LPI Capital - Another Round of Disposal of PBBANK Shares |
Source | : | KENANGA | ||||||||
Stock | : | LPI | Price Target | : | 13.35 | | | Price Call | : | HOLD | |
Last Price | : | 16.10 | | | Upside/Downside | : | -2.75 (17.08%) | ||||
Last Tuesday, LPI announced the disposal of another 2.5m PBBANK shares (0.06% of PBBANK issued shares ex. treasury shares) leaving its PBBANK shareholding at 1.35%.
This represents the 5th sale of PBBANK shares (first being in 4Q14). So far for FY15, LPI have disposed off 5m PBBANK ordinary shares with a total gain of RM70.5m.
According to the announcement, this disposal will result in FY15 EPS higher by 11.2 sen from the approximate RM37.1m gain. The gain, however, is non-recurring and would not impact core FY15 EPS.
The announcement also stated that the rationale for the disposal is to realise tax-exempt capital gains and to support business growth. The sale proceeds will be used to pay cash dividend to LPI's shareholders in first quarter of 2016 and the balance will be placed into fixed deposit to generate interest income.
The move appears rational on the back of the less exciting prospects of the insurance sector where the challenging economy will dampen the growth of insurance industry moving forward. Industry growth is expected to grow between 3-4% for 2015 as forecasted by the General Insurance Association of Malaysia.
Having said that, FY15 net profit will register growth albeit lower at 7.2% (we had forecasted a negative growth for FY15 previously) considering the high FY14 base following the larger sale of PBBANK shares in 4Q14 which provided a higher gain of RM59.9m.
As the disposal will not adversely impact its core earnings, there is no change in our core FY15/16E net profits growth which we maintained at +4.4/+4.7 for FY15/16E.
The disposal will likely result in LPI maintaining its FY15 DPS of 75.0 sen per share (FY14: 75 sen/share). We had assumed it to be at 60.0 sen/share previously. We thus raised our forecast DPS for FY15/16E to 75.0 sen implying a dividend payout of 82%. FY14 dividend payout was at 58% but this is due to the lower number of ordinary shares at 220.5m before the Bonus Issue of 110.7m. For FY16, we maintained DPS of 60.0 sen/share (implying dividend payout of 81%) as subdued earnings will restrict dividends declared.
No change in our core earnings estimates as any potential incremental income from the disposal is expected to be minimal.
Upgrade to MARKET PERFORM
While LPI is still proving resilient amidst a challenging economic environment, growth is expected to be subdued moving forward.
However, given that LPI consistently strives to boost earnings by capital gains, we do not discount further disposal of PBBANK shares to enhance dividends for FY16.
Target price unchanged at RM13.35, based on a blended FY16E price-book (PB)/price-earning (PE) ratio of 2.4/19.1x (previously it was FY16E PB/PE ratio of 2.5/21.2x. The lower valuation is reflective of the lower ROE going forward.
Lower premium underwritten, hence growth.
Higher-than-expected combined ratio as well as effective tax rate.
Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Dec 2015
Date: 09/10/2014
Source | : | RHB | ||||||||
Stock | : | LPI | Price Target | : | 20.70 | | | Price Call | : | BUY | |
Last Price | : | 18.02 | | | Upside/Downside | : | +2.68 (14.87%) | ||||
LPI’s MYR166m 9M14 profit, at 75% of our/consensus estimates, is in line. Despite soft topline growth, the 11% bottomline increase was aided by a 210bps improvement in underwriting (UW) margin and expansion of its profitable fire insurance unit. Maintain BUY, and a MYR20.70 TP(18x P/E, 18.4% upside). We expect in 4Q14 an interim dividend/share similar to 4Q13’s MYR0.52 to help fulfil our assumption of a >5% yield.
9M14 performance in line. LPI Capital (LPI)’s 9M14 earnings growth of 11% y-o-y was due to a sustained profitable track record by subsidiaryLonpac Insurance. The key takeaway is a surge in UW margins in the general insurance (GI) segment of 210bps to 30.6% (from 28.5%), mainly reflected by an improved product mix especially from fire insurance (its most profitable business portfolio) and sustained loss ratios across its motor and non-motor segments. Its management expense ratio was stable at 19.1% (vs 18.8% in 9M13), indicating cost control. These factors offset a soft 4% gross written premium (GWP) growth due to a challenging operating environment and increased competition from other general insurers across Malaysia and Singapore.
Fire insurance still a winner. The UW margin for its fire segment grewto 79% (vs 75% in 9M13), as its fire net claims ratio improved significantly to 16% (from 21% in 9M13). This was in line with the levels of 1Q14 and 2Q14 – which indicated that its business had sizeable and healthy risk diversification. LPI’s overall portfolio remains healthy, as its overall claims ratio rose to 46.5% from 44.8% in 9M13. The motor claims ratio, at 75%, improved slightly from 76% in 9M13 and is in line with current industry trends.
Maintain BUY and a TP of MYR20.70, pegged to an unchanged 18x FY15F P/E and implying a 2.3x FY15F P/BV. While we like LPI for its profitable product mix, our TP is at the lower range of its historical 2.3-2.4x P/BV and 18-20x P/E to reflect the risks in the longer term. We retain our forecasts, as there were no surprises in earnings. Traditionally, LPI announces a handsome second interim dividend towards the 4Q. Our full-year MYR0.89 DPS estimate translates to a >5% yield.
Risks. A lower dividend payout and uncertainties in competition/pricingas the industry prepares for the liberalisation of fire and motor tariffs in 2016. Lonpac has a combined 57% exposure in fire and motor premiums. While increasing competition has resulted in the erosion of premium rates, it is is boosting online offerings and new segments while focusing on cost efficiency and distribution.