I do agree that plantation theme is the current play and crude palm oil have room to move higher in 1st quarter 2017 but theme play until December 2017? Aren't you too bullish. The production can normalize in 2nd half of 2017 and South America likely will have a bumper harvest in next year. Don't forget that we are now facing La Nina effect! La Nina effect's impact may drag to 6-9 months which are exactly fall in 2nd - 3rd quarter next year (the most fruitful season for oil palm).

Happy prosperous Chinese New Year. I love your articles and effort. Keep posting.

是超过25年的老树，就是必须翻种的那种。而且是55%。

Another thing price is not equivalent to value! KC is discussing value with us. Enough for me to reply a shameless arrogant old man!

What an arrogant old man that totally can't accept any view that differ from him. You are just another dictator like our evil Dr M! KC had been contributing and teaching us for free all the whiles. What had you done? You are here to manipulate stocks and your past recommendation all sank! Yet you still dare to tease the great KC Chong! Shame on you!!!

骂人之前先看看templeton那群人这几年说了什么?mark mobius还有其他的股票基金经理都看好欧洲，因为太太太便宜了。骂人前先看看邓普顿爵士是怎么起家的？他靠的就是人弃我取，反向的投资。这些人都是他的徒子徒孙，他在生的话，搞不好比他们还要看好欧洲呢。这只是他们的观点，不认同别理他们算了,没必要对他们恶言相向。klse估值偏高也不是新鲜事。

Hello i had never promote any share up until now! Even I am bullish on anything I only keep it to myself and discuss among my friends. What I replied to Mr Kyy are all facts and figure from my own calculation. I don't believe Jaya Tiasa is as good as what he projected! But how he replied? Arrogant and totally insulting? Since you talk big and label me as joker what had you done up to date? If there is nothing why don't you stop insulting others and try to mind your own business?

To be honest how many times you had posted bullish comments on Jaya Tiasa? How many facts were thrown back to you that it was not as good as what you claimed and you are deadly over optimistic in your calculation? From your post it is way too obvious that you are an egocentric old man. What is your replied when I give bearish comments on Jaya Tiasa? You cursed me and keep highlighting that you are old and wise man who make hundred of millions from stocks! I can accept mistake even the oracle of omaha also made big mistakes. But I can't never accept a promoter with hidden agenda behind. If you feel insulted yes I am here to insult you!

in fact some of the best investors are good player in bridge or poker. david einhorn and warren buffett are two classical examples.

To me the suggestions seem focus on how to help big owners to dispose the shares they own rather than creating long term value. Spliting shares, bonus issue will never change the counters' business and fundamentals.

I have no intention to attack you. I just wanna clarified that it is hard to judge whether Keurig is a fraud coz it need tonnes of effort and time to reveal the truth even you are pretty sure it is. Just look at Ackman's short on Herbalife you will know what I mean. You can check herbalife's financial statements everything are clean but it is still a pyramid. However price did rise after Carl Ichann attack Ackman. What happen at the end? Now seems Ackman is the real winner.Sorry for the words that I said if you feel insulted.

I stop posting in investalks since 2013 coz last time I had unfair treatment by the mods and admin. Btw do I know you?

Einhorn had cut his position in Keurig but it is still way too early to judge whether Keurig is a fraud. Do you know how many years Einhorn took to prove he is right in the past? Try to read books and articles related to Einhorn. I know Keurig had been performing for years but please remember price doesn't equivalent to value. Remember John Paulson? Before subprime he also lost his pant but once subprime happen he made tonnes of money.

有几家公司的股价经过调整了！冷眼大叔的成绩被拖累了。希望版主正视。

There is one thing call married deal which is done off market bro.

For those who are super bullish on this counter please be remember that you are betting against the legendary short seller David Einhorn. Einhorn had been shorting Keurig for years. I don't know whether Keurig is a fraud but I will never fight a legend like Einhorn.

The counter will pay dividends and some are paying good dividends! When the counter is relisted it will be at a hefty valuation.

Well u can just reject tan sri ong's offer. He won't force u to sell to him. Even it is delisted u can keep holding it. There are a lot of examples that holding unlisted counters can provide good return.

why u didn't include warren and schloss? the duo are ben's disciple and schloss is the die hard follower.

Irving Kahn，Walter Schloss

C可是这几年虽然没存下多少现金但是大部分的钱都投入股市了。难道喜欢买股票-购物狂=败家？、

You all forget that when the world are facing the biggest crisis since 1929 this old man said the world economy is still healthy and ask everyone to stay invested. Even a total novice like me and my dad also know us economy will enter crash due to subprime mortgage crisis. China didn't print money? Well what about a trillion rmb stimulation? Isn't it a money printing? What about the shadow banking and unsustainable real estate price? Yeah! They won't have the same fate like U.S. as they never securitized the bad debst and no massive weapons of destruction were introducted into their financial system. Anyway suckers will keep sucks and talk cock. He can keep talking about crisis and some where down the road (maybe next 4-5 years)the market will crash and he will become a hero as people tends to have short memory! However he will miss the boats for some great counters. The price won't be cheaper prior to 2013 GE. He loves to compare to Oracle of Omaha and boost himselves but he is still sucks compared to him even BRK's size is 100x larger.

Since your company can be reach by public transport why u choose to drive?

借钱是对的，只是不能过度举债和盲目投资在高风险或超越自己能力范围的东西

http://www.gstmalaysia.org/touristrefund/ Please have a look on this website! No doubt the amount generated from tourism is over RM 65 billion but how much subject to refund? The website speak itself only goods taken out with you when you leave Malaysia subject to refund!It does not apply to services (car hire, accommodation, tours etc) or goods consumed or partly consumed in Malaysia such as drinks, chocolates or perfume. Consumable goods must e.g. drinks, chocolate and so on must not be consumed before you leave Malaysia. So the revenue to iris still can be that high? Btw as Iris had control more than 51% of the company it can include all the revenue into its income statement and deduct the portion of profit not belong to iris through minority interest in income statement.

i couldn't agree anymore with you!

unfortunately this is not facebook if not i will give u a big like!

大马机场回酬率只有4%这样也要买？JPM那群人是疯了，还是当大众是傻瓜？

兄弟net profit是暴涨到195million，但是有多少是fair value gain呢？答案是179million。没有这些财技，net profit只有60million而已。

if what ttb said is correct than why mr fong si leng can keep finding undervalue gems from 2009-2013? Don't tell me that his fund is insignificant to TTB. 1 example just look at mkh and MBSB when Mr Fong first recommended them. Even you assigned the lowest valuation on MKH it still worth much more than the market price on that moment! TTB is just an arrogant old man who is too busy investing abroad and never admit his mistake. He keep on boosting himself as the top five fund manager! Just compare himself with Ms Claire Barnes who is the real value investor and perform much better than him!

lol i am wondering how it is able to sustain for the hefty price tag given that its valuation is so rich. It is normal for the price to fall! It will be abnormal if the price continue to sustain at the peak!

since you look down on a seasonal and successful investor like jae jun's check list. why don't u share urs with us. btw pls dun tell me base on charts and volumes!

如果真的觉得好，就别理他。继续持有！反正大股东也是靠派息拿钱！

Lol I thought it was ahmad johari of mas.

他说的是世界五大基金经理吗？

coz there are lesser and lesser counters for manipulators to punt! and it appears cheap for those valued blindly from p/e, nta. It falsefully appeared cheap compared to the peers but in fact it is very expensive. For those who query me just do your own discounted cash flow analysis you will understand what I am talking about.

Strong business? LOL! How much they spent on capex? How much is their return? What is their ROE, ROIC? What is their cost of debts? What they had been acquiring and what is the end result? What are the cash flow? Bloody negative! NTA? Pls the most stupid investment decision by Warren Buffett was buying a textile counter called Berkshire Hathaway that he need to sell its equipment as a scrap metal! Look at kcchongnz and intelligent investors analysis! There are thourough analysis and concrete reason that tell us why it was totally ignored!

Hi I know that this is your blog but wouldn't it weird to discuss Mudajaya here? Besides that isn't it better you discuss in other article which is related to mudajaya? Please don't feel offended it is just my personal opinion only. Btw I am interested on this counter as well. Thanks a lot for your sharing!

I couldn't agree anymore with you! The quality of the management is highly questionable!

不过是一群无良的中医在胡说八道。有本事生病了不要开刀到医院治疗？中医要有效会被人边缘化？

KSL paying dividend? Please check their cash flow statement! They are operating with negative cash flow! How to pay dividedn? Please bear in mind net profit doesn't equivalent to cash received! You might record super high profit but you may fork out a lot of cash! Furthermore they need to replenish their land bank! Hence they are not generating free cash flow. As they do not generating free cash flow how are you going to expect them pay you high dividend?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/54009.jsp

Dear Mr Koon. Just wanna ask you something. In this article the author mention mudajaya is collaborating with you for energy project in Myanmar. I know this is material information but I just wish to ask is it a rumor? What is the source? I can't find anything regarding this from bursa website.

Do they think that we are idiot? The global raw sugar prices at 20 cent per lb? Come on it had yet to breach 18 cents now!

YTL Power? Still haven't learn a lesson from YTL cement?

Riskless in KLK and Batu Kawan? Does he know that there are a few million of land waiting to be developed in Africa? Commodities boom had ended we can't use the past 10 years as a yardstick! Why don't he use 1998 to early 2000s as yardstick? When price stabilize or depress how a richly valued counter without much growth to jump further?

Lol. Warren also bought a lot of holland counters! People do make mistake! Btw he had mentioned that Mudajaya is for long term! It is still way too early to judge his recommendation. Unless you are sure that it is a permanent loss of capital if not short term volatility doesn't matter for a genuine investor.

I always love Ben Graham and Seth Klarman's teaching - margin of safety. We are human. We aren't perfect. We always make mistake. Even a wise man like Buffett also makes tonnes of mistakes! Throughout his whole career only 1/3 out of his investments are good calls!

Of course I do agree that there are some risk free counters which are totally neglected by the crowd but like the late J P Morgan said price will fluctuate! It will only be risk free provided that you have the capability to hold it for a certain period. Besides that how sure you are they are not due to your errors? That’s why we need margin of safety. Graham demand for at least 1/3 below the intrinsic value. His calculation for intrinsic value is really harsh to a company or maybe I should say the counters that pass his checklists are insanely cheap. In this case since you said there are risk free, why not you show us your work on intrinsic value for both of them.

In the case of Batu Kawan/KLK, like what you said before they are richly valued! Everyone shall agree that Batu Kawan/KLK are high quality counters. In the 90s my dad's broker will recommend him these two due to their safe and steady characteristic. No doubt they had been perform tremendously good in the past decade but past result doesn't represent future performance. The super bull in commodities already ends. Just look at how much Indonesia had developed! Moreover don't forget that there are plenty of unplanted or forest with low yield trees in Africa! We can't assume the price will stay at the peak for the next few years! Furthermore soybean planting in U.S. is expected to reach another record high this year. Some even assume U.S. ending stocks will reach multi-year peak next year!

It’s true that KLK and Batu Kawan did perform extremely well in the last decade but what about the late 90s to early of 21st century? From 2nd half of 1998 to 1st half of 2005 it hovers around RM 3 – RM 4. They

Like what you said in the past, we need to invest something that can grow in the future but does both of them qualified? Personally I dun think that KLK qualified as high growth counter. With the high price tag and palm oil prices had yet to reach bottom I would rather stay away from them!

What kind of crap the author had been posting! Total cost at RM 1,300 per tonne! Come on no income tax, export tax, distribution cost, warehousing cost and etc? Even during the hey day of RM 3800/tonne there is yet a counter able to control their cost to RM 1300/tonne. If some one able to achieve it, it can be listed into Guiness World Record coz none of the palm oil plantation counter able to squeeze their cost to RM 1300.

On the other hand WTK just started to plant on 2009. The trees are just 5 years old! Palm oil will only enter their prime stage at 7 yo and reach their peak at 10 yo! The fact come from my dad who is a seasonally planter with close to 30 years experience!

In this case WTK need at least 5 years to achieve high yielding stage!

Dear Mr Tan, I strongly appreciate your hardwork for repost! A thanks from me can't compensate your contributions. I did learnt a lot of valuable lessons from you. However maybe you should read and exercise your judgement before posting. Btw your hardworks are deeply appereciated! Please don't feel insulted! I just wanna shoot the author for keep on fooling the crowd and manipulate the market!

i think is lay hong not this counter. I can't remember exactly. But where is ze moola had made a very detail comment on the stupid management! With them still on the board I will never risk my hard earn cash on them! MSC's stupid management is another classic example! Almost all their investment end up with losses!

Yes. One even sell at a loss to QL but QL had successfully turn it around and make profit! This kind of quality also cry for foul for its low valuation. Lol!