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[转贴] 走过97风暴(上):一天大跌数百点 股灾歷练女强人

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 09 Sep 2015, 11:40 AM
Tan KW
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2015年09月08日

走过97风暴(上):一天大跌数百点 股灾歷练女强人97年股市可在一天內大跌数百点,让全马股民人心惶恐。

走过97风暴的人,对当年的印象总会异口同声认为,来得太快及太猛,根本来不及出货,这个风暴是在您无法思考下,彷彿就在一夜之间,股票就成了废纸。

想当年,许多人在一夜之间倾家荡產,即使歷经近20年,谈起1997风暴,惨痛的经歷依然令不少人难忘,这个教训及功课也让许多人一辈子都铭记在心。

友爱思特创办人兼董事长暨优越医疗(EMIC)公司创办人兼执行董事刘丽宝回想当时的经歷,依然心有戚戚然,如今全球股市暴跌,许多有关股票投资失利的噩闻,唤起她当年经济风暴的残酷记忆。

从高峰跌到谷底

那一年,她从高峰跌到人生谷底,一夜之间从赚了200余万令吉,到痛挫至全副身家化为乌有,同时肩负近30万令吉的债务,当时的她,只有23岁,一个经济风暴,蒸发了她过去一切的努力。

「想到那时年仅20多岁的自己,一夜间却背负著几十万的债务,那种彷徨无助,毫无前景可言的经歷回想都会觉得难过,但我很庆幸我没有像一些人,到最后依然幻想能够孤注一掷去扭转乾坤,我承认了自己失败,再重新以正规方式,重新爬起来。」

刘丽宝接受《东方日报》访问时,提起这段遭遇。

她坦言,90年代初,时值投资和股票交易新兴,尤其股票交易指数长期趋稳健攀升,许多有关「股票买卖告捷」的传闻就激起人们对于「做少赚多」及「不劳而获」的妄念。

她回想,94至95年股市是属于高峰阶段,很多人都从中赚了一笔,没人想到97年的一场经济风暴会来得如此凶狠,让所有股民都措手不及。

「当年玩股票且真正懂得股票交易的人並不多,大多数是手中有点积蓄想找点稳赚不赔的投资机会,或者想靠鸡毛蒜皮的小常识去捞钱的投机者居多,当时只要有点闲钱,都会想跳进去股市,博个高利回酬的机会。」

她指出,97年经济风暴给了「半桶水」都不到的「投机者」上了一个迎头痛击、体无完肤的「经济课」,对于很多人来说,这堂课的代价太大了。

「当时,打回原形或赔了老本算是幸运了,但有些人却在一夜之间欠下天文数字债务,毫无翻身的机会。」

 

刘丽宝走过97风暴,重新站起来清还所有债务,活跃于社会公益的她更在去年荣获马来西亚十大杰出青年奖。
刘丽宝走过97风暴,重新站起来清还所有债务,活跃于社会公益的她更在去年荣获马来西亚十大杰出青年奖。

 

欠缺危机意识

她回想,当初年轻的自己確实歷练尚浅,凡事总以「勇」字当头,面对97年突如其来的经济风暴所引发的股市崩盘,感觉就好象处于迷糊状態,在什么也还来不及做的当下,一切都已经成了定局。

「如果要去探討当年的经济风暴到底有无预警,我相信是有的。只是当时大家对于『局势观察』、『专业知识』、『经济敏感度』等认知全然不足,加上当时人们长期置身于『前景一片光明』之中,欠缺投资应有的危机意识,急功好利,在过度乐观及毫无准备下,才有97年经济风暴的惨痛代价。」

理財观改变 劝告勿投机

自从经歷97风暴后,刘丽宝几乎绝跡股市,以正规的途径努力工作去赚钱还债,让自己重新出发,在家人及先生的协助下,在短短数年终于走出负债的阴霾,並重新拥有自己的事业。

她直言,97年经济大风暴对于她而言是人生的一堂课,是一个让自己未来走得更稳健、更扎实的人生,也正是这堂课「太昂贵」了,才让这个教训得以铭记于心,彻底改变自己的投资理財观念。

走过97后,她对于投资的心態出现很大改变,並劝请年轻人在投资时,切莫有「投机」心態,需拥有投资回酬与风险对比的认知。

「同时我也建议若非自己的专业,切记不要碰,对于任何的投资都必须有一定的了解和知识方可涉入。」

股民恐慌拋售如末日 萧庆璋走过寒冬有余悸

马来西亚针织厂商公会財政萧庆璋回溯97风暴仍心有余悸,他回应,当时股市处于高峰期,很多人都將大部分资金挪进股市,但风暴一来,股市在短短几天內就从1300点下跌,一度跌到最底270至280点,这意味著所有股票平均跌幅高达7成。

「当时我的股本跌到几乎剩30%,假设投资100万令吉在股市,在短短几天內就仅剩三四十万令吉,很多人都恐慌拋售,令吉也迅速贬值,就好象股匯末日般到来。」

 

萧庆璋回溯97风暴仍心有余悸。
萧庆璋回溯97风暴仍心有余悸。

 

股价暴跌 寢食难安

基于亏损严重,因此他亦难于砍仓,但每天看著股价暴跌也非常心疼,寢食难安,这是他人生最大的寒冬。

「当时很多同行都几乎接近倾家荡產,有些朋友是以玩对敲(Contra)方式购买股票,在股价下挫后因无法拿票,被逼让证券行以『烂价』拋售,再寻找现钱来填补差额,很多人当时都被烧到体无完肤並申报破產,在经济周转不灵下,一些企业也纷纷倒闭。」

萧庆璋指出,当时他基于是以现钱购股,因此都是纸面上严重亏损,但后来在趋势稳定,他再趁低吸纳优质股,並在股价升高后卖出,拉长补短,才不至于严重受伤。

「当时大家都是毫无准备状態下面临经济风暴,最大影响是有投资股匯的人士。」

他透露,他用了两三年的时间,从企业所获得的盈余再进行多元投资,才让自己翻身。

走过这一关,他所获得结论是,不要把所有资金投注在股市,因风险较大,应分开多元投资,才能保障自己的財务。

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/features/zt971

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

ks55

Cannot stand 5% losses? Try out with REITs.

Let suppose you have 1m cash asset (Share, FD, Bonds, Treasury bills, SA etc excluding EPF). How much risk you you can take?

Some people can stand up to 50% loses (if they are still young <35 yr old)
Some people can only stand up to 20% loses. (may be for 40 -50 yr old)
Some may be 10%, or 5%. (Retired or near to retirement >50 yr old)
It is really depends on your degree of tolerance.

Some may be young, but they have low degree of tolerance. Their temper will fluctuate with market performance. Market good, they got excited. Market down, they will not be able to sleep. This will affect their job performance.

My advice is, if you invest up to 500k, you find that your temper already being jeopardized, reduce to 400k. If still find hard to sleep, reduce further to 300k, 200k,100k etc. There should come to a level whether market up or down doesn't affect performance of your main career anymore. That is your tolerance level.

Some may have 1m cash asset, but not able to stand a 5k loses. These people are not risk taker, share market is definitely not suitable for them. REITs may be most suitable for them as it is low risk with medium gain. Otherwise will be FD or MGS.

Again a word of caution. Don't commit 100% of your cash asset in share market. Always keep some for rainy days. Worse still if you try to buy on margin in this coming turbulence market.

Think safe, play safe, invest safe. If want to punt, punt safe.
If you lose money, it is you who are not good enough to engage in stock market. Why want to blame others ??


IF YOU LOSE MONEY, IT IS BECAUSE YOU ARE NO GOOD. DON'T BLAME PEOPLE LIKE A SMALL BOY...

2015-09-09 12:11

ks55

###Anyone lived through the experience in 1997-1998 during the Asian Currency Crisis and the political turmoil at home and saw how the KLCI and the Second Board Indices fell like waterfall and imagine the devastations caused by margin financing?###

Yes. I did. It happened to some of my close acquaintance in 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis.
I knew personally the following cases of devastation because of margin finance.

1. An accountant who make a million just before the crash in 1997 ended up losing all his money (capital plus earlier profit), refinanced his house and still could not settle outstanding losses. He was bailed out by his business associates and made monthly settlement through salary deduction.

2. A businessman who lost his bungalow, business, cars and everything. He lost multiple millions. Finally stayed in a rented flat, wife and son had to make a living as a night market (pasar malam) vendor.

3. A high ranking government servant lost all his hard earned saving and profit from stock market earlier, then still owe bank a few hundred thousands OD. Children just about to enter university. Life was really miserable for next decade or so, facing increasing expenditure and still have to service bank interest plus principal.

4. There were a few more cases I know of (from trading floor of brokering house) but those people were not close acquaintance, got very severe burnt and they are no more exist in the stock market now.

5. Due to what had happened in 1997/98 always come back vividly in my memory, I am really against using OPM for share investment, always reserve certain cash in FD, diversify asset allocation, invest safe, if I want to punt, I will punt safe........

2015-09-09 12:21

ks55

Just go through 30 major shareholders of any listed company from their annual report. Find out whether their shares are pledged and registered under nominee account. By all means, avoid the counters. It simply indicate to me major shareholders are very weak and any time these pledged shares can be forced sale under present market sentiment.

One good example is all Lion Group shares are pledged by WC and mostly just leave 5 to 25% from their respective height.

Good to play safe by voiding the potential booby traps..........Please don't respond unless I know you.

2015-09-09 12:31

ganasai

Buy stock must know the stock value worth. During 199x, a lot of stock price up far far than the stock value itself. This kind of pyramid price cause a lot of people lost their pant. Now people smart already. Old generation also dont want touch stock.

2015-09-09 13:30

Evertraveler

I am curious what is the average P/E of bank sector during 1997 before the crisis? Is it much higher than current P/E ratio?

2015-09-10 13:37

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