THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
You Must Believe in price charts - Koon Yew Yin (Yes & No - See Calvin comments in response!)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 10:38 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,832
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
You must believe in price charts - Koon Yew YinAuthor: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 11:21 AM A share price chart is a roadmap to show the direction of a share price. Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time. There are a few patterns in chartings which all investors should know in order to make more money or to reduce losses. For examples, an up or down trending stock, an inverted head and shoulders, a cup and handle patterns and etc. About 30 years ago, my wife and I attended a charting course conducted by Dr Neoh Soon Kean who was then a lecturer in University of Malaysia. He is the producer of “Stock Performance Guide” which gives you a brief summary of each listed companies in Bursa Malaysia. For the purpose of this investment lesson, I will elaborate on the chart pattern of cup and handle. On 10th August 2016, I posted the article “Gadang is showing a strong buying signal” when its price was Rm 2.50 per share. The chart was showing the formation of a cup and handle which is a strong signal for buying. The price of Gadang closed at Rm 2.87 on 30th Aug 2016, a rise of 37sen, about 15% in 20 days. You better believe in Charts especially if the stock is supported by strong fundamentals. You can see its annual profit of 40 sen per share as shown on its recent announcement in Bursa. On 25th Aug 2016, the company made a multiple proposals, the details of which you can read from Bursa announcement. Briefly they are:
You must remember that giving out free convertible warrants is like giving cash to all the shareholders because you can easily sell the warrants. Moreover, the warrant price will go up in tandem with the mother share price because the conversion price is fixed.
Although I believe its share price will continue to rise, I am obliged to tell you that I have a lot of Gadang shares and I am not asking you to buy to support the share price.
Calvin comments: This is another Overly Bullish (but reckless call by Uncle KYY). As a responsble member of i3 forum I want to caution all newbies, fellow investors, speculators & blind gamblers in i3 forum. Let me give you the important reasons to be very very careful if you want to punt in this Gadang share. These are Calvin's observations & conclusions on Gadang (please read and consider carefully by yourself). Don't get carried away by the euphoria of rising price chart:
1) Gadang is now at multiyear highs. From below 60 cts in year 2012 to 2016 now at almost Rm2.90 - Gadang is now up a whopping 500%!! Will it go higher? How high? As of now no body knows. But it has grown almost 100% per year for the last 4 years. As Gadang is into construction & property (both cyclicals) the price has now run far ahead of its fundamental. All the future earnings are now priced in. 2) According to Dr Neoh Soon Kean's Stock Investment Book - Bonus Issue, Rights Issue, Share Split & Warrant - DO NOT ADD TRUE VALUE TO A SHARE. What will add value? According to Dr. Neoh's Monthly Digest - repeated time and time again are these 3 yardsticks - 1) HIGH NTA 2) LOW P/E 3) GOOD DIVIDEND. So Uncle KYY misquoted Dr Neoh here. In fact Dr. Neoh warned and warned again about JAWS 1, JAWS 2 & MORE JAWS In Bursa. What he meant was Sharks in Bursa pushing up share prices to draw in naive "lambs for the slaughter" again & again! 3) See How Many Got Conned in Fiamma. Fiamma announed Bonus Issue, share split & Fiamma Warrant. Many chased Fiamma to over Rm2.50 in hot pursuit because of Bonus Issue & Warrants. After the dust has settled many suffered horrendous losses. See Fiamma price chart below FIAMMA HOLDINGS BERHAD [S] (6939)
Company Website
|
||||||||||||
Adjusted for bonus you can SEE Fiamma's price chart. It skyrocketed from around 57 cts at beginning of Jan 2016 then then back to square one again and even lower in price at only 56.5 cts (latest closing price). Will Gadang ends like Fiamma?
As Uncle Koon himself admitted "All investors must know that there is currently an oversupply of properties in every town and cities in Malaysia. Property prices are constantly coming down. As a result, all property companies will be reporting less profit in the next few years.
However, some property companies may report good profit now, but the profit is from property sales of previous years. For example, MKH 3rd quarter profit announcement as shown below."
Does Uncle KYY know not that Gadang is building the white elephant called "CAPITAL CITY 21"?
Actually I have been watching the progress of Capital City 21 as I own one house nearby. Todate the sales are anemic. The temporal surge in bookings might be aborted just like G Residence of GSB!
If so - Gadang will change name to "Gajah" - the white elephant. All better watch out!
4) Since Gadang share price has surged so much both Franklin Fund & Gadang Insiders are Selling & Selling!
See
MR BOEY TAK KONG
Disposed ...................08/08/2016......................................................Rm2.50............................................73,200 shares
Disposed.....................08/08/2016......................................................Rm2.51...........................................50,000 shares
Notice of Person Ceasing (29C)
| GADANG HOLDINGS BHD |
Particulars of Substantial Securities Holder
| Name | FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC. |
| Address |
One Franklin Parkway San Mateo CA 94403-1906 United States. |
Franklin Resources even ceased to be a substantial share holder of Gadang now.
5) I warned Uncle Koon on Latitude when it was peakish at Rm7.00. Yet by his incessant promotion to trap die hard foolish and fool hardy gamblers Latitude reached Rm8.00. Then?
Then Latitude crashed below Rm5.00
See Price Chart
LATITUDE TREE HOLDINGS BERHAD [S] (7006)
Company Website
Annual Report
General Meetings
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 50 of 107 comments
calvintaneng,
please kindly read and see for yourself
1. how GADANG creates 334M from a piece of land that only costs30.5M
2. how Gadang creates a steady income of about 55-60M every year for 5and a half year starting 2015
3. whether capital city 21 a "gajah" or not a gajah ,GADANG will not lose but going to gain BIG
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4381697
calvintaneng said:
"Actually I have been watching the progress of Capital City 21 as I own one house nearby. Todate the sales are anemic. The temporal surge in bookings might be aborted just like G Residence of GSB!
If so - Gadang will change name to "Gajah" - the white elephant. All better watch out!
2016-09-01 22:41
feimah,
you support an advice not to follow blindly is right, absolutely right.
but
if you believe a half-baked homework is unwise .
2016-09-01 22:49
Use just VERY good FA in investing.
Did you see many rich "Mr Look Chart" around? :D
2016-09-01 23:17
Increase or decrease in the number of shares (and company-issued call warrants) WILL NOT add any value to the company under ALL circumstances as the Net assets per share of the company will decrease and increase correspondingly.
They are all exercises of futility.
2016-09-01 23:21
sense maker Use just VERY good FA in investing.
Did you see many rich "Mr Look Chart" around? :D
01/09/2016 23:17
Long time no see Mr Sense Maker. I remember you from Pm Corp days. I read that you turned Rm1 to Rm4 from year 2012 to 2014.
Actually I wanted to tell i3 forumers about Coldeye holding Wangzhang in top 30 shareholders. My Johor Sifu said Coldeye already called it a day & kept himself out of the picture. Or else he might get kidnapped. Haha! Truly rice people lie low.
2016-09-01 23:22
feimah I got to support Calvin this round.
Don't follow blindly whoever says it is a good buy..
Be it KYY or anyone self claim sifu.
There is no free lunch in stock market.
01/09/2016 20:45
Feimah is very wise. There is no free lunch.
True investment (unlike blind gambling) takes lots and lots of hard work.
2016-09-01 23:26
Posted by sense maker > Sep 1, 2016 11:21 PM | Report Abuse
Increase or decrease in the number of shares (and company-issued call warrants) WILL NOT add any value to the company under ALL circumstances as the Net assets per share of the company will decrease and increase correspondingly.
They are all exercises of futility.
How many stock market players out there have this type of wisdom? Very very rare. That is why there are many suckers come and go from the stock market.
In fact I would go further to say this type of corporate exercises have very damaging effect on the small retail shareholders
1) Company pays million to investment bankers to carry out these exercises, reducing the claim of the shareholders.
2) Big shareholders work hand-in-hand with insiders to issue this additional papers to benefit themselves, of course this must be at the expense of someone else you know who.
No, I am not referring to Gadang, but many penny stocks splitting their shares with so called "free" warrants as "free money", or to make them "more liquid". (wah so good one ah, got free things in investment one ah?)
In Gadang's case, I don't see any value to be created either, hopefully it "unlocks" the value of the company.
2016-09-01 23:49
Kcchongnz:
Anyone who has studied LCCI or STPM accounting or equivalent would understand that extra shares alone add no value to the company.
Any claim of that improving illiquidity is false as the minimum trading lot has long been changed to 100 units, not 1000 units. High- price shares like Dlady, Nestle, are good examples that do not subscribe to this artificial exercise.
Calvin:
My performance from 2011 to 2015 was unrepeatably great. But I am plateauing now in 2016. Ouch.
2016-09-02 00:04
You are talking all theories, simple mathematics, that is best to use to swindle all the newbies into believing you.
Ask yourself honestly is it true that market never add value to share splitting , bonus and free warrant?
Do you mean all the BOD of companies spending million for such corporate are crooks out there with no intention to create value for company but to slaughter the small retailers, and we all idiots willing to slaughtered even though after have learnt all the fundamental analysis from you .
Look at scientx, topglove , havea, vs and many others. use a simple mathematics to calculate the price for a period of 1 year before and after the completion of the corporate exercise. I believe and I can confidently tell you ,for a good company like gadang , those newbie who blindly believe your theory and have missed the opportunity to gain from a good stock, will come back here to curse your grandmother.
Wait and see , time will tell the truth
2016-09-02 08:32
See the example of Berkshire Hathaway. No bonus, share split, warrants or even dividend yet thousands flock to Omaha to listen to Warren Buffet every year. And Warren made Us$2 mil every day of his life. That will be the best example.
2016-09-02 09:02
calvin ,
did I say no bonus , no splitting and no free warrant the share price can't go up ?
I do not deny the simple fact that share splitting does not increase the value , but in reality , you also can't deny the fact that market does add value to share splitting
2016-09-02 09:09
calvintaneng,
do you dare say Warrent can't make more than US$ 2M every day if his share price has become cheaper and more people can afford to buy
2016-09-02 09:33
Gadang's Pengerang job is facing margin squeeze due to escalating costs
2016-09-02 10:04
how do you know?
who told you?
wher do you get the information?
you own wild guessing?
christian always speaks without evidence to substantiate ?
Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 2, 2016 10:04 AM | Report Abuse
Gadang's Pengerang job is facing margin squeeze due to escalating costs
2016-09-02 10:10
which property company has no such problem ?
but I say Gadang is safe
why?
read this
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4381697
Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 2, 2016 10:05 AM | Report Abuse
The property arm in Capital City 21 might face more loan rejection.
2016-09-02 10:13
KCChong ,
see for yourself, how your friend Calvintaneng misleads the informed here.
he called himself a Christian
2016-09-02 10:16
how about you do an analysis substantiate your claim
compare the rental paid by gadang with other companies in pengerang
we wish to see how much cheaper other companies have paid
do not just talk only but no evidence to substantiate.
Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 2, 2016 10:13 AM | Report Abuse
rental in pengerang is 4x more than jb city
2016-09-02 10:24
go see my website. i visited pengerang 3 times already
www.johorinvestment.com
2016-09-02 10:32
Really syiok to read the arguement!!
Sifu Pisang is practical , realistic & down to earth
Sifu in the South forcing their ego thro with their books and bibles.
They all are equally good and syiok...
2016-09-02 10:34
KCChong ,
this is the thread is used by Calvin to tarnish KYY
wrong, hentam
right , hentam
no right no wrong , also hentam
asal KYY , hentam
but so unlucky for him this time , he has chosen Gadang which I am following the development closely for years.
i have learnt valuation from you, with all the fact and data in front of me plus foreseeable good earning prospect ahead , I believe I have made a right move .so how can I keep quite and do nothing when he is try to distort the picture.
2016-09-02 10:39
no hentam please. only kindhearted concern for fellow i3 forumers. hope all invest safely
2016-09-02 10:43
Share markets are just game of musical chair....every ending creates new begining ...depending on which chair you sit on...clever guy are blessed with sharp ears.
2016-09-02 10:45
horace said
Many shall be restored that are now fallen and many shall fall that are now in honor.
2016-09-02 10:51
calvin,
if you are really kindhearted as you claim
please substantiate your claim with a fair valuation
we do not want a half-baked homeworked
you know what is "half-baked" ?
what will happen if you eat a half cooked food?
are you not aware you are actually not much better than the one you claimed that he is a crook out there to slaughter the uninformed.
is that what your father and sister taught you in the church?
2016-09-02 10:55
please don't descend into name callings. just keep to ideas.
my visit to pengerang shows a house is 4 times more expensive than other parts of jb
also wages are very high here.
that is why you must look carefully why gadang construction margin is so thin compared to its property arm. just go and read up gadang latest quarterly report and SEE
2016-09-02 11:08
calvin ,
did you compare gadang construction profit margin with other construction companies?
how do I know when did you visit pengerang?
how do I know you indeed had visited pengerang ?
how do i know when did you talk to the kampung man who told you the rental had increased 4 times.
is that for gadang only or for all?
what is the profit margin of gadang compare with other construction companies?
which construction company has construction profit margin higher than its properties profit margin ?
why gadang properties profit keep increasing and contribute more and more despite of poor properties market performance?
is there any of your comment has given a fair view to the questions above
do not play the trick this pakcik told me ,that makcik told , I drive my old carren car going round and I see, alamak... die... sure die liao
2016-09-02 11:23
very funny....
how about a post a link here and tell you i have visited this place 10 times
my good friends,
it is not the number of times you have visited the place that matter
it is how far you can see that really matters
the pakcik who is staying in pengarang still sold the land cheap cheap to the developers because he can't see far
Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 2, 2016 10:32 AM | Report Abuse
go see my website. i visited pengerang 3 times already
www.johorinvestment.com
2016-09-02 11:29
Raider think if u analyse Calvin comment carefully it make sense too...!!
CALVIN IS CORRECT LOH....!!
HE IS A GOOD CHRISTIAN TO FORWARNED !!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016-09-03 12:09
calvin,
I do not know how you logic works
1. do you know in the year 2012 , RM1.00 can buy a bowl of laksa in my town , now it costs RM 5.00 a bowl
2. let me tell what are the EPS of gadang for the FY mentioned
2012 - 7.31 sen
2013 - 10.10 sen
2014 - 22.32 sen
2015 - 27.16 sen
2016 - 41.95 sen
so what the problem for the price to improve from 60sen to RM2.90 ?
01/09/2016 00:44
RAIDER COMMENT;
THIS IS A CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY BUSINESS MAH...!!
CAN THE CONSTRUCTION SUSTAINED WHEN ECONOMY WEAKEN, RESULTING LESS PROJECT ?
DON FORGET GADANG BOSS IS ALSO GREEN PACKET BOSS LOH...!!
SEE HOW WELL THEY GORENG GREEN PACKET...AND HOW MUCH THE BUYERS HAD SUFFERED TODAY ??
ALSO THERE IS A GLUT OF PROPERTIES IN JOHOR....!!
THE BONUS....ETC IS TO ENTICE NEW BUYERS....WHILE SMART MONIES ARE SLOWLY DISPOSING LOH...!!
2016-09-03 12:16
stockraider,
THE BONUS....ETC IS TO ENTICE NEW BUYERS....WHILE SMART MONIES ARE SLOWLY DISPOSING LOH...!!
Yes! Raider Sifu,
You hit the nail on the head!
Bnous Issue is to trap unsuspecting newbies. Insiders will throw on "Hot News" just like when Fiamma peaked at over Rm2.50
After that share price will slowly retrace.
2016-09-03 12:42
Calvin bro, construction jas this risk of continue getting project. Unless 7 are well politically link like mmc, gamuda. See how mudajaya suffer!
2016-09-03 12:51
Posted by paperplane2016 > Sep 3, 2016 12:51 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin bro, construction jas this risk of continue getting project. Unless 7 are well politically link like mmc, gamuda. See how mudajaya suffer!
Yes, Steven Yong Sifu,
You are correct!
Most Govt linked crony stocks will also do well in coming General election of 2017/8
2016-09-03 13:03
Relax and calm down
See this funny cat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWOpAwXwUlc
2016-09-03 13:15
dear brother Calvintaneng,
KYY is pushing Chinwel today.
a company runs by a group of unscrupulous businessmen from Taiwan that quietly poured the untreated industrial water into the river , buried all the industrial waste in the ground to save cost. Caused big environmental disaster to the Vietnamese .
see information shared in Chinwel page for more information
2016-09-03 16:56
better yet ask XinQuan investor ... for opinion. Zombie movie going on there based on famous shaolin monk advise
2016-09-03 16:57
xinquan investor is mistake.
but if you want to be investor, you have to accept you will make mistakes.
2016-09-03 17:02
He knew he screw up in xinquan long time ago...but still trying very hard to promote it in i3 so that he can cut some losses...if i m not mistaken he promoted this counter 2-3 times in i3 n the last attempt was during dec 2015 if i m not mistaken
2016-09-03 19:15
Many smart investors follow Superkoon to buy Evergreen at 2.38. Today those smart investors not so smart anymore. Same thing happen with FLBhd, Latitud, Geshen and Genetec. Have I mention Johortin and Vs? You can check it here http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/53120.jsp
2016-09-03 19:49
Timetokoon's records on koon koon buy calls gives us a good picture on the outcome if u follow his calls..only 1 counter is making money..which is tguan...mostly lose like hell...thats the reason we keep on warning u when old crook comes out with buy calls...as never tell lie sifu once said"chart never lie..",we would say past records never lie...
2016-09-03 20:50
Genetic's paper gain is incorrect as the stock went thru shares consolidation of 10 to 1.timetokoon's record is not adjusted so.
2016-09-03 20:53
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
feimah
I got to support Calvin this round.
Don't follow blindly whoever says it is a good buy..
Be it KYY or anyone self claim sifu.
There is no free lunch in stock market.
2016-09-01 20:45