Good Articles to Share
Fong Siling / Cold Eyed (冯时能 / 冷眼) - Wrong Investment
I found out some people @ investalks compiling a list that stock introduced from cold eyed but fail to perform...
I make a compilation here (http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/14169.jsp) and monitor how's the stock movement...
But anywhere, cold eyed did agree he did make some wrong investment as he is not a god...
As what he share on yesterday speech, we just can minimize the error but cannot totally avoid the error....
Leave the comment if you still found any wrong investment from him....
At least, we can learn from his mistake too..
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Appendix: Some good comments that I copied from investlah thread.....
zenkikent
有好有不好嘛。。。自己要有分析能力，不能人说什么你就信什么。当我一发觉冷眼先生在书里教的和他介绍的股有出入，我就知道要靠自己了。相信我，冷眼先生教的是心态，其他的看过就算了吧
zenkikent
当你看到报章上的消息时，时间上就输了。而看到时最少已是第四手，你能怪谁？
第一手 冷眼先生 还没买就公布，有那么笨的人吗？
第三手 报社的员工，往往他们接到投稿后，并不是第一时间就刊登的
第四手 看报章消息的人，已慢人三手，能赚钱就靠运气了
AaronCjS
如果冷眼讲过的股就一定能赚钱，还会有穷人吗？
lmenwe
以冷眼的角度来看，它并没有问题。冷眼用的是asset back model。同样的以asset back model来看，xingquan也是一间好公司。
至于阁下说它的问题仅仅是因为中国公司那未免太看小大众了。xingquan的cash一堆可是interest receive少得可怜，revenue的增长不多可是receivable却暴涨了一倍以上。Profit Margin和cash in hand也不断下滑。不断地哭诉自己被低估，手头上现金那么多为何不搞share buy back或提高股息？以那么低的估值管理层大可私有化，可他们却搞什么TDR。晋江的鞋厂过去倒闭时有所闻，大众不是白痴不会仅仅因为它是中国股就鄙视它。以asset back model来看xingquan很值得买，因为比净值低，冷眼从来不把trade receivable当一回事，所以maemode他也大力推荐。
heamq
马来西亚十个上市公司的老板之中至少有九个是会吃公司的钱，会吃到公司要死不活的啦，尤其是那些比较小型的上市公司，
冷眼介绍的多数是小型股，他是否有针对这一点提醒过大家呢？
棕油
冷眼教的是如何分析股票，学会了大多买股都没有亏过，要记住报纸版位有限，冷眼不是说过要我们自己去bursa 看吗？ 问有几个人看了冷眼的文章去吧MSC的annual report 看完，有几个去London Metal Exchange 研究aluminium 的价钱，我照着他的话去做，看完了MSC的annual report, 研究了aluminium price, 而我的决定是不买入MSC
zenkikent
其他大大的分析法我不太清楚啦。关于吃钱这方面，我是注重于三方面以降低吃钱的可能性
1。 股息（这大家都懂的）
2。 管理层每一年的薪金（如果他们一年帮你赚一千万，但他们的薪水是一百万，值得吗？）
3。 尽量避免买那些很喜欢投资的公司的股票（如果那间公司是做罐头的，但现在却投资去做地产，而且投资额越来越大，对小股东而言是很危险的事情！！！与其让一位新手去做地产，不如我将钱拿回来，自己投资，买入有实绩的地产公司）
walkers
看来冷眼好像害到很多人在股市亏钱？不解。
我投资股票3年多，几乎都是买冷眼介绍的股。
随便买，随便赚，
没赚的每年多数也有股息拿。
冷眼讲过的东西，有两样我印象非常深刻：
1.股票基本面。我以上指的随便买，不是乱乱跟，而是我基本面功夫不强，只做一些非常基本的功课（如PE，NTA，价钱比较，DY，成长率），然后读大大论坛里的分析就买了。前后只需要两个小时。
2.冷眼有发表过类似“分散投资”的论调，好像不建议sai lang只买一只股。由于我的功课做得不如论坛里的大大们精细，无法对一间公司有100%的信心，所以就比较倾向于“分散”。投资初期资金比较小的时候，我就买几只来“分散”，后来资金大了我就保持在10只股项左右。
如果让我做个粗略的比例，3年里，我所持有的10只冷眼推荐的股当中：
有3只赚钱（开一番左右）
有3只小赚（25%-35%之之间）
有3只大概持平（但有股息拿，就收着）
有一只亏损（25%）
一只亏损的钱，跟所赚的钱比较起来，根本是微不足道，我也不放在心上。其它的不赚的有股息拿，我也满意了。所以我感谢冷眼介绍了那么多股，方便我们挑选。
或许是我要求太低了，我不要求每一只股都赚钱，9赚1亏，甚至是8赚2亏，我都已经很满足了。我没有做过实际的资料搜查，但是我相信冷眼介绍的股项，赚钱的远远超越不赚钱的。而且，那些赚钱的股，赚副远远超过那些带来亏损的。Dudu大大就刚提过，Hupseng四年让他赚10倍。我买入Hupseng也是冷眼的介绍，但这股好像不太受追捧。
我现在还在想：关于买入冷眼的股票后亏损的可能性：
1.一只或两只股sai lang，不幸选到了少数带来亏损的冷眼推荐股。
2.有设一个股票组合，买5只或以上冷眼推荐的股，但全部都亏损，不过这几率不高，要很倒霉才会遇到。
最后，公道话说一句，买股没有包赢的。要做好心理准备。
所以，有个朋友整天问我：”来，介绍我一只包赢的股。“但他永远不会从我口中问出什么。不是因为自私，而是世界上根本都没有包赢的股。
lmenwe
本帖最后由 lmenwe 于 2013-3-2 00:26 编辑
那些每天在骂冷眼的人，你知道老巴的准确率如何吗？答案是他也好不到哪去！他也只有30%而已，为什么他是股神世界第一？因为他在赢的那三十%内下了重本！冷眼再强只怕和老巴的30%也相差不远。
回复 213# Kydarun
以上所说的都会发生，但KLK在账目造假几乎不可能。油棕业比较简单没那么好作假。不过KLK也不见得不会有问题，假设印尼发生暴动或印尼因为环保原因而强制回收KLK的土地。或者是CPO因为产量过剩，一路向南直到RM1000/tonne，而且保持了10年以上。另一方面肥料和工资却一飞冲天。当然我是在发疯。
避开假账最简单和直接的方法就是绝不买进不了解的公司。以老巴而言，难道他是会计达人还是有内幕消息不然为什么他超过60年的生涯可以完美的避开假账？难道他真的有本事分析全世界的各行各业？只怕未必吧！老巴不只一次错过了许多一流的企业。
避免假账的答案是invest within your circle of competency，只投资在自己了解的范围！当然分辨假账的方法也是必学的！
Dudu
我也有买MSC和xinquan。
MSC买了两次，也卖了两次，都是赚钱的。（3.3买，4.2卖; 3.8买，4.4卖）赚了10多K.
我想你买入前没做好功课，买入MSC，要懂的看tin commodity price，要知道他生产锡的每吨的本钱是多少。
如果现在tin commodity price高过生产成本，那MSC才有的赚，只要公司有赚钱，就有能力派发股息，股价自然起。
买这种循环股，timing很重要。（冷眼很会抓timing的）
xinquan 也是让我赚钱，只是在他介绍之前的事。
他介绍过后，我看了财报，我不敢买。赚那么多钱，有可能派不出股息吗？
投资者不需要股息，难道连大股东也不需要股息？
如果大股东不需要股息，那就是说大股东“鑚柜桶底”。
所以赚钱亏钱，在于自己。
冷眼分享集 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/coldeye/blidx.jsp
新冷眼分享集 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/newcoldeye/blidx.jsp
冷眼分享锦集 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/coldeyedsharing/blidx.jsp
Cold Eyed Speech - 20121026 (watch list)
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 15 of 19 comments
E is equity and is also net assets used by the company. The higher ROE, the better is the business profitability relative to the resources it has accessed to.
2013-03-17 16:26
because i listen the cold eye speech record on internet. He mentioned the higher ROE is a top pick for selecting a potential stock to gain reasonable profit, but need to conclude all analysis like cash flow, PE, DY and NTA?
2013-03-17 16:37
ROE, free cash flow, PE, DY, NTA and many other yardsticks are important in determining intrinsic value of a company. The lower that value is compared to the current market price, the bigger of margin of safety you get if you buy in. Free cash flow here is one for equity holder which is profit after tax + depreciation and amortisation - capex +/- working captial changes.
2013-03-17 18:43
Tan KW, why don't you post this in many other threads in i3. This posting is the best so far, bravo.
2013-03-20 11:10
pity petty boy don't post, simple as that. it's World Wide Web, u expect everyone to like yr post, think as u?! there will be no share market, no need election if everyone think one way. especially in a public forum, cannot take criticism? u think it is negative criticism but first of all who r u to judge? someone else may like it.
best is, pity petty taufu character don't post. cold-eye swim in the sea of shares market that long, he says what's best in his knowledge, u shoot as u like, but there is great number of ppl like him very much. I thank him for Tambun recommendation :D :D :D
2013-03-20 11:20
how to calculate net gearing...wct for example, from the analysis of some back, the net gearing for 2012 is 45.5% and that seem to be very high...if the gearing is high how can wct consider as a fundamentally strong company?
2013-03-20 11:24
Future earning prospect...
=)
Ppl buy because current jobs wct handle will reawrd company and its shareholder...
2013-03-20 11:29
The problem with hi gearing is when BLR rise company like wct will have to pay high for their loan...
2013-03-20 11:33
also the more foreign projects involved, the exchange rate can be a killer, or angel :D
2013-03-20 11:37
Yup can see SPSETIA....
Faint heart if u dream London will be destroy like in GiJoe...
2013-03-20 11:41
money is number.
when selling pressure come dun fear, dun get emo cz u still got other stocks .(and YOU GREEDY)
2013-03-20 11:48
Hey iafx, it looks like you have great respect for Cold Eye. Me too. In fact I have started a thread to honour him titled "The 5 rules of Cold Eye". I have been analysing stocks using Cold Eye's 5 rules, or yardsticks to evaluate if a stock is worth investing for the purpose of sharing with others. Why don't you join us for the good of many people here? Analyze stocks using our sifu's yardsticks and post and share with others. Hey we all respect Cold Eye and believe what he says man.
2013-03-20 12:18
Do you guys have any meet-up, yamcha or brain-storming sessions? Please let me know if you do as I would like to join. thx
2013-03-20 13:45
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liew kimguan
楼上的大大，我有问题想向你请教， ROE 高的话， 是不是一味着公司的赚钱的本领很强， 比如DiGi, ROE 88%, cash flow 1bil, but PE high 28....
2013-03-17 16:22