Kam sia Jtiasa.

Jtiasa sells CPO to Tiong's company for refinery process. I am not sure if the selling price CPO would be able to catch-up with the surge prices as reported by MPOB. According to my records, there was a big gap of selling prices between Jtiasa and MPOB from CY-3rd Qtr21 to CY- 2nd Qtr22.

You would have a clearer picture of the production costs after digging more information from SOP, TAAN & SwakPlnt.

Jtiasa's FFB monthly production is the most volatile in the upstream industry. It keeps haunting the investors during the low season but good news to seasonal players. In addition, market would offer lower valuation due to high production costs.

No wonder Jtiasa's price momentum was so strong in the last 2 weeks. Finally, he is on the boat and we had un... hahaha

Double top?

Alamak! Montly FFB is announced early and below expectation.

Target EPS 120 cents and 90% dividend payout or dividend yield 7% on the back of high net cash in its piggy bank.

Getting more thirsty after drinking ajinomoto soup.

Forex against USD back to square after Trump in power.

CPO price is volatile and good to traders.

Share price is mainly drived by CPO prices.

Bad chi! Bad chi! Guys have foregoten our Chinese idiom 'Harmony brings wealth'

Jtiasa has reported net profit RM 141 millon with the average price of CPO RM 3,800 /mt for FY 2024. Net profit would surge by 50% if the average price CPO increase to RM 4,300 /mt for FY 2025.

The average price of CPO prices won't be exceeding RM 4600 per ton for 2025. Be realistic.

Sell your tickets. Jaya Turtle won't let you make fast money.

Indonesia smallholders replanting will be delayed as high CPO prices deter the subsidize program initiated by the government. The smallholders hold tight on the 2.5 million hectare of old trees above 25 years due for replanting.

Good volume to maintain the upward momentum. Turtle pace is OK.

Thread already attract bad chi. Temporary setback.

See how long you can stand with Jaya Turtle here.

This is a Jaya Turtle heading north. Good sentiments to support CPO price until next year.

Jaya Tiasa should have changed the name to Jaya Turtle. Lol

Local fund has joined the recovery game. Manulife Investment invested 32 million shares in Jtiasa in last 12 months.

Indonesia government has a plan B50. Hope to implement in 2026.

https://en.antaranews.com/news/330977/need-20-mln-kiloliters-of-cpo-per-year-for-b50-says-govt

Indonesia government expected CPO production for year 2024 to drop 5% or to 51 million tonnes after badly hit by El Nino.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731120

扛精的逻辑
https://youtu.be/7y1WjCW-WZQ?si=zbrhi_J4fZiTkMa-

No surprise if Indonesia government announce to implement B45 and B50 in 2026 & 2027 respectively as long as incentive is available for replacing imported fossil diesel.

Extracted :
The new tests come after the government announced plans to replace all of its fossil diesel imports with locally produced biodiesel as it aims to cut $20 billion off the country’s fuel bill and support production of domestically produced goods.


https://www.astra-agro.co.id/en/2024/05/22/indonesia-starts-test-trial-of-b40-blends-in-generators-and-trucks/

Factors pushing CPO price heading north:
1. Indonesia's CPO production dropping due to El Nino
2. China massive stimulus package would spur higher inflation in food segment and induce stocking activities.
3. Indonesia will implement B40 in 2025.

Indonesia CPO production could drop another 3% next year due to El Nino. B40 and local consumption would make another 2 million ton or (3.8% production) reduction in CPO supply to the market.

Don't tell the LHDN that net margin is unable to return back to at least 9% while sales increasing and RM stengthen to 4.16. LHDM won't suspect of unfair transfer pricing in intercompanies purchases and it is bad to branding.

CPO price shot up to RM 4.2k/ton is mainly due to shock reduction of CPO production announced by Gapki on 25 Sep 24.

https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/indonesian-palm-oil-exports-to-fall-by-2m-tonnes

Big impact of El Nino for CPO production is materialized in Indonesia. CPO production started suffering a double digits reduction from May 2024 in comparison to the respective month data in last year.


Jul 2024 - ( -17.0% )
Jun 2024 - ( - 8.5 % )
May 2024 - ( -16.3%)

Indonesia is expected to export 28.5 million ton of CPO in 2024 or dropped 2 million ton as CPO production sliding due to oil palm tress stress and increasing old mature tress plus increasing local consumption in food and biodiesel.

Indonesia CPO stock level dropped to 2.51 million ton in Jul 2024 or the level in Mar 2019. With the implementation of B40 in Jan 2025 plus increasing local food consumption, CPO export is expected to fall another 2 million ton or back to the 26.4 million ton in 2015.

Indonesia was encountered CPO production dropping more than 10% in the recent months.

https://gapki.id/news/2024/09/25/produksi-turun-stok-kembali-turun/

Sell Jtiasa because Genine want to sell, everyone wants to sell, CPO price drop back to RM 2.5k/ ton, labor shortage, management problem, the land are leased hold...how many more negative reasons for getting rid of Jtiasa shares?

Who is applying ludicrous logic for interpretation? hahha

Not Ok. I want 9999999 years. kikiki

Second interim dividend 3.5 cents is far above my expectation. Thought the company would have proposed 2 cents /share.

Posted by Save > Aug 30, 2024 6:39 PM | Report Abuse

Any mentioned of loss in logging business in this QR?

It could mis-reclassification between Log segment and Other segment. Save for the impacts of impairments/disposal PPE and FV Biological assets, Other segment shows operating profit 20.5m whereas Log segment reported an operating losses RM 19.7m for 4th Qtr 24.

The company will be fully repaid the borrowing in the next 4 quarter by referring to the trend of the payment plans RM 50m per quarter. Expect a savings in interest expenses RM 18m per year.

Operating Profit for Oil Palm segment is slightly below my expectation after excluding the effects of impairments/disposal PPE and FV Biological assets.

Adjusted Operating Oil Palm:
4th Qtr 24 - 39.5m
3rd Qtr 24 - 31.4m
2nd Qtr 24 - 106.1m
1st Qtr 24 - 109.9m
4th Qtr 23 - 41.7m

Dividend payout over PAT has increased to 41% or double of the last 2 years.

Dividend payout:

FY 2024 - 41% (6 cents / share )
FY 2023 - 20% (3.2 cents / share )
FY 2022 - 20% (2.8 cents / share )

Net profit margin would be gradually recovered to the industry norm 10% from 6% existing level. It won't drag for long time since LHDN is keeping an eye on the transfer pricing policies. Haha

Indonesia to implement B40 palm oil biodiesel on Jan 1, 2025, official says

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/08/22/indonesia-to-implement-b40-palm-oil-biodiesel-on-jan-1-2025-official-says

In average, 40% (Intercompany purchases/Revenue) of the materials is purchased from overseas (monther company) in Holand.

One off costs for relocation and dismentling of old factory is expected to incur for 3rd Qtr 24 Qtr and 4th Qtr 24. Better earnings due to RM strengthing against US will be reflected in 4th Qtr 24 for offseting final one off costs.

Read carefully in Note 12 first. kikiki

Market plays yo-yo games until many short term players run for life. Haha

USD against RM dropped to 4.38 today. Expect gross margin would be much better in 4th Quarter QR.