Koon Yew Yin's Blog
How pertinent is KYY golden rule? Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Wed, 16 Dec 2020, 09:38 AM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
As you know, I posted several articles pointing out Supermax’ 1st quarter ending Sept. EPS 30.58 sen and its profit for the next few should be much better due to the shortage of glove supply during the current Covid 19 pandemic. But its price chart is showing down trend. I did not believe it and I continue to buy with all my money to fight against the down trend price chart in vain.
I learned an expensive lesson because I did not believe in its down trend price chart. I was shocked to see that it plunged 80 sen on Monday.
Top Glove’s quarter ending November EPS 29.64 sen and its previous quarter was 5.32 sen, an increase of 5.7 times. Its price chart is also showing down trend.
Based on Top Glove’s performance, Supermax’s next quarter ending December EPS should be another record high. To be safe and conservative, if I assume its profit is 2 times and not as good as Top Glove’s 5.72 times, its 2nd quarter should be 61.2 sen, totalling 92 sen for half year. Again if I assume that its profit for each of the next 2 quarters remains the same as 61.2 sen, its annual EPS will be Rm 2.14.
Based on PE 15, my target price is Rm 30. Based on PE 10, my target price is Rm 21 which is easily achievable.
Yet its price chart is showing down trend.
Recently I have studied some of the stocks recommended by my friends namely, Cypark, Slvest, Samaiden, WCE, CSCstel, Carimin, Engtex, Petron, etc etc.
All these stocks have up trending price charts and also reported increased profit for their recent quarter. But the current Covid 19 pandemic will most likely affect their profit for their next quarter.
It is safer to buy any stock if it can report increasing profit for at least 2 quarters.
KYY golden rule
The stock must have reported increasing profit for 2 quarters and it is selling at projected PE below 15.
Besides Technical and Financial analysis, my golden rule is required.
What to expect?
Recently JP Morgan and Macquarie Bank have downgraded glove stocks so that they can buy them at cheaper prices. As a result, Supermax plunged 80 sen on Monday.
It rebounded 3 sen yesterday. If it continues to go up in the next few days, I will buy Supermax aggressively. I am very confident that Supermax share price will shoot through the roof in Mid- January when it announces its 2nd quarter profit.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 23 of 23 comments
These are the pertinent points
1. Topglove is the biggest . All embracing
2. Supermax is fastest in sales
capturing market value
3. Harta make use of all it has to maximize value
4. Kossan goes for quality and consistency
The slowest among all
But the last comes first
So Calvin picks Kossan
2020-12-16 09:54
THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR U TO SELL YOUR GLOVES & SWITCH TO INSAS BEFORE TOO LATE LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > Dec 16, 2020 10:54 AM | Report Abuse X
SHARP ADVANCEMENT IN INSAS SHARE PRICE COMING LOH...!!
Raider says let be practical mah...!!
If OCBC mark to market losses at SGD 8.42 as at 30-9-2020, now as at 16 December 2020 SGD 10.19, there will be a big write back of a few million back to the profit coming 31-12 2020 mah...!!
In other words Raider see a potential write back of more than rm 30m in the 2nd qtr 31-12-2020, that will basically improve the investment division profit mah...!!
This together with sengenic disposal, Insas will report more than Rm 70 million profit in December qtr loh....!!
Very sharep improvement in insas share price coming loh...!!
Sslee The investment holding & trading segment suffered a pre-tax loss of RM49.2 million due to unrealised mark to market losses of financial assets at fair value through profit or loss and derivative financial instruments (FY 2019: pre-tax profit of RM1.5 million)
Singapore OCBC price: 28/6/2019 Sing dollar 11.40
30/6/2020: Sing dollar 9.00
30/9/2020: Sing dollar 8.42
Now Sing dollar 10+. On 31/12/2020 with window dressing most likely will be close to 11.
2020-12-16 11:04
THIS IS AN EARLY INDICATION OF FUTURE IN ESCAPEABLE BAD TIME IS COMING FOR GLOVES LOH....!!
JP Morgan analysts believed that “the extraordinary phase of the industry cycle is over” and that the glove manufacturers’ increase in production capacity, which will reach nearly 90% in the next three to five years, will be reflected in the hiccups
– Of course, the increase in production capacity in the world is a fact and we are working on it ourselves. However, it is difficult to say when falling demand will overlap with growing supply. It is estimated that this will happen in mid-2022. However, we believe that we will be immune to this as we will mainly be making specialty gloves that are subject to slightly different rules. We will of course be able to produce mainstream gloves if it pays off – says Wiesław Żyznowski.
2020-12-16 11:11
Uncle, if you believe so much in Smax potential, this selldown is a great opportunity for you to load up more, the trade of year for you, can relax next year .
Please buy some more, huat ahhhh.....
2020-12-16 13:21
NP margin before covod-19 less than 10%.
So post covid what will be the NP margin?
2020-12-16 15:28
Supermx
Ann date: Quarter: Revenue: PDT; NP; NP to SH: NP margin
27-Oct-2020 30-Sep-2020 1,352,537 1,049,242 812,485 789,516 60.07%
10-Aug-2020 30-Jun-2020 929,124 519,007 408,270 399,618 43.94%
20-May-2020 31-Mar-2020 447,247 95,277 72,349 71,056 16.18%
25-Feb-2020 31-Dec-2019 385,497 41,829 30,022 30,165 7.79%
So next quarter NP margin 60-100%????
2020-12-16 15:51
Supermax won’t be the same post covid era. ASP may normalised, but I can guarantee it won’t go back to pre-covid era, share price won’t go back to pre-covid era neither.
By then they would’ve accumulated enough cash earnings to:
1.) diversify into other healthcare businesses.
2.) further expand their plants and equipments both locally and in UK.
3.) automate their glove manufacturing to compensate normalisation of ASP.
4.) earned the reputation to transform the now new customers into regular customers (new recurring earnings).
5.) higher dividend to distribute to shareholders.
6.) massive structural shift in the demand and usage of gloves post covid.
7.) Covid will be around for a long time despite the rollout of vaccines.
Supermax - A super stock worth accumulating.
2020-12-16 17:54
The great sifu KYY.Please I agree the chart must have upward or hooking up then buy especially weekly chart.Daily usually will impact less but weekly impact the most.Stoch RSI weekly hooking up 2 consecutive weeks look safe(5-10 trading days) after major down trend or medium.Experience will taught one self.
2020-12-16 18:18
Forget all TA and FA, KYY should have held on Supermax since 2009. Position would be worth north of RM500 M today.
2020-12-16 23:22
Talking rubbish , first said put ALL his money to buy and shock to see it plunged 80 sen on Monday. Follow by if it will go up next few days then he WILL buy aggressively ???
If he already put ALL his money in Supermax , how he is going to buy aggressively again unless borrow from bank . He will only buy IF Supermax go up for few days , that mean above rm8 !!!!!!
This more look like ask you guys to buys once above 8 so he can take sell !!!!!!!!!!!
2020-12-17 00:07
Stockraider, insas cannot fight with glove. They offer 0.2sen dividend only. No fight.
2020-12-17 19:22
Buy when the trend is up,weekly and monthly.Experience will tell especially hooking up (weekly).How there play it depend in experience.
SS Lee please bought some HSBC Hong Kong listing hkd 41-hkd 42.
2020-12-17 20:07
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2020-12-16 09:51