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[转贴] 冷眼先生-交流记 - RH Research
冷眼先生-交流记
今天很有幸的，能与冷眼先生有个交流会。就在此和大家分享吧。
一直以来有99%的人都会问他对市场的看法。这让冷眼先生很不解，为什么大家都不是问他对公司的看法呢。投资本来就应该关心公司的营运和前景，而不是市场。他对目前市场走势也不了解。
投资模式有很多。无论什么数据和计价证明，只要你不能从股市赚钱，一切都是空谈。投资本来是件很简单的东西，但很多人却把他复杂化。只要你能从生意的角度去看价值，市场的行情走势和股价对你不会有影响。
以AirAsia为例子，他说如果给你选AAX和AirAsia，你会选哪个？其实这答案很简单。冷眼先生说如果想起国内航班或便宜班机，你会想起什么航线？如果想起国际航班，你又会想起什么航线?这答案顿时点醒了我! AirAsia最新季度扣除了外汇收入大概在每股10-15cent左右。至于它的价值呢，他说这要看看市场到底会给AirAsia什么PE。
谈起债务，冷眼先生也对此有另一番见解。以他过往的经验，债务并不是最重要的一环。就算一个公司债务再高，只要那公司能持续带来positive营运现金流，这代表公司营运没什么问题，也能解决债务的负担。只要那公司业务能持续增长，债务也只是个数字。Cash Flow和Profit才是一门生意的王道。这番答案不得不让我对冷眼先生的生意眼光和见解，感到佩服！
此外，冷眼先生也对NTA有不同的看法。NTA是一间公司的净资产，他是不属于股东的。就算cash和asset再多，只要公司不好好利用来增加收益，也与股东无关。当然，一间又高现金又有好业绩的公司，更是最好不过。所以呢，NTA不是他选支股票的考量。
总结来说，冷眼先生选股精髓就在以下。这已经排除了NTA。
G – Growth 成长
D – Dividend 股息
P – Price (PER) 价值
P – Profit 盈利
R – ROE 股东回酬
C – Cash Flow 营运现金流
最后，冷眼先生说市场有80-90%的人是没能赚钱的，有时不是因为选错股，而是缺少了真确的心态和定力！这点只有靠你自己磨练才能领悟。所以呢，他鼓励投资者不停地看书增加知识。活到老，学到老。
附上冷眼先生的名言！“复杂的事简单做，简单的事正确做，正确的事常常做。”
希望我的分享能帮助更多投资者减少撞板！这次的交流真的获益不浅，也很期待冷眼先生未来将推出的新书。
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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 9 of 9 comments
what he said...what u write...is VERY COMMON SENSE...
haha
also...quite surprise now u only know this common sense
2016-06-16 12:56
Earth 借冷眼前辈的名声来推销某些股票， 是不道德的。
16/06/2016 12:12
现在一堆Pasar Malam kakies 的中文bloggers就是这样。
2016-06-16 13:24
Just take a look at tiger airway and scoots both budget airlines managed by Singapore Airlines which are not profitable, this example tells u how difficult for a budget airline to stay profitable.
I caution those who wish to acquire AA or AAX now, use your common sense.
2016-06-16 17:35
There are many global airline get into bankruptcy, their bussiness modal is easily to be replicated by competitors..over capacity, fuel price and high cost are issue for long term investor. Preference share of US air airline had been invested by warren Buffett,but the interest was defaulted for many years.
2016-06-17 08:31
复杂的事简单做，简单的事正确做，正确的事常常做
From what I know... Mr. Fong never qoute this. Proof to me wherever you saw this qoutation from him.
But I personally like this qoutation.
2016-06-17 16:11
"复杂的事简单做，简单的事正确做，正确的事常常做"
Great. Even though I dont know where did he get this pharase from, but it really sounds like Coldeye's philosophy.
2016-06-18 10:56
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