PETALING JAYA: The looming supply risk factors will likely see crude palm oil (CPO) price stay firm at the RM3,500 to RM4,000 per tonne range this month.

According to CGS-CIMB Research, it will take time to rebuild inventory and solve the worker shortage issue.

The average CPO price rose by 7.7% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 64% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM4,128 per tonne last month.

“There were concerns over palm oil supplies caused by the labour shortage and other edible oils factors due to the adverse weather in the United States and Canada,” said the research house adding that this had offset the impact of lower palm oil export levy imposed by Indonesia.

In its palm oil stock preview ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s July palm oil statistics to be released next week, CGS-CIMB Research said palm oil stocks would likely grow by 1% m-o-m to 1.62 million tonnes as at end-July, as weaker exports trumped declining output.

Range of RM3,500 to RM4,000 per tonne seen.

This is a departure from historical trends, where palm oil stocks in July have risen by an average of 2.9% m-o-m over the past 10 years, the research house added.

The palm oil stock level in Malaysia is projected to stay tight, CGS-CIMB Research said adding that “it is 17% below the July historical average palm oil stock levels for the past 10 years of 1.95 million tonnes.”

A survey of palm oil areas by the CGS-CIMB Futures team revealed that CPO output was at 1.52 million tonnes in July, down by 5% m-o-m and lower by 16% y-o-y.

“Our survey revealed that estates in Sabah and Sarawak posted the sharpest m-o-m production declines in July.

“There is a widening gap between historical production against estimated achievement for the month under review.

“There are several issues namely the severe shortage of foreign workers, ageing trees due to slow replanting, slower new planting rates, restricted movement issues affecting some estates and mills due to the rising Covid-19 cases and lower fertiliser input as a result of logistics issues,” said CGS-CIMB Research.

Based on the export statistics by cargo surveyors – Intertek Testing Services, SGS and Amspec Malaysia – CGS-CIMB estimated that palm oil exports would fall by 6.4% m-o-m and 26% y-o-y to 1.33 million tonnes in July.

In addition, exports to India will likely be lower for the month under review.

The research house noted that palm oil might be attractively priced due to the wide price discount to soya oil, which was US$237 (RM1,000) per tonne on July 29 versus the historical five-year average of about US$122 (RM515.21) per tonne.

“However, this is partly offset by concerns about a weaker demand due to the increase in new Covid-19 cases in some countries and affordability issues due to the current high edible oil prices,” it added.

April to June 21 saw CPO at Rm3500 to Rm4800

Aug 21 Results will be great as Cost of Cpo production below Rm2000

Profit already over 100%

July to Sept 21 months ffb harvest will be reported by Nov 21

Since Cpo now Rm4000 Nov 21 also expected to be great

GREAT TIMES AHEAD FOR PALM OIL COMPANIES