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Bernanke explains the economy wasn’t strong enough to taper

Tan KW
Publish date: Thu, 19 Sep 2013, 04:25 AM
Tan KW
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Good.

 

Everyone was expecting big changes from the Fed today, but the statement has very few changes.

--There was no taper.

--There was no change in threshold for how low the unemployment rate will have to fall before the Fed will consider raising interest rates.

--There was no change in the Fed's tolerance for inflation.

--There was no hint about when tapering might begin, or when the bond buying would end completely.

 

 

Full text of the FOMC statement:

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments

Jerry

lol, they are kidding and now bursa will fly :D

2013-09-19 06:39

chongkonghui

just sold many stocks yesterday...

2013-09-19 06:48

andychucky28

Dow went up 147 points. All time high. See how the KLSE will up even thought we have our corrupted UMMO in place.

2013-09-19 07:23

King Kong73

Show me the money

2013-09-19 07:34

gohchinlim

qe game continue, time to sell , reserve fund for next qe game to start.

2013-09-19 08:54

Avocado_C

This Bernanke is real *******, when everyone doens't expect anything, he suddenly announced that there would be QE tapering. When everyone expects him to taper, he said maintain QE. I now tend to believe the conspiracy that he actually collaborates with the Wall Street guys. He knows the QE is definitely not sustainable (it's a giant bubble), but he couldn't care less (as he is retiring).

I guess the main reason why they maintain QE is because the mortgage application rates dropped in August due to rising rates. QE didn't solve the root cause, it didn't create sufficient wealth or increase income of the general Americans, it all pocketed the Wall Street guys.

2013-09-19 10:01

haikeyila

yup. certain groups made a killing in recent market swings. you bet.

2013-09-19 10:07

robertl

The big cooperations in US are holding up large amount of profits reluctant to invest due to market uncertainties. That why the unemployment in US is still at 7.4%. This month, the sequester kicks in. Mkt is again fills with uncertainties. But for time being, I think mkt will be up and ppl r taking profit in anticipation of next rally. This is my personal opinion only...

2013-09-19 10:21

yktay1

Just a question, I thought 1997 style Asian Financial Crisis coming?

2013-09-19 10:26

Avocado_C

Yktay1, we all know there will be a crisis/stock market crash every 5 or 10 years... It's a cycle which keeps repeating itself, but we don't know exactly when. The market is much more volatile now compared to last time. And this QE and the property bubble, I believe are real time bomb. Well, since we play the game, we just watch and see what happen, or else quit the game.

2013-09-19 11:49

robertl

Avovado, I agree w u that this QE n property bubble is real time bomb.

2013-09-19 11:57

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