Fundamental Overview

▪ The ringgit struggled to gain traction against the USD last week, hovering around the 4.20 to 4.22 level amid waning risk appetite due to Shanghai's staggered lockdown and bearish global economic outlook. On top of that, the lack of ringgit buying interest was mainly due to falling Brent crude oil price amid President Biden’s decision to release US oil reserves and Malaysia’s disappointing PMI reading.

▪ The ringgit is expected to continue to trade under pressure around the 4.21 level despite Malaysia's border reopening optimism as the USD may continue to be buoyed by safe-haven buying amid solid US jobs report and heightened market uncertainty. In addition, the greenback may also be supported by a more hawkish FOMC minutes and Fed officials’ speeches. However, the ringgit and other risk on assets may reverse course if there is any progress on the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Technical Analysis

▪ MYR is projected to reverse last week’s weakening trend with a slight gain of 0.06% against the greenback to 4.210 this week.

▪ This suggests a bearish bias for the USDMYR pair for this week. From here, the weak USD trend could push the pair towards the (S2) 4.198 level if the (S1) 4.205 support level is breached. Conversely, a rally towards the (R1) 4.218 level will invalidate the bearish pattern.

Source: Kenanga Research - 4 Apr 2022