Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Overweight Plantation Shares - Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Sat, 21 Jun 2014, 01:31 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
Overweight Plantation Shares
Koon Yew Yin
The following is an extract from RHB’s article of 17th June 2014 quote: We believe palm oil should start trading higher, especially after its price has recovered above the MYR2,400 level. The current hot and dry spell in Malaysia, due to the southwest monsoon that is expected to persist until September, will hurt palm oil production – much like in Jan-Feb this year. Also, tensions in Iraq are boosting crude oil prices and biodiesel margins, which will increase demand. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
If you study the above table carefully you will notice that Jaya Tiasa has the best profit growth rate. Its P/E ratio for 2014 and 2015 are 15.5 and 11.4. Moreover, its EV/ha is about the cheapest.
After having read this RHB’s article, I realize that I have to write this article to correct the wrong impression which I may have given at my recent investment seminar on 1st June.
During the seminar I said that no share could continuously to go up or come down for whatever reasons and we must take advantage of this phenomenon to make money. I said as an example, Jaya Tiasa, had gone up about 30% from Rm 2.10 to Rm 2.72 in the last 5 months. I sold some to take some profit and to reduce my margin loan. I also said that you could always back Jaya Tiasa when it was cheaper.
Now is the best time to buy back Jaya Tiasa.
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 125 comments
With plantation stocks, you just buy now and hold until CPO price touches near to RM 3,000 and that will take quite a while. U can definitely sleep with peace of mind!! SO GO BUY PLANTATION STOCKS !! YOU WILL NOT HAVE TO FEAR PEOPLE THROWING OUT THE STOCKS LIKE PMC!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 15:26
When the weather is HOT & DRY , its good for CPO prices. If the Hot & Dry weather persist and continues till September 2014 then it will extremely good for Plantation stocks especially those with lots of young maturing trees !!
2014-06-22 15:32
I was not wrong in believing Fortune has unravel and unlock future stock potentials! few men has the gift to use laymen terms whilst predicting future based on past performance while other fails to see it coming! sunzthze - you might stand a chance to survive the bear market listening our friend here! after hot sunny weather and enthralling fishing sessions !hahahahahahaaaaa
2014-06-22 15:37
Ayam Tua, Have you already invested in plantation stocks or planning to do so? If not please take this opportunity to read Mr Koon's blog on plantation stock and take some initial position next week.
2014-06-22 15:38
Ayam Tua, After hot sunny weather and enthralling fishing sessions, super ice cold Alicafe with tongkat Ali coffee is best recommendation to recharge and gain power back!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 15:46
fortunebullz
1506 posts
Posted by fortunebullz > Jun 22, 2014 03:08 PM | Report Abuse
No! I wait until the day CPO not enough to feed those hungry fat useless McDonald regulars! But I am tempted to buy PMCorp! I heard tudor gold is haram chocolate! Or is it, chadbury chocolate! Hahahaha!
---
future has been properly co-related and factored in .. a prediction been made and research! answer pretty clear! light years away !
2014-06-22 15:49
Fortunebullz, Are you gulping down lotsa super ice cold Alicafe coffee with tongkat Ali. How was it? Feeling good, recharged now and ready to go again?? !! HAHAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 15:49
Ayam Tua, I like your response on "light years away" and that means there will be further price weakness and I can collect a lower prices!!! HAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 15:53
im not joking nor pulling his legs - fortunebullz does have future prediction gifts! not many can see it coming as perfectly described ! give and take - fortunebullz stock picks thrives many folds comparing to average joes even me!
2014-06-22 15:56
sunztzhe
342 posts
Posted by sunztzhe > Jun 22, 2014 03:53 PM | Report Abuse
Ayam Tua, I like your response on "light years away" and that means there will be further price weakness and I can collect a lower prices!!! HAHAHAHAHA
-- yes, pmcorp all time low! collect ! a graham net net stock - even benjamin graham may woke up from grave to invest in pmcorp!
:-)
2014-06-22 16:00
Very good info...as long as ayam tua and fortunebullz are not in plantation stocks, I have more time to collect the plantation stocks as buying will still be muted. Thank you very much!! HAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 16:05
kukuman: dont forget mikekong55, calvin tan , leroycaster, candygirls, kcchongnz, leno , otb , tewnama, dreamhunter, alexb2b, cweed, vinvin - all i3 legendaries ! must give credits to them too!
2014-06-22 16:16
Kukuman,
HAHAHAHAHAHA You lighted up my day on "old cock and bull cock coming together, nothing is impossible" !!! HAHAHAHAAHA
2014-06-22 16:16
and abdulhalim, YK John, Dragon Slayer , WiseEye, bnspjg, tjhldg etc etc all bursa experts!
2014-06-22 16:19
Ayam Tua, don't forget Kukuman especially for his succinct apt comments and crispy scintillating humour!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 16:23
Dear All,
I have read all the comments commented by all commentators. It appears that they are some who demonstrated immature and amateurish comments. However, I wish to suggest that you buy MPHB Capital if you have some spare cash. I have urged readers of this blog to invest into MPHB Capital many months ago. Well, please think about it but you can always choose to buy Mulpha or Jaya Tiasa. The other counter which I think is good for long long term hold is Riverview.
2014-06-22 16:24
.. and course - speakup ! i have seen him in other threads! it's the truth! ha ha ha
2014-06-22 16:32
yes cepat, once hot can run fast
another one kmloong, cash rich plant co,
proposed 8sen dividend,
full year around 13sen but slow like grandpa
2014-06-22 17:55
Very Good,
Looks like a little Investlah stock pick challenge for Year 2014. 2nd Half
More than 110 posts in 2 days with inputs from many. May I dedicate these words to all:
The Day Is Done;
Its Hours Have Run.
And All Have Posted One By One.
The Fervent Hope;
The Passionate Plea.
i3's Truly A Place of Fun
And May The Days, Weeks, Months of This Remaining Year of 2014 Bring Prosperity To All Here in i3 Forum Site.
2014-06-22 18:09
I don't understand how RHBCap's CFA worked out PER of Jtiasa 15.5 times(CY 14) & 11.4 times(CY 15).
Currently, Jtiasa is traded at PER 46 times with rolling 4 quarters EPS 5.46 cents. To achieve PER 15.5 times for CY 14, it needs make a very goods profits 11.4 cents in final quarter to cover shortfall for the last 3 quarters.
EPS:
FY 2014 - 4th Qtr - 11.4 cents???
FY 2014 - 3rd Qtr - 0.84 cents
FY 2014 - 2nd Qtr - 2.05 cents
FY 2014 - 1st Qtr - 1.97 cents
FY 2013 - 4th Qtr - 0.60 cents
Base on its existing financial performance, it's really going to be an uphill battle for Jtiasa to catch up PER 11.4 times or EPS 21.6 cents or profit after tax 210 million in CY 15. Is it his assumption based on optimistic CPO prices rising to RM 3,500/mt in next few months?
2014-06-22 18:43
Wah! I am surprised to see 112 comments for this article I posted about 18 hours ago. I appreciate all your commentaries, even those that are not useful. For a change, you may like to read this:
Subject:The pleasures of an After Life !
Gwen was one of those women who had never had a boyfriend.
>
>She went to a Psychic for help.
>Honey! - said the Psychic. You will not have luck in love in this life. But after death, you will be a much desired woman and all men will fall at your feet.
>
>Gwen left very happy and so excited, as she went over a bridge she thought:
>
>"The sooner I die, the sooner my next life begins”
>
>She decided to jump off the bridge right away. Incredibly Gwen didn't die!
>
>She fell on the back of a truck full of bananas; she lost her senses and
fainted.
>
>As soon as she recovered, still drowsy and not being able to see very well,
>
>and not knowing where she was, she started touching her surroundings,
>
>feeling all the bananas she mumbled with a huge smile on her face and said:
>
>"GENTLEMEN, PLEASE,… ONE AT A TIME!"
2014-06-22 19:06
HAHAHAHAHA Good One Mr Koon!!
Cannot wait anymore lah..Better make up for LOST TIME & DO IT QUICK QUICK IN SUCCESSION...Buy JTIASA, THPLANT, SWKPLNT, TAANN, WTK !! HAHAHAHAHA
2014-06-22 19:23
everyone know EAH will be a buy tomorow! hahahaa
bonus stock: AHB, Leesk, Luster & MAS
must have stock of the century - put in undewear too!
ha ha ha
2014-06-22 19:26
Plantation use to be Raider core investment...!!
Why ?
If u buy into plantation.............u r making 2 bets loh.....!!
1) The palm trees that give u yield n return in the term of palmoils.
2) The plantation land.............is a real estate bets to hedge against inflation n potential capital appreciation loh........!!
So long u buy into plantaion.........without over paying..........u investment will do well over time loh.............!!
2014-06-22 19:59
I would focus on the primary objective of increasing profits and increasing EPS & ROCE rather than appreciation of plantation land as this is a more immediate contributor to share price increase.
Appreciation of property in plantation lands is a very long term cycle unless there are sizeable plantation near major market centers with adequate infrastructure that can easily be developed into new township cum commercial centers. If that is a twin objective of investment in plantation coys it may be better to focus on plantation coys in Malaysia rather than Indonesia as land is scarcer in Malaysia relative to Indonesia.
Palm Oil price moves in cycles and when there is a good possibility of increasing CPO price due to the likely prospect of a prolonged dry season, I would rather focus on plantation coys with large tracts of land with majority percentage of fast maturing young oil palm trees that will give the highest profit quantum and highest % increase of EPS and ROCE.
2014-06-22 20:59
Palm n land (property) doing very well....soon cpo will be the major contributor
2014-06-22 22:58
I believe one reason for rice being expensive in Malaysia is largely because of the import quotas and price controls imposed by Bernas. Another reason perhaps is that Malaysian rice farmers are not as cost competitive and productive as other rice growers in the region, notably Thailand. We do not grow enough for the local population let alone for export globally. So far, I have not seen any Malaysian-grown rice sold in US stores.
I argue that rice should be included in the US-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks and CAP (Consumers Association of Penang) should lobby the government to introduce legislation to lower or abolish tariffs and ban rice import quotas.
The argument is often made that the US is subsidising its rice growers and exporters to gain an unfair price advantage. One can say that Bernas, too, is subsidising our local rice farmers by forcing the 'rakyat' to overpay for rice in order to protect the local rice industry. These import quotas and tariffs only serve to restrict the supply of rice in the market and artificially inflate its price in Malaysia.
2014-06-23 10:25
andychucky28, support u on rice as long grain US rice actually taste better. Sooner or later Malaysia has to grow up ,be cost competitive and fight in the international markets. These protection ONLY benefit the cronies at Malaysian taxpayers expense as Malaysian taxpayers has to pay higher prices and our per capita income is relatively low by world standards.
2014-06-23 10:33
Yes Suntzhe, the malaysians taxpayers have to pay higher tax due to this. And now they still want to introduce GST. This is called tax on top of tax.
2014-06-23 10:39
The story is quite similar to Proton where the rakyat is forced to pay higher prices due to the inefficiency of the GLCs.
2014-06-23 11:17
Justification for Jtiasa CY14 PE 15:
Please take note that it is stated in CY--Calender year, not FY--Financial year
currently it is the third quarter result of Jtiasa financial year, but it is the first quarter of financial year result ended March.
Jtiasa still have three calender year quarters to go--ended June, September and December.
If you look back at Jtiasa's 2012 financial year earning when CPO price is high, it was able to achieve 20 cents earning per share.
To get a PE of 15 with share price RM2.50, it needs to earn 16 cents. It shouldn't be a big problem, given that ffb production has been increasing a lot and it still have logging business. In addition, there are less land for Jtiasa to plant, thus less expenses incurred.
The main point is CPO price must reach RM3,000 per MT, so that Jtiasa can earn more for doing nothing.
2014-06-24 09:24
Always look at fully diluted EPS mah.....!!
Latest Profit about Rm 31m per quarter....annualized Rm 124m.
Number of share....1600 million share....!!
EPS per share Rm 0.07.
Say PE 18x....mean Boustead Plant should be Rm 1.40....!!
That's why share price is not moving up....with a premium of rm 0.03 against IPO price of Rm 1.60.
2014-06-26 12:58
Dear Respected Mr Koon & Expert stockraider,
You guys are so great, so expert in stock analysis. I like to read ur comment. I have learned many new things from u guys.
Hope I can learn more and more from u guys.
Thanks you and happy trading!
2014-06-26 13:02
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sunztzhe
Go buy plantation stocks now while the prices are still correcting or near selling exhaustion!! CPO price is now hovering @RM2,400 and with the resumption of haze and dry weather, CPO price will most likely go up.
2014-06-22 15:21