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[转贴] 內銀抽到爆機 - 止凡

Tan KW
Publish date: Tue, 30 Jan 2018, 11:01 PM
Tan KW
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2018年1月30日星期二 

 
早兩日內銀爆升,今天算是回一回。之前都提過,對於大眾突然欣喜內銀股有所感言,見《這些年來的價與值》與《匯控建行突變硬》。近日聽到有少眾再次評論談論內銀的具體風險問題,見內銀狂破頂,又值得唱個反調。



首先提及的是一個相當聰明的造數方法,有報導指上海浦發銀行其中一家分行向近1500家空殼公司批出貸款,當中涉及近200名員工。

原來銀行先借貸予這些空殼公司,這些空殼公司取得資金之後,就再買回浦發銀行的壞帳。銀行就可以把壞帳「打包」賣出,增加貸款額之餘又可以解決壞帳,實在聰明。

這事件涉及的資金高達700多億元人民幣,而浦發銀行一整年的盈利也只是500多億元,即依這方法所減輕的壞帳撥備已超過一年的盈利。中國銀監會向這銀行作出重罰,罰款4.62億元人民幣。

大家可以想想,這只是一家銀行中其中一個小小分行的行為,已經能製造出如此誇張的數字,此事件是否冰山一角呢?


另外,有報導指早前高價在港投得多塊地皮的海航集團資金出現問題,因此需要急急向銀行提出融資。近日,海航旗下天海投資的銀行賬號一度遭司法凍結。據彭博引述消息人士透露,是因為集團將天海投資的股份重覆抵押。

彭博報導,海航旗下的海航科技集團,將子公司天海投資的7000萬股股份向寧波通商銀行抵押,以換取4.5億元人民幣的貸款,惟寧波通商銀行發現,該批股份同時遭抵押予另一個債權人,故尋求凍結相關的銀行賬號。該行拒絕置評。

天海投資發公告,指就該批貸款為海航科技集團提供擔保,僅指與寧波通商銀行就還款協議存在分歧,故三個銀行賬號遭尋求司法凍結,發現後已與寧波通商銀行溝通和解決問題,並將賬號解凍。

向銀行融資時把抵押品重覆使用,情況就如你拿同一家物業,到A銀行造完按揭,取得貸款後再到B銀行又造,再到C銀行,這也可以嗎?實在奇怪。

最令人擔心的是內地銀行的資料庫未必發達,不只說不同銀行未有資料庫協調,可能連同一家銀行的不同省分行也未必可以檢查到重覆抵押的問題,又或者不理會有否重覆抵押而照借可也。到底這些重覆抵押事件是否真的出現?


還有一個問題,有消息指,在一次中國銀行業協會組織研討會後,10家內地股份制銀行向監管機構上書意見,表示部分新規則或會導致系統性金融危機,建議延長過渡期至3年。他們指,一些長期貸款年期超過理財產品存續年期,過渡期完結後雖然貸款並未準備好償還,但未能續發資產管理產品承接。

這是什麼一回事呢?或者不少人都會經常收到內地銀行的一些短訊指某類理財產品回報可觀,半年有5厘,一年有十厘八厘,其實這些理財產品可能有點似馬多夫案,不斷以新資金補貼舊資金的回報,不停地續期是一個解決方法。

若監管機構一刀切地不批准續期,要銀行立即償還產品,或會造成爆煲。雖然後來監管機構發聲明否認聯合上書一事,不過這的確是一大金融危機。


三個問題,有多真確,有多嚴重,我不清楚,內銀一向問題多多,股價低迷多年,原因不難理解,因為市場總不喜歡不能量化的風險。如今,內銀爆升,抽到爆機,這些問題突然又能量化了嗎?還是消失了嗎?

或許你會問止凡是否看淡內銀,投資不是非黑即白。試試訓練一下思維,人人唱好時,看看淡面;人人唱淡時,看看好面,這更容易找到價值。人人看淡沽貨之時,不妨看好要貨;人人看好買貨之時,不妨看淡沽貨,大家會發現這遊戲很有趣。

http://cpleung826.blogspot.my/2018/01/blog-post_30.html

Discussions
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PlsGiveBonus

Fractional reserve banking is the banking system most countries use today.

It requires banks to hold only a fraction of the money their customers deposit. That amount is the reserve requirement, and in most countries it’s set by the central bank. Banks can loan the rest of their deposits to other customers, which serves to expand the economy.

It works like this:

Banks accept deposits from individuals and businesses, providing them with savings and checking accounts in return. Banks can loan out the bulk of those deposits to other customers to buy homes or cars, start businesses or to fund other projects.

If a customers deposits $100,000 into a bank, and the reserve requirement is 5%, the bank can loan $95,000 out to other customers.

Once the bank has loaned out $95,000, it in essence has created $195,000. Customers borrow that $95,000 and deposit some, or all, of it into other banks. If the reserve requirement is still 5%, then the other banks can loan $90,250 to new customers. And the process keeps repeating itself.

Financial crises occur when the fractional banking system breaks down and the money supply does not expand.

Many U.S. banks had to shut down during the Great Depression because so many people attempted to withdraw their money at the same time. Today, safeguards exist to prevent such an occurrence.

2018-01-30 23:48

PlsGiveBonus

What you can do to beat the bankster?
1. Apply as many credit card as possible from any bank with unlimited credit limit
2. Swipe the credit card and buy as much crypto as possible until it is broken
3. Withdraw the crypto currency and keep it inside a safe private paper wallet.
4. Run to other country and wait for the market crash is over
5. Congrats you are officially multi-millionaires or may be billionaires now!!
6. May be you will become the top most wanted pursuit, but who care since you are now super rich, you can buy your way to become “clean” again

2018-01-30 23:54

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