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[转贴] 20181201 中美贸易战跟进 - Leo Ting
Saturday, 1 December 2018
简单来说，G20会议过后，
中美贸易战第一回合暂时结束。
就像笔者上一篇文章所写的，
叫牌叫最大声的时候（赶中国出WTO），
就是游戏要进行收尾的阶段。
特朗普在刚刚过去的美国期中选举，
赢了参议院，丢掉了众议院。
所以，接下来是要准备面对两年后的大选连任了，
加征关税会引起严重的通膨，
最后导致严重民怨，
所以，特朗普并没有真正的征高关税。
另外，特朗普的台湾牌也失效了，
所以，特朗普让步也是应该的。
作为回报，中共必须对台湾，
尤其高雄人大量输送游客和购买农渔品。
大马是最大的受害者。
选择中立，不亲美又反中，
最后，两头不到岸。
丧失了中国游客和资金，
种植业又面对巨大的问题。
无论如何，世界大势局局新，
这不是结束。
中美贸易战的第一回合结束，
不代表角力结束，
只代表了大家各自整顿局面，
为未来可能的摊牌做准备。
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1 person likes this. Showing 2 of 2 comments
don't be too excited, markets viewed no new tariffs for 3 mths as expected, no surprise at all.
dt is well known good in nothing but can turn the table up side down anytime, so don't see any upside catalyst for bursa market
2018-12-02 17:33
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根本没结束，只是多给九十天回旋调整。
2018-12-02 17:18