KUALA LUMPUR: Experts are calling for the Movement Control Order (MCO) to be extended for another six weeks as new Covid-19 cases continue to emerge.

A six-week extension, they said, would be ideal to break the chain of transmission.

Epidemiologist Prof Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud, in making the call, noted that Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus in China, had been on lockdown for 2½ months.

He, however, said Malaysia could opt for a two-week extension from April 15 and review the situation at the end of the period to see whether another 14 days were required.

“This could be done on a two-week basis. We should consider lifting the MCO only when the number of new cases has peaked and dropped consistently over a period of two weeks,” he told the New Straits Times.

Dr Awang Bulgiba also said it was difficult to say when the cases would peak and replateau.

“We also can’t say whether new clusters that are announced will be sufficiently contained by mid-April to allow for this (lifting of the MCO).”

He said a lack of data, including pending test results, made it difficult to assess whether Malaysia was in line with the World Health Organisation’s projections. The global body had earlier said the number of Covid-19 cases in the country would peak in mid-April.

Dr Awang Bulgiba said there was no “magic number” with regard to the optimal daily number of new cases before the MCO could be lifted.

“Even if the numbers are brought under control and the MCO is lifted before Hari Raya Aidilfitri, social distancing will be the ‘new normal’ for the next six to 12 months, which means no mass Raya prayers, balik kampung, open houses or visiting relatives.”

He believed it would take between one year and 18 months to achieve zero new cases. This, he said, was possible through vaccination or the population as a whole developing herd immunity.

Dr Malina Osman, an epidemiology and biostatistics expert, concurred that the MCO should be extended by at least four to six weeks.

She said even if the objective of the MCO was achieved by way of slowing the transmission, allowing for proper contact tracing and identification of potential new clusters by the end of the extension, Malaysia may still experience an on-and-off surge in new cases when a new cluster emerges.

Dr Malina, however, said the staggered extension on a bi-weekly basis might be inadequate to weed out asymptomatic carriers.

“Considering our frontliners’ capability in implementing the recommended measures, the decision either to continue or prolong the MCO should be considered wisely.”

She said some countries (Germany, Singapore and South Korea) had implemented automated contact tracing through digital notification to determine compliance and effective screening tests.

“But these measures should go hand in hand with the main preventive measures at the community level such as hand hygiene, social distancing and the use of face masks.

“We also need to take into account our socio-cultural background. We are used to being physically close, so social distancing would be the biggest challenge if the MCO were to be relaxed.”

Dr Malina said the relaxing and tightening of MCO may be applicable based on zone classification.

“However, this zone classification should be determined based on active cases, not cumulative cases, she added.

“Therefore, we can observe whether the situation is improving or declining within that particular zone.”

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/04/582940/experts-six-week-extension-ideal-break-chain-transmission