China’s steel industry is facing a crisis more serious than the downturns of 2008 and 2015, the world’s biggest producer warned, highlighting a need to preserve cash and likening conditions to a “severe winter”.

The crisis will likely be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected”, Hu Wangming, the chairman of China Baowu Steel Group Corp, told the company’s half-year meeting, according to a statement.

China’s steel market - by far the world’s largest - is flashing multiple warning signs as the property downturn and weaker factory activity have ravaged domestic demand this year, with prices plunging to multiyear lows and mills racking up losses. Baowu alone produces about 7% of the world’s steel, and Hu’s stark message will likely be a worry for rivals across Asia, Europe and North America as they grapple with a fresh wave of Chinese exports.

The country’s steel industry suffered devastating slumps during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and again in 2015-2016. In both cases, the crises were ultimately resolved by massive stimulus - a prospect that looks more remote in 2024 as Chinese President Xi Jinping bids to reshape the economy.

Baowu didn’t offer much on the causes of the current downturn, focusing on how employees should respond - by preserving cash and minimising risks.

“Financial departments at all levels should pay more attention to the security of the company’s funding,” the statement said, with a need to strengthen controls, including for overdue payments and detecting fake trades. “In the process of crossing the long and harsh winter, cash is more important than profit.”

As mills struggle, iron ore inventories are swelling, while reinforcement bar, used in construction, is cheaper than at any time since 2017. It’s increasingly unprofitable to make steel, putting mills under pressure to cut production. Meanwhile, exports are on course to top 100 million tons, the most since 2016.

Baowu’s warning underscores a darkening mood, with iron ore - the key commodity needed to make steel - tumbling back below US$100 a ton. Futures fell 1.7% to US$96.85 a ton on Wednesday, taking losses for this year to more than 30%.

  - Bloomberg