南洋行家论股
【行家论股】源宗集团 开启超级盈利周期
分析：兴业投行
目标价：4.70令吉
最新进展：
源宗集团（GCB，5102，主板消费股）可可产品赚幅大涨，在2024财政年首季（截至3月底）净赚9204万令吉，按年飙涨2.87倍至历史新高。
同时，其首季营收在可可产品销量和售价双双走强的推动下，按年大起69.63%至18亿7016万令吉。
（取自源宗集团官网）
行家建议：
源宗集团在首季交出爆炸性的业绩表现，核心净利占了我们全年预测的36%，超越预期。
其除息税摊销折旧前盈利（EBITDA）赚幅在首季暴增，从去年同期的每吨789令吉，起至每吨2000令吉，得益于可可平均售价上涨，以及该公司的有力对冲位置。
不止这样，源宗集团的出色表现，还伴随着下半年业绩将显著更强劲的预期，原因是有更多预售产品的收入还未被认列。
我们相信，源宗集团的超级盈利上涨周期，才刚刚开始，因为该集团如今已获得更强的赚幅和议价能力。
接下来，全球可可行业应该会继续成为卖方市场，至少延续到今年10月的下一轮主要采收季节前。目前可可供应量紧张，而在我们看来，当前可可的市场需求可以持续下去。
随着强劲业绩出炉，我们将其2024至2025财年盈利预期，上调42.5%至37.5%，目标价因而从此前的3.30令吉，上修至4.70令吉。该股评级维持在“买入”。
https://www.enanyang.my/行家论股/【行家论股】源宗集团-开启超级盈利周期
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