The final United States (U.S.) presidential debate was held last Friday (23 Oct). We move into the final days of campaigning with the 2020 U.S. presidential election scheduled for Tuesday, 3 November 2020.

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Counting Down to the Elections

The final U.S. presidential debate was held last Friday. Major topics discussed include fighting COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security and leadership. Despite President Trump’s calmer demeanor, which analysts felt played out better with investors, it may be too late to sway early voters – more than 45mil Americans have already voted.

In the latest polling tracked by the Guardian on 25 October, Biden remains the front runner, leading with 51.8% over Trump’s 42%. While Biden holds a clear lead, it does not guarantee a Democratic victory as seen in the 2016 election, where Hilary Clinton lost despite holding the popular national vote. The race is close and will likely boil down to key battleground states or swing states that could decide the outcome.

From the second half of February 2020, the SP500 began its tumble to close at a low of 2,237.4 points on 23 March, 30.7% lower year-to-date (YTD). However, the index then went on a bullish run in the months that follow, closing at a YTD high of 3,580.84 points on 2 September, before losing some momentum to end the month of September at 3,363.0 points (-3.9% month-on-month). In October, the index rose to the month’s high of 3,534.22 points on 12 October, before paring its gains to close at 3,390.68 points yesterday, 0.8% higher month-to-date.

Source: Macquarie Research - 28 Oct 2020