Plantation sector indeed is quite a complicated sector to analyse fundamentally as there are a lot of complicated factors such as rainfall, stock pile, global demand, palm oil tree age yield and import duty & taxes that affecting the palm oil industry. These factors are extremely important to analyse individual plantation counters. Usually I don't do the analysis myself but to rely on a few reputable research houses for their indepth analysis. However, if you want to know the bigger picture such as the palm oil price trend in general, perhaps I can offer some help here based on my technical analysis knowledge.

Firstly, let's take a look at the 30 year palm oil futures price chart to establish a long term view on the palm oil price historically. From the chart we can see that there seemed to be a repetitive behaviour in the palm oil price. Measuring from bottom to bottom, the cycle years are either 3 or 4. If we were to take the last bottom year 2011 as a starting point, the next bottom should be either in 2014 or 2015 (3 or 4 years). However, with the trendline analysis, it is quite obvious that the bottom should be this year as that's where the trend line is.