We maintain our GGM-derived PBV TP of RM2.45 (COE: 11.3%, TG: 3.0%, ROE: 7%) and OP call. Post a meeting with the group at its recently launched TRX Headquarters, we are convinced of AFFIN achieving its ambitious FY22 targets with some resiliency against economic headwinds. Disposal of its business units will help to fuel its key banking division’s endeavours. There is no adjustment to our TP based on ESG of which it is given a 3-star rating as appraised by us. AFFIN is one of our 3QCY22 sector top picks.

Key takeaways are as follows:

- Disposal of AHAM to boost organic growth in banking division. The sale of AHAM will unlock RM1.54b in cash, likely to be sealed by the end of July 2022. This will elevate CET-1 levels to 16% (from 13.7%). The group opines that injecting said capital could stimulate the group’s banking units and add NII of RM190m (+11% to current estimates) in two years. Meanwhile, due to non-compete agreement, AFFIN will abstain from any new asset management ventures for 18 months post sale.

- Capital considerations first and then dividends. The group opines that it will ensure working capital targets are sufficiently fulfilled before it considers the quantum of special dividends that may be paid. Of the RM1.54b proceeds, if we were to estimate a payout of 25% to shareholders, this could translate to c.18.0 sen in special dividends or 9% yield while still keeping CET-1 level at c.15.8%.

- AXA to also close in 3QFY22. The disposal of stakes in AXA Affin Life and General to the JV with MPI Generali (estimated to be completed end-Aug 2022) will provide additional RM155m cash while still being earnings accretive as an associate. That said, operational integration of this JV is expected to only materialise by 1QFY23. Post merger, the combined gross written premium is expected to stand at c.RM2.0b, behind market leader Allianz’s RM2.35b book. There could be a two-pronged growth enjoyed with Generali’s non-cannibalistic product offerings on top of operational synergies from the merged entity, uplifting the segment’s overall contribution to beat its historical 5% of group earnings, going forward.

- Unhindered by recent macro developments. The group remains confident that its 12% loans growth (industry highest) target for FY22 is attainable. Although recent OPR hikes pose headwinds to affordability, strength of the SMEs is expected to remain solid as the local economic growth remains on track. This will be balanced by the launch of its mobile banking app in 4QFY22 to keep CASA and funding costs sticky. Meanwhile, NOII will be cushioned by encouraging reception of its wealth products amidst sluggish investment and trading performance.

Post update, we leave our FY22E/FY23E assumptions unchanged.

Maintain OUTPERFORM and TP of RM2.45. Our TP is based on a GGM-derived PBV of 0.48x (COE: 11.3%, TG: 3.0%, ROE: 7%) on our FY23E BVPS of RM5.07. We believe AFFIN’s monetisation of its business units (AHAM and AXA Affin) could progressively refine AFFIN’s identity as a more comparable traditional bank akin to its listed peers, which may at times fetch a higher valuation for the group. At the meantime, its dividend yield prospects of 5-6% (excluding possible special dividends) could incentivise investors to overlook its low ROE levels which should gradually be enhanced with its growth plans.

Risks to our call include: (i) higher-than-expected margin squeeze, (ii) lower-than-expected loans growth, (iii) worse-than-expected deterioration in asset quality, (iv) slowdown in capital market activities, (v) unfavourable currency fluctuations, and (vi) changes to OPR.

Source: Kenanga Research - 26 Jul 2022