LCTITAN is in a long cycle industry but Asia continent will continue to grow and
buying opportunity emerges during cyclical donturn

This stock is undervalued. It had not been paying dividends as it was undercapitalized for its business. The recent rights issue has increased its capital base, will enable it to expand its biz and position MNRB to pay dividends again in the future. Market has just started the process to rerate MNRB upward.

Downside is very limited.
Risk Reward favors a LONG position at current price level

It is obvious that Jaks had failed to hand over vacant possession on time.


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Star Media Group’s counsel Wong Guo Bin said JIC filed the Erinford injunction at the Court of Appeal after JIC failed to get an injunction at the High Court on July 23.

The bank guarantees release were in relation to a delayed property development in Section 13, Petaling Jaya. JIC failed to hand over vacant possession on time.

The Court of Appeal’s panel comprising Justices Idrus Harun, Suraya Othman and Stephen Chung Hian Guan, dismissed JIC’s Erinford injunction application.

The panel found no merits in JIC’s application and dismissed both applications with costs of RM10,000 to be paid by JIC to Star Media Group. The effect is that the bank has to comply with the High Court’s order which directed the bank guarantees to be released to Star Media Group in five working days and the last day is on Monday (July 30),” he said when contacted.

Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/07/28/court-of-appeal-dismisses-jaks-bid-on-bank-guarantees/#cJos9IDs6wSzOvT7.99

Good morning Mr Koon,

Thank you for sharing the above information from your perspective as a major shareholder of Jaks. I have several questions to ask you.

Question 1
As a major shareholder of Jaks, do you have 100% knowledge on the terms and condition of actual agreement signed between Jaks and Star?


Have you seen and perused through in detail the terms and conditions of the contractual agreement/agreements?


Question 2
You had earlier on stated in your previous comments that Star had requested for design changes after the original contractual agreement was signed and that these design changes took more time as it required the official approval from the relevant authorities and that has caused the delay in completing the project on time.

Now you had stated above that "The construction was delayed because the whole project is too large".

So what is the real situation now? Was the delay due to additional design changes required from Star or was the project too big to be completed within the contractual delivery time?


Question 3
When Star made further changes to the original design, did Jaks management obtain Star agreement to a revised project completion and delivery date?

If Jaks had secured Stars written agreement to a revised but much delayed completion date then has Jaks failed to complete the project on time?


Question 4
Will the recall of the RM 50 million bond has an enormous impact on Jaks current operational cashflow?

Question 5
If the answer to question 4 is affirmative, then what is the next step forward for Jaks board of Directors and Jaks management to take?


Thank you in advance for your response the above.


Best wishes to your successful investment in Jaks.

TM in multiyear time frame is an uptrending stock
The severe price correction is over for TM
It successfully penetrated upward the first resistance @3.61
Next immediate resistance @4.20

Long term target price @7.17

This stock in Multiyear timeframe is SIDEWAYS and currently is oversold in big time frame.
High chance recent price correction after hitting a recent high of 3.98 maybe ending.
Weak strength now for downtrend and low chance for further downtrend
High chance it goes sideways with upside bias with immediate target resistance of 2.40

HY just started its uptrend. More upside to come in waves after waves UP.

4/4/2018:last engulfing black indicate downtrend is losing downward momentum. Reversal is in the offing
5/4/2018: Bullish harami confirmed reversal UP.
6/4/2018: long white candle confirmed strong reversal UP

This is the start of Wave 3 UP. Wave 3 UP is usually the strongest wave UP.

Wave 1 was the strong wave up from low of 1.99 to high of 19.20.
Wave 2 was the sustained corrective wave down from 19.20 to 6.02
Wave 3 just started from 6.02 and now its at 9.06

Wave 3 will be a super wave UP.

Good timing now to buy HY when it is starting on its super wave 3 UP.

Its ok if you had missed wave 1 up. Wave 1 is over and done with. Wave 2 corrective wave just ended. Wave 3 just started.

One will be missing a lot if one do not catch HY to ride its super wave 3 UP. High chance you will recover all your losses experienced on wave 2 down and furthermore make profits on its superwave 3 up.

Goodluck to your successful investment

Perhaps current price up is a tacit indication that upcoming QR due in May 2018 may surpass expectation of the majority since most are rather downbeat on its upcoming Q1 2018 earnings.

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Posted by david_tan > Apr 9, 2018 05:20 PM | Report Abuse
Please take a look at my analysis on Hengyuan's Q1 2018 profitability.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/financialpedia/152815.jsp

Easy to move higher now as shares had been taken off jittery hands.

Composite man understands mindset of retailers extremely well. Another flush down in afternoon to take shares off the hands of the weak holders.

Weak holders will end up buying HY at higher prices and paying more commissions

Uptrend has just started, but majority are still framed with representative bias of price going down.

Sell now, Buy back at higher price later

This is classic behavior of traders exhibiting "certainty bias" where traders prefer the certainty of locking in smaller profits rather than the uncertainty of securing a much larger profit.

Hence the big difference between Superinvestor vs the Traders.

There were notable old faithfuls who were so engrossed with their anchored views of HY future fundamentals to the extent that they deliberately ignored warning signs of impending HY price correction after hitting a new high of 19.20 and consequently mis-represented the new info on the potential severity of impending price correction .This is classic cognitive dissonance at work.

Frankly, at that time ...no one knows how severe the price correction will pan out then.

Instead of paying heed to price action and taking a more conservative position, they ignored warnings of impending correction of the price action, dismissed its potential severity and unfortunately succumbed to their greed and ego by buying more as price retraced along the way down. Their anchored views were emboldened by their huge ego as they bought on the way down much to their detriment.

If there is any lessons to be learned its is as follows
- never be too sure of your views as this is a tremendous weakness especially in stock investment
- be nimble footed and never ever average down
- its safer to buy on the way up than buy on the way down

Despite the recent severe sustained correction down, Heng Yuan is still an uptrending stock as the recent low of 6.02 was a higher low relative to its lowest low of 1.99. The high was 19.20.

Because HY is uptrending, HY will rechallenge its old high of 19.20 given time.

Weak hands had been completely flushed out by the sustained downward momentum over recent weeks.HY share price had dropped from high of 19.20 to low of 6.02, a whopping -68.6 retracement. This is classic flush down.

The recent downtrend was extremely severe and nerve wrenching to the faithfuls. It tested HY faithfuls to the core of their beliefs on HY stock fundamentals. Some faithfuls had capitulated under extreme emotional duress.Those who had held on will be rewarded for their faith in HY fundamentals.

Strong hands are holding HY share now. Ride your profits UP.

HY is now on strong trend up momentum. Will go re-challenge old high of 19.20

HY share price had reversed strongly signalling that the short term downtrend is over. SMART money have zoomed in and bought up the low priced HY shares especially over the past few days.

Notwithstanding the above, the recent sustained selldown had impacted negatively on some of the forumers here. Some had sustained big paper losses or already realized the losses. Others had missed out on realizing good profits had they sold off much earlier. Some forumers especially the fundamentalists who had been super positive on HY fundamentals had held onto their HY shares until the last moment but unfortunately succumbed to their emotional fears that it will go down much more and finally capitulated under the sustained selldown. Unfortunately they capitulated to their emotions(understandably so due to the sustained selldown) and in so doing had threw out their fundamental views on HY which one must admit has a lot of credence.

Most of the forumers here are experiencing cognitive dissonance as they still hold onto the representative bias that HY share will continue to go down. This will only work towards delaying their participation and when they do participate finally, HY share price will be at much higher level.

The selldown of HY over recent weeks had depressed its share price to such a low level that it had enticed smart money to zoom in and buy it up. HY share price had since rebounded off its low of 6.02 which is in the vicinity of its lower support zone at 6.0.

The recent sustained corrective short term downtrend for HY is OVER.

The chart psychology for HY now is very bullish.
08/04/2018 17:27

Price action is the most important info to follow

HY ended with a bullish harami yesterday

Bullish harami is an indication that the sustained strong retracement down is going to be over

Today HY showed a very strong reversal up and this confirmed that the strong retracement down is over.

BULLISH FORCES HAVE KILLED THE BEARS

Fundamentals of HY is still intact. Mkt is indicating that HY fundamentals will be strong going forward despite the planned shutdown plus paying taxes.

The extreme bearish sentiments over recent weeks had shaken out all the weak holders. Now strong hands hold HY.

Strong hands had taken over. Strong hands will take price to higher levels

Sendai is still a strong uptrending stock despite the prolonged price correction. It has just recently made a strong reversal up. This augurs well for further continuation of its uptrend move.

Based on Elliott wave retracement,it just completed its wave 2 correction n is now embarking on its wave 3 up. Wave 3 is normally the strongest wave.

There is a high chance that Sendai will breach its old high.

I am looking at a minimum upside of 1.66. If Sendai can deliver super EPS, it may go much higher than 1.66

The private placement with Macquarie was not perceived positively by investors in general. The termination of the PP with Macquarie was the right decision to take as it stops further price erosion.

What is likely to happen next?

Its up to Sendai now to give confidence to investors at large that it can indeed deliver increasing EPS consistently.

The Market will rerate Sendai price upward if Sendai continues to deliver increasing EPS.

Bulls came in during the afternoon session n overpowered the bears. HY ended with strong reversal up. Good positive momentum up after a lengthy short term correction since it hit its high of 19.20

Mkt now look forward to upcoming QR due in May. Will upcoming QR be lower, same or better than prev QR.

If HY price action sustains its price up, it maybe discounting improving fundamentals.

SAPRNG will prove its naysayers wrong
It will continue to go higher and higher but very few believe it can do so

SAPRNG is now a strong uptrending cyclical stock.

It hit a V bottom. Now it is doing a V up.

Share price discounts the future fundamentals. Price action is indicating that the future fundamentals is getting better.

Despite the selldown in index stocks, SAPRNG bucked the down trend and finished higher.

Its share price is indicating that its fundamentals is getting better

This is a strong uptrending cyclical momentum stock.

Based on SAPRNG price action, upcoming QR will be better than previous QR.

It will be a V bottom UP for SAPRNG. Almost everyone is expecting upcoming QR due in April to be bad but I do not concur. The spirited upsurge in its market price since it bottomed out @0.395 is disproving the naysayers.

This is a high momentum stock on its way UP. Downtrend for SAPRNG is already OVER.

Selling pressure has waned, Price volatility has reduced n trading range has narrowed. These r indicators of a bottoming for HY

Crude oil seems to be reversing direction to UP now. If crude oil ends at 2018 high or slightly above 2018 high, I will expect Q1 2018 result to match or slightly better Q4 2017 result. We still have another 11 days before March ends.

Based on HY price action, it appears that:
- The strong hands that bought at higher prices r holding onto HY
- The old support at 8.24 was tested twice but price bounced off 8.24.
- Price did not test 8.24 today despite the drop in Dow Jones last night
- Stochastics indicate high oversold status for HY


Selling pressure is waning, volatility has decreased n this is indicative of a bottoming for HY. It is also an indication that the shares sold over the past few weeks had flowed from weak hands into strong hands.

Very good price consolidation at upper end of the long white marubozu indicate that bulls r in control.

It is trading at a respectable n reasonably undervalued PE at current price of 52 cts. 

Market will rerate Evergreen upward as its EPS n future cashflows continue to improve 

Improving positive future cashflows will enable the company to pare down its debts which was incurred to stregthen n empower the company's future earning capacity

Looks like Evergreen is bottoming after a lengthy sell down.

Most of the Capex had already been utilised. Going forward there wont be huge Capex that will impact on its future cashflows.

So starting FY 2018, I expect Evergreen to generate good increasing positive cashflows as the investments made will position the company to earn higher gross margins/higher profits.

The Risk Reward now favours a Risk On bet on Evergreen's improving future financial performance.

There r 2 types of investors as I see it 

The emotional types vs the rational types 

The emotional types still cling on to high valuation which was not supported by new reality of inconsistent increase in earnings n instead of taking profit or cutting out with small losses..they have loss aversion n decided to hold onto the shares which unfortunately kept on dropping n now have huge paper losses. Because they r anchored to their beliefs, some even average down n now have even bigger absolute paper losses 

The rational types n some may have bought at higher prices have tight stop losses n they act based on their decision derived from their understanding of market dynamics of change in oil prices n reduced Q4 2017 earnings situation. They are not anchored to purchase price or target prices. They act based on risk management techniques using tight stop losses. These rational types will not average down but rather wait for price to bottom n start to buy when price begin to trend up. 

After the market price has finally bottomed n start to turn up..there will be two responses 

- the emotional types will.likely still perceive they it will go down lower 
- the rational types will start to buy n buy on the way up

The Market will let you know when it has bottomed.

Crude oil price may go lower in 2018 as new oil supplies come onstream.
So it is reasonable to expect to see more inventory loss from refineries in the future quarters including HY. 

Do expect earnings for HY in 2018 to go down further. The bubble price of 19.20 is over. The bubble had burst.

The downward momentum of HY price is in process of discounting this.

The market will decide the bottom price for HY.

Diesel cars can be banned from German cities, court rules

Markus Wacket, Ilona Wissenbach

6 MIN READ

LEIPZIG/FRANKFURT, Germany (Reuters) - German cities can ban the most heavily polluting diesel cars from their streets, a court ruled on Tuesday, a move that could accelerate a shift away from the combustion engine and force manufacturers to pay to improve exhaust systems.

The court said Stuttgart, which styles itself the birthplace of the modern automobile and is home to Mercedes-maker Daimler, should consider gradually imposing a year-round ban for older diesel models, while Duesseldorf should also think about curbs.

Many other German cities exceed European Union limits on nitrogen oxide (NOx), known to cause respiratory disease. After the ruling, the northern city of Hamburg said it would start to implement limits on diesel vehicles from the end of April.

There has been a global backlash against diesel-engine cars since leading German carmaker Volkswagen admitted in 2015 to cheating U.S. exhaust tests. The scandal has spread across the industry and boosted investment in electric vehicles.

Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens have said they plan to ban diesel vehicles from city centers by 2025, while the mayor of Copenhagen wants to ban new diesel cars from entering the city as soon as next year. France and Britain will ban new petrol and diesel cars by 2040.

German Transport Minister Doesn't Rule Out Diesel Cars Ban Possibility - Reports

20:59 16.03.2018(updated 21:09 16.03.2018)

BERLIN (Sputnik) - The possibility of imposing bans on diesel-fueled cars in Germany cannot be excluded, German Transport and Digital Infrastructure Minister Andreas Scheuer said.

In his interview with the Bild newspaper, German Transport and Digital Infrastructure Minister Andreas Scheuer stated he would do everything in his power to prevent bans on diesel cars, however, noting that it would be "dishonest" to exclude such possibility.

Supply of crude oil is likely to rise in the next 1 to 2 years.

There are 2 drivers of oil supply
- New supplues from US, Brazil, Canada,Norway plus Iran, Iraq n Kuwait have invested in new production capacity n r eager to reap the benefits of their investments
- OPEC will struggle to maintain discipline

Rapid development of renewable energy posing a long term challenge to oil. Those with massive reserves is likely to aggressively exploit oil reserves before they potentially lose value in long term

Deep divisions within OPEC members will undermine discipline.

Demand for oil will grow but more slowly than before

Market will decide on the botton price for HY. Earnings of HY in 2018 is expected to be much lower than 2017 earnings.

1H 2018 earnings expected to be more than 2H2018 earnings BUT 2018 earnings is expected to be much lower than 2017 earnings

So going forward, HY earnings is expected to drop further. With lower earnings, the market will rate HY price lower.

How mych lower? Rather than speculate, it makes prudent sense to let the market decide

HY had already tested its old low of 8.24 twice recently. The renewed down trend has just resumed for HY after the brief weak rebound ended today.

Should price resume its downward momentum next week and retest old low at 8.24, there is a good chance that the support at 8.24(tested 2X already) will be broken downward.

Good chance upcoming QR may not be better than Q4 2017 which was lower than Q3 2017. Crude oil price had regressed abt -10% since Jan 2018 and this will result in losses in inventory for Q1 2018 result. Lower crack spread is also negative on upcoming result.

There was alot of "noise" that affect the trend recently. The fact is HY price is below 200 MA and this is bearish.

If higher discount rate is imputed, the intrinsic value of HY will be much lower.

So the intrinsic value is lower with 10% discount rate.
So HY intrinsic value will be much lower than the author's derived figure.