to reopen) on Sunday coupled with weak US nonfarm payrolls report may boost the local note to strengthen against the USD near the 4.170 level. However, moving closer to the end of the week, the ringgit may likely trade in a range of 4.175 to 4.185 due to the strong USD narrative amid China-Taiwan tensions, Evergrande's debt crisis and global inflation concerns.

Technical Analysis

▪ Based on the EMA indicator, the ringgit is expected to depreciate slightly by 0.07% to 4.180 this week, highlighting a potential selloff in risk assets.

▪ The USD may see some upward momentum this week and ascent above the (R1) 4.183 level if safe-haven buyers continue to seek shelter in the greenback. Conversely, a break below the (S1) 4.174 support level is needed to confirm MYR extended bullish bias.

Source: Kenanga Research - 11 Oct 2021