CULIACAN, Mexico - Scarred by the last bout of intra-cartel fighting, residents in the northern Mexican state of Sinaloa are bracing themselves for violence amid fears the arrest of legendary drug lord Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada could spark a fissure and a bloody war.

Zambada, who co-founded the Sinaloa Cartel in the late 1980s with former kingping Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, was detained last week near El Paso, Texas, after disembarking from a small plane. Surprise at the dramatic arrest quickly turned to trepidation in Sinaloa as it emerged one of El Chapo's sons purportedly betrayed the cartel's elder statesman.

El Chapo's son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, had been having lengthy talks about surrendering with U.S. authorities, according to multiple current and former officials who spoke to Reuters last week and suggested he duped Zambada to get on the flight. But Zambada’s lawyer, Frank Perez, has alleged that his client was violently kidnapped by six gunmen, who bundled him onto the aircraft.

Residents fear Zambada's family members, who hold high-level positions in the cartel, will bid to avenge their father’s betrayal and spark a conflict. A similar claim of treachery in 2008 led to years of brutal infighting that convulsed Sinaloa.

The situation in Sinaloa is likely to get "ugly", according to a cartel member in Sinaloa who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity.

"The arrest of El Mayo could cause a lot of war, between the narcos," added Bonifacio, a resident in state capital Culiacan, who like all the others interviewed in the city declined to give his full name due to fears about his security.

Mexico's military has sent about 400 troops into Sinaloa after the arrest, including 200 elite Special Forces soldiers.

Zambada and Joaquin Guzman are key leaders of two of the most powerful factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, which is made up of several groupings that wield power in different territories across the state and country. They often pool resources, but sometimes also clash.

Guzman Lopez is one of four brothers - known as Los Chapitos, or the Little Chapos - who inherited their father’s portion of the cartel. El Mayo commanded another major faction.

After El Chapo’s extradition to the United States in 2017 and the ascent of his sons, the two groupings have had a tense relationship, though it never spilled out into all-out warfare.

Jose, another Culiacan resident, said he's preparing himself for shootouts in the city after Zambada's arrest. "It is very big what happened," he said, "It is not just anything."

POWER VACUUM

Sinaloans are feverishly speculating about the events that led to Zambada's arrest because they know the opening of a power vacuum often results in violence, said America Armenta, an independent Sinaloan journalist in Culiacan.

"That fear remains because we know in the past how the organized crime groups have reacted when there is free (territory) somewhere," she said.

Many residents still harbour painful memories from a 2008 fallout, when Sinaloa was plunged into chaos after the detention of powerful drug lord Alfredo Beltran Leyva, whose family accused El Chapo of helping orchestrate that arrest. They alleged El Chapo struck a quid-pro-quo deal with Mexican authorities for the release of his then-imprisoned son, Ivan Guzman Salazar.

Spasms of grisly violence shattered the relative sense of tranquility in Sinaloa at the time. Shootouts, targeted killings and demonstrations of violence, such as bodies hanged off bridges, punctuated daily life in Sinaloa.

More recently, Sinaloa Cartel gunmen laid siege to Culiacan in 2019 after the military detained another of El Chapo's sons, Ovidio Guzman Lopez. Cartel foot soldiers blocked roads with burning cars and paralyzed the city amid shootouts with security troops, forcing the military to release Ovidio in an event locals call "Culiacanazo".

Many people are "mortified because we are afraid of a new Culiacanazo", said Tomas, another Culiacan resident.

"We are going to be on alert," he said.

  - Reuters