是时候再次检讨ZHULIAN现财政年业绩的时候了。
ZHULIAN于上个月公布了还算相当不错的业绩：
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INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
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CUMULATIVE PERIOD
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CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
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PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING QUARTER |
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
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PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING PERIOD |
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31/05/2013
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31/05/2012
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31/05/2013
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31/05/2012
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$$'000
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$$'000
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$$'000
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$$'000
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| 1 | Revenue |
106,233
|
110,985
|
214,953
|
222,865
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| 2 | Profit/(loss) before tax |
42,364
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34,145
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77,729
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68,731
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| 3 | Profit/(loss) for the period |
37,927
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29,150
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67,673
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57,545
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| 4 | Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent |
37,927
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29,150
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67,673
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57,545
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| 5 | Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit) |
8.25
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6.34
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14.71
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12.51
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| 6 | Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit) |
3.00
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3.00
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6.00
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6.00
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2013年第二季的营业额稍微下跌4.3%，至1亿零623万3000令吉，然而净利却去年同期增涨30.1%，至3792万7000令吉；至于首半年净利也增至6767万3000令吉，比去年增涨17.58%。
据公司解释，营业额下滑的主因是国內销售降减所致，至于净利增长则归功于联号公司的贡献增长93.37%至2317万7000令吉。
有人看了这份季报后开始担忧起来，认为ZHULIAN营业额萎缩不是件好事，如果营业额持续下跌，会否影响接下来两个季度的表现？
当然，我不排除有这种可能性，但何不以比较乐观的角度来看待ZHULIAN的营业额。
首先，ZHULIAN仍然有半年的时间来追赶去年的总营业额，目前两者的差距仅3.55%，ZHULIAN要在下半年赶超去年的总营业额其实并非不可能的事。
其次，与其说ZHULIAN今年的营业额萎缩，倒不如说ZHULIAN在去年的营业额冲得太快，而对今年造成一些压力。
看看ZHULIAN营业额在再过去几年的增长幅度：
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| 资料来自2012年年报 |
在过去，ZHULIAN的营业额都以个位数增长，直到2011年突然猛增10.82%。而在去年（2012年）更是狂飙25.97%，还一次过将前几年的增幅一次过给比了下去，这也导致要提高今年欲提高营业额的难度大大增加了。
虽然如此，要是国内需求仍然无法改善，但在联号公司强劲的需求下，我相信ZHULIAN的全年净利依然可以维持约17%的增长，每股净利也可达到29.78仙。
如此一来，预料ZHULIAN全年的总派息依然可以达到18仙，超越去年的15.5仙，以目前的市价RM3.20计算，周息率为5.6%。
可否如我所愿，就看ZHULIAN接下来半年的表现了。
bsngpg
There are lots of good prospects on Zhulian, one of my favorite counter. It is relatively a very good and safe counter to invest into. Lately, I have a dilemma if to further accumulate at the current price. Why?
Some Gurus said that while investing, first thing to think about is not to lose money before thinking how to make money. In this perspective, now is not a very safe time to buy Zhulian as if we check thru the historical PE, Zhulian were traded with PE below 10x except the bull run in FY12. If the forecasted eps of FY13 is ~30sen, the safe price shall not be higher than RM3 with PE not more than 10X. I would feel safe to go in at RM2.40 with PE 8x. I will see it as “Christmas Sales Offer price” at RM2.10 with PE 7X. Can I get it ? This is a game of patient and luck.
If the current bull goes up further, I believe I will lose the opportunity of making more money from this relatively safe counter since I do not buy now. However let us imagine, if S&P and Moody downgrade our credit rating as Fitch in the upcoming few months, how chaos Bursa will be? I foresee Zhulian may drop to RM2.40 then and the golden time to buy emerges.
2013-08-12 13:36