COASTAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1vjwllS

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/q8jqzjz

My View:-

• Valuation:
  • 5-Y DCF:
    • Good Scenario: 3.8 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • Base Scenario: 3.41 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • Bad Scenario: 3.06 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    • Ugly Scenario: 2.75 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
    • If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 7.5%, COASTAL still worth 2.83.
  • Absolute EY% Valuation:
    • Trailing:
      • FY13 (EPS: 0.313) – Fair value 2.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
      • R4Q (EPS: 0.388) – Fair value 3.32 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • Forward:
      • FY14 (EPS: 0.373) – Fair value 3.19 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
      • FY15 (EPS: 0.413) – Fair value 3.54 (Fair Value Uncertainty: MEDIUM)
    • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.83): 0.331
  • Uncertainty of fair value range MEDIUM to HIGH. Valuation is not so attractive.
• I will closely monitor this stock. This is a good stock for trading.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (25 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1801813

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of COASTAL.

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2015/01/02/coastal-fundamental-analysis-2-jan-2015/