斤经济较：中国股市跌停板原因何在

2016年第一天，
中国股市就跌停板，
跌停板的意思就是，
为了避免股民因为疯狂而大卖股票，
当跌到一个程度的时候，
会停止交易，
让大家冷静下。
而中国的机制是，
如果一天跌超过5%，
就会停止交易15分钟，
如果继续跌到7%，
就停止交易到明天。

產能擴大‧原料跌價‧森德3年財測上調

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 18 Dec 2015, 06:46 PM 

[转贴] 斤经济较：好股研究（SCIENTX） - 夜月

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Sat, 26 Dec 2015, 08:13 AM 

Friday, 25 December 2015

 

Scientx的行业有两个：

1 Manufacturing（MA）：制造塑料袋

2 Property Development（PD）：建可负担房屋

 

从2016年Q1来看，

有71.2%的Revenue是来自MA，25.7%是来自PD，

但是Profit方面就一半一半。

 

 

先来谈谈Manufacturing（MA）：制造塑料袋。

MA这个行业的profit margin其实不高，

尽管Revenue每年都有增加，

但是Gross Profit Margin一直都维持在10%左右。

（是Gross 哦）

 

MA里面可以继续分成Industrial包装和Consumer包装，

一直以来Industrial都是占2/3，

而Industrial的profit margin 比较低，

最新一季季报显示Consumer的比例开始大幅增加，

已经接近50%的比例。

 

亮点

1 FY16Q1里，Consumer 包装的Revenue增加了44.8%，

主要原因是Scientx于八月初刚收购了SGW Ipoh，

一间专门出产Consumer包装的公司。

 

2 在马六甲的新厂预计于2015年底可以使用，

新厂都是出产Consumer包装。

 

3 在Pulau Indah的工厂于2016年中开始使用，

还有工厂扩建计划也在2016年中完成。

 

接下来再谈谈Property Development（PD）：建可负担房屋

PD方面每年的Revenue也是不断上升，

Gross Profit Margin 达到43%左右，

 

 

亮点

1 FY16Q1的Unbilled Revenue从上一季RM584.9m增加到RM632.2m，

Unbilled Revenue简单来说，

就是屋子已经有人下定了，

但是还没有算进Revenue里面，

未来成交了就会算进Revenue里面。

简单来说，

Unbilled Revenue越高，

未来的Revenue就越有保障。

RM632.2m大概等于一年的Revenue。

 

总结

1 2016年是Scientx扩展Manufacturing业务的一年，当中包括：

2015年8月收购了SGW Ipoh

2015年底建好Melaka的厂

2016年中建好Pulau Indah的厂和厂扩建

 

2 从Unbilled Revenue来看，

未来一年PD的部分就有一笔稳定的收入，

当房地产市道不好时，

大家都会把目光放在可负担房屋。

 

3 Scientx的债务其实不小，

从FY16Q1来看，

短期债务有RM253m，长期债务有RM70m，

现金有RM80m，

FY16Q1 Operating Cash Flow有RM63m，

但是不需要担心，

我一直以来都认为，

赚钱的公司，

是不会还不起债务的。

 

4 Scientx目前的PE是11.6

随着Manufacturing的比重增加，

相信市场会给它更高的PE，

市场对Property Segment的PE给得都比较低。

 

5 收购了SGW Ipoh后，

就算不加入新厂的产能，

下一季的季报net profit至少有RM60m，

比起去年同季的RM36m会增加个65%，

如果加入新厂和PD的增加，

会超过这个数目。

http://moonitez89.blogspot.my/2015/12/scientx.html

Cash flows of Scientex Berhad

The job of every company is to make money, and there is no money like cash. Cash flow from operations (CFFO) is the purest inflow and outflow of cash in relation to actually doing business. From a company health perspective it is one of the most important measures.

Companies require capital expenses in purchasing and upgrading plant and equipment for growth. The money is not gone. It is carried on the balance sheet as an asset. The end goal is for the company to generate a return on the asset. Free cash flow (FCF) is what is left after those expenses.

Free cash flow is like the end all goal of companies. The point is to do so well that you make so much money that even after all the checks written to expand the business you still have a lot of cash. Cash is pretty much the most important thing, and FCF is the most flexible kind of cash there is. With this internally generated FCF, a company can pay out dividend consistently, buy back its shares when they are selling cheap, pare down loans, or invest in other profitable ventures, all done without assuming more debts which makes the business more risky in times of the down turn in economy, or asking more money from shareholders, or issuing more shares to private investors, often at a discount, and hence diluting the earnings per share of the existing shareholders.

There are some companies doing so well that even after heavy expansion they have a lot of cash left over. Scientex Berhad is one of them, and it has been using this FCF to do most of the above.

Scientex Berhad

Scientex Berhad is engaged in two operating segments: property segment, which is in the business of constructing and developing residential and commercial properties, and manufacturing segment, which is mainly in the business of manufacturing various packaging products and manufacturing materials for automotive interior. Included in this segment is also the marketing and sales of laminating polyurethane adhesives. The packaging business unit manufactures various packaging products, which caters for packaging for logistics purposes, general purpose packaging and packaging for bulk handling. The polymer business unit manufactures polyvinyl chloride (PVC) leather cloth, PVC/polypropylene (PP) and PVC/polyethylene (PE) foam and thermoplastic olefin/PP foam sheets for automotive instrument panels, door trims and headlining for car manufacturers in the Asia Pacific region.

I have written a couple of investment thesis on Scientex since 14 months ago when its share price was at RM5.74 apiece as shown in the link below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/56316.jsp

Subsequently I wrote another article updating the valuation of Scientex as shown in the link here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/60563.jsp

Scientex just announced unaudited earnings results for the year ended July 31, 2015. Revenue for the year improved by 13.3% to RM1.8b and operating income jumped by 18.6% to RM225m. Earnings per share, EPS was 70 sen, against 67 sen a year ago. Net cash from operating activities was RM190m, against RM154m a year ago.

At the close of RM7.40 today, the PE ratio is 10.5; not that cheap compared to its historical PE ratio, and an enterprise value of 8.7 times its operating income. However, it is slowly transforming itself to a big regional PVC/polypropylene and PVC/polyethylene business. The attractiveness of investing in Scientex actually lies in its cash flow.

Cash flows of Scientex

For the latest annual financial results ended July 31^st 2015, net income is RM162m while its cash flows from operations (CFFO) is 17% more at RM190m. This signifies the good quality of its earnings. It spent a considerable amount of money in capital expenses of RM116m, and yet there is still abundant free cash flow, FCF of RM74m left. This is 4.1% of revenue and 6.3% of invested capital (IC), in hard cash. It is from this FCF that RM47m was paid out as dividends, and partly paid down its debts.

Figure 1 below shows that the growth of net profit of Scientex at a compounded annual growth rate, CAGR of 30% for the last 12 years.

There is not a single year when it made losses. CFFO grows at tandem and it has been consistently above the CFFO, showing a high quality earnings.

Scientex does use considerable amount of debt of a total of RM254m. However this debt is only 0.24 times its total equity, and its CFFO covers a whopping 23 times its interest payment. Scientex has done a good job utilizing other people’s money to yield a high return on equity of 19%.

Not only CFFO is positive every year, its FCF is also positive every year without fail, except for a single year in 2004 when it spent a relative high capital expenses as shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Cash flows of Scientex

Over the last 13 years, it has produced a total FCF of RM689m which it used to invest in profitable investments and paying dividends to shareholders, invest in profitable comanies, and not from your own money (right issues), continued borrowing from banks, or by giving a piece of the business from other private investors (private placement).

Conclusions

Scientex has high revenue and profit growth for the last 12 years. Despite the very high growth, It still have positive and reasonable good FCF every year. It even earns more cash than its accounting profit every year. After spending huge amount of capital expenses and acquiring other companies in the same business, and as a result, it earns more profit and hard cash.

Scientex appears to be the kind of company investors should look out for investing for the long term; A regional and world market leader, high return on capitals, a cash cow, but trading at reasonable price, or may be even cheap price.

kcchongnz | 06 Oct 2015

30 Sep 2015

Scientex - A Potentially Cheap Acquisition

Date: 06/08/2015

Source	:	RHB-OSK
Stock	:	SCIENTX		Price Target	:	8.80	|	Price Call	:	BUY
				Last Price	:	7.50	|	Upside/Downside	:	+1.30 (17.33%)

Scientex has proposed to acquire a consumer packaging player, MISB,from Mondi for MYR58m. Maintain BUY, with a higher SOP-based TP ofMYR8.80 (20.5% upside) while we roll over our valuation period to 2016 from FY16 (Jul). We are neutral on the minimally earnings-accretive acquisition, which could prove to be potentially cheap. We also retainour earnings forecast pending more details due in September.

Proposed acquisition. Scientex has proposed to acquire a 100% equity stake in Mondi Ipoh SB (MISB) from Mondi Consumer Packaging International (Mondi). The purchase consideration is MYR58m, funded by cash from internally-generated funds. MISB is slated to boost Scientex’s consumer packaging production capacity by about 30% to 76,800 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes. The acquisition is targeted to be completed by 11 Aug 2015. We believe funding should not be an issue as: i) net of the acquisition as of 3Q15, Scientex would have a remainingMYR5m cash position with a net gearing level of 0.33x, and ii) it also has a healthy FY15F net cash generation of MYR56m.

Neutral impact, potentially cheap. An acquisition P/E of 20.4x based on FY14 earnings appears to be on the high side, if we take into accountthe fact that its peers are trading at 18.6x (Scientex itself is trading at 10.5x). Meanwhile, MISB’s FY14 earnings of MYR2.8m would have aminimal accretive impact of ~2% to Scientex’s 2015F earnings. On the operational front, MISB’s FY14 net profit margins are also at a razor-thin2%. However, these factors combined may be moot, if synergistic benefits are realised. Based on our valuation sensitivity analysis, improving margins to 5% from its current ~2% could see the acquisition valued at a forward P/E of 8.2x.

Maintain BUY with a higher TP. We make no changes to our earnings forecasts pending more details from management, which are due in September at its FY15 analyst briefing. We maintain our BUYrecommendation, and take this opportunity to roll over our valuation period to 2016 from FY16, with a revised SOP-based TP of MYR8.80 (from MYR7.90) at an implied P/E of 9.5x 2016.

23 Mac 2015

Date: 18/12/2014 

Source	:	RHB-OSK
Stock	:	SCIENTX		Price Target	:	8.64	|	Price Call	:	BUY
				Last Price	:	7.10	|	Upside/Downside	:	+1.54 (21.69%)

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Scientex’s  1QFY15  (Jul)  core  earnings  of  MYR35.5m  met  our expectations.   Maintain  BUY,  with  our  SOP-based  TP  unchanged  at MYR8.64  (26.3%  upside).  We  continue  to like  the  stock for:  i)  its  long-term  earnings  prospects  leveraging  on  its  expansion  strategy  to quadruple its consumer packaging capacity by 2017, ii) relatively sturdy balance sheet, and iii) committed management team.  

Largely in line. 1QFY15 revenue closed at MYR431.1m (+18.2% YoY), driven  by  both its  packaging  arm  (+10.8%  YoY)  as  well  as its  property development  segment  (+46.5%  YoY).  EBIT,  meanwhile,  grew  by  a smaller  15.5%  YoY  to  MYR44.9m  due  to:  i)  higher  depreciation  in tandem  with  its  capacity  expansion,  and  ii)  revised  pricing  under  its packaging  arm  to  increase  market  penetration  to  fully  utilise  its  new capacity. All in,  1QFY15 core earnings of MYR35.5m came in at 19.7% and  19.9%  of  consensus  and  our  full-year  estimates  respectively.  We deem this in line with our expectations, as 2H is seasonally stronger.  

Sturdy balance sheet. Recall that Scientex has proposed to invest over MYR240m  in  capex  over  the  next  two  years  to  quadruple  production capacity  under  its  consumer  packaging  segment  to  120,000  tonnes come 2017 from 54,000 tonnes currently. We continue to believe funding should  not  be  an  issue,  given:  i)  its  relatively  manageable  net  gearing level  of  0.34x  currently,  ii)  operating  cash  flow  of  over  MYR200m  per year,  and  iii)  an  additional  MYR40m  cash  inflow  from  FutChem’s subscription of 5% stake in its consumer packaging arm.

Forecasts  and risks.  With  the  results coming  largely in line,  we  make no  changes  to  our  FY15F-17F  forecasts.  Key  risks  include  a  potential slowdown  in  property  sales  amidst  rising  costs  of  living  and  potential fluctuations in the prices of resin, which is its core production input.

Maintain  BUY.  Scientex’s share price has retraced by over 11%,  in tandem  with  the  recent  market  selldown. We  see  this  as  an  appealing opportunity for investors to accumulate, as we continue to like the stock for:  i)  its  long-term  earnings  prospects  leveraging  on  its  expansion strategy  to  quadruple  its  consumer  packaging  capacity  by  2017,  ii) relatively  sturdy  balance  sheet,  and  iii)  committed  management  team.  Maintain BUY with our SOP-based TP unchanged at MYR8.64.

 

 

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