THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

USA Farm Land Prices Up 200% Indicates Malaysia Palm Oil Lands Now Very Undervalue, Calvin Tan

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Publish date: Thu, 19 Aug 2021, 08:47 AM
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Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Hi guys

News just out

US farm lands prices have now shot past USD12,000 an acre!

At Rm4.20 to One USD that means One Acre now costs Rm50,000

See

SUCCESSFUL LAND SALE: NORTHERN IOWA ESTATE AVERAGES $12,900 PER ACRE

 

 

John Cowin has a rule of thumb about land auctions: the quicker the auction, the higher the selling price. 

By that measure, the five-tract, 592-acre estate sale his firm – Central States Real Estate – had August 17 in Kossuth and Winnebago counties in northern Iowa was a good one. From the beginning of announcements to the time the gavel fell was 45 minutes. The result: $7.63 million in total, for an average $12,889 per acre.

What made this sale unique is that four tracts made up one contiguous property totaling 441.2 acres. That property was made up of Tracts 1-4, straddling the Kossuth and Winnebago county line just west of Buffalo Center.

 

“A tract that size selling at auction is very rare,” Cowin said after the sale. 

The sale method featured all five tracts individually. Tracts 1-4 sold at buyer’s choice (one tract or any combination of the four), and Tract 5 individually. All the land was available to farm beginning the 2022 crop year.

Here’s how the sale went:

  • Tract 1: 69 acres, with mostly Harps, Clarion, and Harcot soils. There are 65.1 acres of tillable property with 2.4 acres of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) paying $184.50 per acre through 2028. The farm has a Corn Suitability Rating (CSR) 2 of 61.2. It sold separately for $565,800 ($8,200 per acre) to a farmer.
  • Tract 2: 127 acres, with 123 tillable, featuring Nicollet, Canisteo, Clarion, and Webster soils and a CSR2 of 82.3. There is 6.5 acres of CRP, paying $184.51 through 2028. 
  • Tract 3: 103 acres, with 98 acres tillable and the rest in roads. The property has a CSR2 of 79.94 and features Harps, Webster, and Nicollet soils. 
  • Tract 4: 141 acres, with 139.45 tillable (including 6.2 acres of CRP paying $203.97 through 2028) and 1.76 acres of roads. The CSR2 rating is 74.8. Soils include Webster, Okoboji, and Canisteo.

Tracts 1-4 sold as one 370-acre unit for $13,000 per acre. A local landowner/investor bought these properties. 

  • Tract 5: located southwest of the rest of the property, this unit has 151 acres, 149 of which are tillable. Soil types are Canisteo, Clarion, and Nicollet and the CSR2 is 84.1. It sold for $2.144 million, or $14,200 per acre. A local farmer bought Tract 5.

The atmosphere was energetic, with five or six active bidders on each property. A local lender served lunch to about 70 people.

AUCTION COMMENTARY

Cowin says land prices are on the rise, due to high commodity prices and the 2020-21 CFAP money. 

“There are a lot of guys with pent up cash and money to spend,” he says. 

Since January 1, 24 farms have sold in Kossuth County, Cowin says. They’ve brought an average of $157.74 per CSR 2 point. In 2020, the average selling price was $105.42 per CSR2 point, he says. That return is driving more people to sell farmland. For instance, Central States Real Estate has another land sale Thursday, and three more next week.  

“When you start getting $12,000 to 15,000 per acre, a lot of people decide it’s a good time to get out. Markets are up, interest rates are still low, and there is some unknown about President Biden’s tax plan,” Cowin says. 

Interestingly, most land transactions in 2020 were private treaty. This year, sellers are returning to the auction method, he adds. “If you want to know the market value of a piece of property on a given day, an auction is the way to find out.” 

WINNEBAGO COUNTY FARM FACTS

In 2020, Winnebago County led Iowa’s corn yield, with an average of 208 bushels per acre. Soybean yields were 59.7 bushels per acre. The average cash rent paid in the county is $224 per acre, with higher quality land fetching $250 per acre, according to Iowa State University data. 

 

 

Why prices have gone up so high?

Answer:

Because Farm lands are getting more valuable due to rising corn and soybean prices.

 

Why Soybean/Corn prices are rising?

Answer:

2 Big Factors

1) China

China with 1.35 BILLION people cannot feed itself so it must buy food grains from USA

2) USA Shift to Biodisel Use

Many Refineries are turning from Fossil Fuel to Biodisel

Corn and Soybean are used as feedstock for Biodisel

See

Phillips 66 Plans to Transform San Francisco Refinery into World's

Largest Renewable Fuels Plant

August 12, 2020

Conversion is expected to reduce the plant’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50%

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company, announced today that it plans to reconfigure its San Francisco Refinery in Rodeo, California, to produce renewable fuels. The plant would no longer produce fuels from crude oil, but instead would make fuels from used cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils.

The Phillips 66 Rodeo Renewed project would produce 680 million gallons annually of renewable diesel, renewable gasoline, and sustainable jet fuel. Combined with the production of renewable fuels from an existing project in development, the plant would produce greater than 800 million gallons a year of renewable fuels, making it the world’s largest facility of its kind.

The project scope includes the construction of pre-treatment units and the repurposing of existing hydrocracking units to enable production of renewable fuels. The plant will utilize its flexible logistics infrastructure to bring in cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils from global sources and supply renewable fuels to the California market. This capital efficient investment is expected to deliver strong returns through the sale of high value products while lowering the plant’s operating costs.

“Phillips 66 is taking a significant step with RodeoRenewed to support demand for renewable fuels and help California meet its low carbon objectives,” said Greg Garland, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. “We believe the world will require a mix of fuels to meet the growing need for affordable energy, and the renewable fuels from RodeoRenewed will be an important part of that mix. This project is a great example of how Phillips 66 is making investments in the energy transition that will create long term value for our shareholders.”

If approved by Contra Costa County officials and the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, renewable fuels production is expected to begin in early 2024. Once reconfigured, the plant will no longer transport or process crude oil.

The plant is expected to employ more than 400 jobs and up to 500 construction jobs, using local union labor, including the Contra Costa County Building & Construction Trades.

Phillips 66 also announced plans to shut down the Rodeo Carbon Plant and Santa Maria refining facility in Arroyo Grande, California, in 2023. Associated crude oil pipelines will be taken out of service in phases starting in 2023.

 

What has Malaysia Palm Oil got to do with US soybean?

 

YES!

BECAUSE SOYBEAN OIL AND PALM OIL ARE CO-RELATED

BOTH ARE USED AS COOKING OIL

IF SOYBEAN OIL GOES UP ALOT....PALM OIL WILL ALSO GO UP ALOT

 

Best regards

Calvin 

 

Please buy/sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your Remisier/Fund Manager

 

 

 

 

 

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