LPI Capital Bhd

LPI Capital - Reviews & Target Price

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Publish date: Sat, 03 Jan 2015, 02:25 PM
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LPI Capital - Another Round of Disposal of PBBANK Shares

Date: 30/12/2015 

Source  :  KENANGA
Stock  :  LPI       Price Target  :  13.35      |      Price Call  :  HOLD
        Last Price  :  16.10      |      Upside/Downside  :   -2.75 (17.08%)
 


News

Last Tuesday, LPI announced the disposal of another 2.5m PBBANK shares (0.06% of PBBANK issued shares ex. treasury shares) leaving its PBBANK shareholding at 1.35%.

Comments

This represents the 5th sale of PBBANK shares (first being in 4Q14). So far for FY15, LPI have disposed off 5m PBBANK ordinary shares with a total gain of RM70.5m.

According to the announcement, this disposal will result in FY15 EPS higher by 11.2 sen from the approximate RM37.1m gain. The gain, however, is non-recurring and would not impact core FY15 EPS.

The announcement also stated that the rationale for the disposal is to realise tax-exempt capital gains and to support business growth. The sale proceeds will be used to pay cash dividend to LPI's shareholders in first quarter of 2016 and the balance will be placed into fixed deposit to generate interest income.

Outlook

The move appears rational on the back of the less exciting prospects of the insurance sector where the challenging economy will dampen the growth of insurance industry moving forward. Industry growth is expected to grow between 3-4% for 2015 as forecasted by the General Insurance Association of Malaysia.

Having said that, FY15 net profit will register growth albeit lower at 7.2% (we had forecasted a negative growth for FY15 previously) considering the high FY14 base following the larger sale of PBBANK shares in 4Q14 which provided a higher gain of RM59.9m.

As the disposal will not adversely impact its core earnings, there is no change in our core FY15/16E net profits growth which we maintained at +4.4/+4.7 for FY15/16E.

The disposal will likely result in LPI maintaining its FY15 DPS of 75.0 sen per share (FY14: 75 sen/share). We had assumed it to be at 60.0 sen/share previously. We thus raised our forecast DPS for FY15/16E to 75.0 sen implying a dividend payout of 82%. FY14 dividend payout was at 58% but this is due to the lower number of ordinary shares at 220.5m before the Bonus Issue of 110.7m. For FY16, we maintained DPS of 60.0 sen/share (implying dividend payout of 81%) as subdued earnings will restrict dividends declared.

Change to Forecasts

No change in our core earnings estimates as any potential incremental income from the disposal is expected to be minimal.

Rating

Upgrade to MARKET PERFORM

While LPI is still proving resilient amidst a challenging economic environment, growth is expected to be subdued moving forward.

However, given that LPI consistently strives to boost earnings by capital gains, we do not discount further disposal of PBBANK shares to enhance dividends for FY16.

Valuation

Target price unchanged at RM13.35, based on a blended FY16E price-book (PB)/price-earning (PE) ratio of 2.4/19.1x (previously it was FY16E PB/PE ratio of 2.5/21.2x. The lower valuation is reflective of the lower ROE going forward.

Risks

Lower premium underwritten, hence growth.

Higher-than-expected combined ratio as well as effective tax rate.

Source: Kenanga Research - 30 Dec 2015


 


LPI Capital - Stable Results, Expect Dividends In 4Q

 

Date: 09/10/2014 
 

Source  :  RHB
Stock  :  LPI       Price Target  :  20.70      |      Price Call  :  BUY
        Last Price  :  18.02      |      Upside/Downside  :   +2.68 (14.87%)
 


LPI’s  MYR166m  9M14  profit,  at  75%  of  our/consensus estimates,  is  in line. Despite soft topline growth, the 11% bottomline increase was aided by  a  210bps  improvement in underwriting  (UW)  margin  and  expansion of its profitable fire insurance  unit.  Maintain BUY,  and a  MYR20.70  TP(18x P/E,  18.4% upside).  We expect   in 4Q14  an  interim  dividend/share similar to 4Q13’s MYR0.52 to help fulfil our assumption of a >5% yield.

9M14 performance  in line.  LPI  Capital (LPI)’s 9M14 earnings  growth of 11% y-o-y was due  to a sustained profitable  track record by subsidiaryLonpac Insurance.  The key takeaway is  a surge in UW margins in the general  insurance  (GI)  segment  of  210bps  to  30.6%  (from  28.5%), mainly  reflected  by  an  improved  product  mix  especially  from  fire insurance  (its  most  profitable  business  portfolio)  and  sustained  loss ratios  across  its  motor  and  non-motor  segments.  Its  management expense ratio was  stable at 19.1%  (vs 18.8% in 9M13), indicating  cost control.  These  factors  offset  a  soft  4%  gross  written  premium  (GWP) growth  due  to  a  challenging  operating  environment  and  increased competition from other general insurers across Malaysia and Singapore. 

Fire insurance still  a winner.  The UW margin  for  its  fire  segment grewto  79%  (vs  75%  in  9M13),  as  its  fire  net  claims  ratio  improved significantly to 16%  (from 21% in 9M13). This was  in line with the levels of 1Q14 and 2Q14  –  which indicated that its business had  sizeable  and healthy risk diversification. LPI’s  overall  portfolio remains healthy, as  its overall claims ratio rose to 46.5% from 44.8% in 9M13. The motor claims ratio,  at  75%,  improved  slightly  from  76%  in  9M13  and  is  in  line  with current industry trends. 

Maintain  BUY  and  a  TP  of  MYR20.70,  pegged  to  an  unchanged  18x FY15F P/E  and implying  a  2.3x FY15F P/BV. While we like LPI  for its profitable product mix,  our TP is at the lower range of its historical  2.3-2.4x  P/BV  and  18-20x  P/E  to  reflect  the  risks  in  the  longer  term.  We retain our forecasts, as there were no surprises in earnings. Traditionally, LPI  announces  a  handsome  second  interim  dividend  towards  the  4Q. Our full-year MYR0.89 DPS estimate translates to a >5% yield. 

Risks.  A  lower dividend payout  and  uncertainties in competition/pricingas the industry prepares for the liberalisation of fire and motor tariffs in 2016.  Lonpac  has  a  combined  57%  exposure  in  fire  and  motor premiums. While  increasing  competition  has  resulted  in  the  erosion  of premium rates, it is  is boosting online offerings and new  segments while focusing on cost efficiency and distribution.

 

 


 

 

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