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[转帖] 闲谈umcca（稳中求胜） - 闲谈股市，理财篇
闲谈umcca（稳中求胜）
现价：7.09
目标价：8.00
投入资金：3%
行业属性：棕油业
【公司种植棕油树简约】
已种植棕油地段：21661公顷
拥有平均7.6年树龄的棕油树
1-7岁树龄：11933公顷
8-15岁树龄：8320公顷
16-25岁树龄：1322公顷
>25岁树龄：86公顷
【推算未来盈利】
当这21661公顷步入黄金生产期时，个人推算净利贡献
每公顷棕油地产量：22公吨
炼油率：21%
每公顷原棕油产量：4.62公吨
每公吨生产成本：RM1300
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm3500，那么21661公顷可带来
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm3000，那么21661公顷可带来
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm2700，那么21661公顷可带来
【如果每公吨原棕油价格站稳rm3000】
以目前市值14.6亿买入，未来本益比：8.2左右
公司这平均派息率都维持在50%以上左右
1.7亿*0.5=0.85亿股息
以市值14.6亿，估计未来dividend yield可达6%左右
随着公司完成种植10000公顷sabah millian labau 棕油地后，资本开销也降低，个人相信公司会提高派息率
【净现金】
目前公司持有1.08亿现金，完全没有银行贷款
【后语】：在原棕油价格不断高涨，umcca拥有平均7.6树龄
现价：7.09
目标价：8.00
投入资金：3%
行业属性：棕油业
【公司种植棕油树简约】
已种植棕油地段：21661公顷
拥有平均7.6年树龄的棕油树
1-7岁树龄：11933公顷
8-15岁树龄：8320公顷
16-25岁树龄：1322公顷
>25岁树龄：86公顷
【推算未来盈利】
当这21661公顷步入黄金生产期时，个人推算净利贡献
每公顷棕油地产量：22公吨
炼油率：21%
每公顷原棕油产量：4.62公吨
每公吨生产成本：RM1300
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm3500，那么21661公顷可带来
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm3000，那么21661公顷可带来
如果每公吨原棕油价格：rm2700，那么21661公顷可带来
【如果每公吨原棕油价格站稳rm3000】
以目前市值14.6亿买入，未来本益比：8.2左右
公司这平均派息率都维持在50%以上左右
1.7亿*0.5=0.85亿股息
以市值14.6亿，估计未来dividend yield可达6%左右
随着公司完成种植10000公顷sabah millian labau 棕油地后，资本开销也降低，个人相信公司会提高派息率
【净现金】
目前公司持有1.08亿现金，完全没有银行贷款
【后语】：在原棕油价格不断高涨，umcca拥有平均7.6树龄
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lmenwe
what a piece of crap! There is no way for a company's total cost to go as low as RM 1,400. Can a company get rid of administration expenses and sell & distribution expenses? Although prices had skyrocketed but that's due to dry spell. When weather normalize prices will back to normal. With so many expansion in Africa I doubt the price can stay above RM 2,600/t in the future!
2014-02-28 03:58