THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
CPO OVER RM5,000: A LOOK AT SOME COMMENTS FROM FELLOW FORUMERS IN PALM OIL (Comments by Calvin)
calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 07 Oct 2021, 10:49 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,795
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Hello Friends,
This nice evening in Singapore I was looking through the comments of fellow i3 Forumers
They all seemed happy & bullish
And these are some samples of their comments (Please refer to the respective forums to check)
1) THPLANT
Johnzhang Just to share some historical data of past 10 years .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
07/10/2021 7:02 AM
John obseved that in year 2012 Cpo price was only Rm3500 a ton. Today is Rm5,000 (42% Higher)
Yet Plantation share prices are trading at 30% to 50% discount to year 2012 prices
So he concludes that price increase yesterday is just the beginning of recovery.
2) TSH RESOURCES
Investorrr whole year 2021 net profit should be around rm140mil that would translate to 0.10 EPS on 1832 TSH share issued.based conservative computation of 20xPE ,target price rm2/. If sales if palm old land is successfully closed by end year ,that would be a one time big profit for TSH
.AT least a profit if rm100 mill.If added to whole net profit ,total net profit should be rn240mil (,one time profit). ESP should be 0.13.what tp would be?based on 20x PE.
.AT least a profit if rm100 mill.If added to whole net profit ,total net profit should be rn240mil (,one time profit). ESP should be 0.13.what tp would be?based on 20x PE.
05/10/2021 10:03 PM
Investorrr has computed the target price of TSH to be Rm2.00
pvd_investor Very encouraging to see company directors buying tirelessly along with a stable share price uptrend..
07/10/2021 2:41 PM
Correct: Insider Boss kept up buying relentlessly
| TSH RESOURCES BERHAD |
| Type | Announcement | ||||||||||
| Subject |
DEALINGS IN LISTED SECURITIES (CHAPTER 14 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) DEALINGS OUTSIDE CLOSED PERIOD |
||||||||||
| Description |
Pursuant to Paragraph 14.09(a) of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, the following Director has transacted dealing in the securities of the Company as set out in Table 1 hereunder. |
||||||||||
|
|||||||||||
Rm1.23 is the new support price of Tsh Resources
3) BPLANT
Starisborn From BPlant latest annual report, it shows that it has 98,212 hectares of land. Going by the latest sale of land to YTL @ RM645,833 per hectare with an historical net book value of just RM93,527 per hectare......it point to a huge unrealised revaluation gain of those land that remains unsold in the Company.
On the assumption that even if we recognised that not all lands held deserve a huge valuation, a simple simulation of just 15% value of what was sold recently or @RM96,875 per hectare, the potential valuation surplus stands at RM2.57 per share and if we are to deduct all borrowings, the net cash per share stands at RM2.01.
This couple with the all time high of CPO price which will yield better earnings and dividends in the coming quarters.
I am not at all surprise by lots of people queueing to buy into future success! This counter deserved to be rerated upwards!
On the assumption that even if we recognised that not all lands held deserve a huge valuation, a simple simulation of just 15% value of what was sold recently or @RM96,875 per hectare, the potential valuation surplus stands at RM2.57 per share and if we are to deduct all borrowings, the net cash per share stands at RM2.01.
This couple with the all time high of CPO price which will yield better earnings and dividends in the coming quarters.
I am not at all surprise by lots of people queueing to buy into future success! This counter deserved to be rerated upwards!
07/10/2021 10:19 AM
Star Is Born said that Net cash per share of Bplant is Rm2.01 a share. And expect better dividends
4) SOP
TheSecret *Good afternoon from RHB Plantations Team!*
*CPO one month futures shot past MYR5,000/tonne*
♦️ *What should investors do?* Ride the wave. This is practically one of the first times this year that share prices are moving in tandem with CPO prices. For investors who have been waiting for this sector to do something all year, now is the time to ride the wave and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits.
♦️ *Can this rally last?* There was no fundamental change that happened over the last few days to trigger this sudden spike. Plantation monthly stats due to come out next week are likely to show a reduction in stocks on the back of improved exports, however the reduction is expected to be minimal, therefore insignificant. We believe this jump above MYR5,000 may be short lived as we continue to expect next year's fundamentals of supply to improve, with a moderation of CPO prices in 2022. Main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalities.
♦️ *If I want to partake in the rally, what should I BUY?* We would recommend liquid big cap names like Sime and IOI. Sensitivity to CPO price movement may not be as significant as the smaller cap names, but liquidity is there so that investors are able to be nimble.
♦️ *Any change to our UW sector call?* Not at this moment. Our call is a 12 month call, and we still believe in the wake of improving fundamentals and moderating prices in 2022, earnings will be weaker YoY, while ESG concerns will still have a part to play in valuations of the sector as a whole. We continue to like the smaller cap names like SOP and Ta Ann in Malaysia, integrated players like First Resources and Wilmar in Singapore and London Sumatra In Indonesia.
♦️ *RHB Research*
*CPO one month futures shot past MYR5,000/tonne*
♦️ *What should investors do?* Ride the wave. This is practically one of the first times this year that share prices are moving in tandem with CPO prices. For investors who have been waiting for this sector to do something all year, now is the time to ride the wave and wait for a good opportunity to lock in some profits.
♦️ *Can this rally last?* There was no fundamental change that happened over the last few days to trigger this sudden spike. Plantation monthly stats due to come out next week are likely to show a reduction in stocks on the back of improved exports, however the reduction is expected to be minimal, therefore insignificant. We believe this jump above MYR5,000 may be short lived as we continue to expect next year's fundamentals of supply to improve, with a moderation of CPO prices in 2022. Main risk to this thesis is weather abnormalities.
♦️ *If I want to partake in the rally, what should I BUY?* We would recommend liquid big cap names like Sime and IOI. Sensitivity to CPO price movement may not be as significant as the smaller cap names, but liquidity is there so that investors are able to be nimble.
♦️ *Any change to our UW sector call?* Not at this moment. Our call is a 12 month call, and we still believe in the wake of improving fundamentals and moderating prices in 2022, earnings will be weaker YoY, while ESG concerns will still have a part to play in valuations of the sector as a whole. We continue to like the smaller cap names like SOP and Ta Ann in Malaysia, integrated players like First Resources and Wilmar in Singapore and London Sumatra In Indonesia.
♦️ *RHB Research*
06/10/2021 4:42 PM
TheSecret reposted RHB INVESTMENT BANK BUY CALL FOR SOP
5) TAANN
Invest_888 Nice to compare the highest share price level with CPO RM3500 in year 2012 to current CPO RM5000 above.
Just compare TAANN with SOP
TAANN:
Latest quarterly financial result, EPS= 16.83 cent, NAV= RM3.46, Share price = RM3.15
SOP:
Latest quarterly financial result, EPS= 17.20 cent, NAV= RM4.48, Share price = RM3.93
Obviously, SOP latest quarterly earning EPS is just 0.37cent more than TAANN, but the share price of SOP is almost 80cent more than TAANN. This indicates that TAANN share price got big discount. If SOP share price can hit RM6.62, TAANN also can reach at least RM6.00.
TAANN make good profit from its associate oil palm company, SWKPLNT. TAANN is the largest shareholder of the SWKPLNT. Both TAANN & SWKPLNT give dividend generously.
Just compare TAANN with SOP
TAANN:
Latest quarterly financial result, EPS= 16.83 cent, NAV= RM3.46, Share price = RM3.15
SOP:
Latest quarterly financial result, EPS= 17.20 cent, NAV= RM4.48, Share price = RM3.93
Obviously, SOP latest quarterly earning EPS is just 0.37cent more than TAANN, but the share price of SOP is almost 80cent more than TAANN. This indicates that TAANN share price got big discount. If SOP share price can hit RM6.62, TAANN also can reach at least RM6.00.
TAANN make good profit from its associate oil palm company, SWKPLNT. TAANN is the largest shareholder of the SWKPLNT. Both TAANN & SWKPLNT give dividend generously.
07/10/2021 9:53 AM
INVEST_888 said TA ANN can reach at least RM6.00
6) JAYA TIASA
CCWONG Jtiasa's adverse historical performance is past and now, it is on the way to good/excellent financial performance in view of the shear size of its plantations and good CPO market price.
Buying for LT is always the correct and right choice.
No need to think so much like a Rocket Scientist.
Buying for LT is always the correct and right choice.
No need to think so much like a Rocket Scientist.
06/10/2021 1:07 PM
miniminer Wow ! .... continuous 2 days big volume, uptrend, iniKali la !!
CPO price up more than 50% now, Jtiasa Sept a clear increase of Fresh Fruit Bunches and Crude palm oil production, Q1 profit must be very chun chun punya while this Q1 fair value gain also expects to be significant. Mari-mari cepat..... Aiyo...management must consider to give dividend if not bonus share ler ......hehehe.................
CPO price up more than 50% now, Jtiasa Sept a clear increase of Fresh Fruit Bunches and Crude palm oil production, Q1 profit must be very chun chun punya while this Q1 fair value gain also expects to be significant. Mari-mari cepat..... Aiyo...management must consider to give dividend if not bonus share ler ......hehehe.................
06/10/2021 11:55 PM
CCWONG & miniminer sounded quite bullish in Jtiasa Forum
Best regards
Calvin Tan
Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or consult your remisier/fund manager
Johnzhang Just to share some historical data of past 10 years .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
Plantantion share price on day closing high (H) in year 2012 were as below (adjusted for RI or BI if any)
Thplant. $2.45
Sop. $6.62
MHC. $1.46
Cepat. $1.18
Swkplt. $3.24
Taann. $4.50
Hsplant. $3.18
Bplant. $1.34
Note :Bplant H was in 2018. Listed in 2014.
CPO high was about $3,600 pmt in Mar 2012
CPO now reached almost $5,100 yesterday.
Cost of production may have increased by $200 pmt since 2012.
After factoring in the higher production cost , today 's CPO price is still about 35% higher than 2012.
On the contrary, share price for most of the plantantions companies are trading at about 30- 50% below the high in 2012. What a divergence!
I believe the share price increase yesterday is just the beginning of the recovery. Enjoy the recovery ride .
07/10/2021 7:02 AM
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 23 of 23 comments
Go for it loh!
High cpo price loh!
Farmland very cheap now mah!
Plantation a protection against inflation mah!
2021-10-08 13:31
Anyone got palm oil should hold for 3, 6 or 9 months to see the upside difference
In bull market the best and wise thing to do is to buy, sit still, do nothing and let the profits run
"Sustain your patience great movements take time to develop "
2021-10-08 16:25
I had bought plantation counters, including THPLANT, after reading a few of Calvin Tan's posts a few months ago. These companies had `looked so obvious' in terms of profits due to the rise and rise in CPO prices. But they were unloved, with many investors at Bursa ignoring them.
However, with tech counters being so pricey, plantations are finally seeing some attention. I'm confident we'll be seeing very satisfying gains in their share prices over the coming weeks. For serious investors, one must have at least a couple of plantation counters in his portfolio.
2021-10-08 18:05
It is evident that it is high time to abandon plantation stocks as CPO price is ridiculously high.
2021-10-08 18:09
Syndicates don't want to push up palm oil counters. You need huge buying for price to rocket up.
2021-10-08 18:37
Hi guys,
Yesterday & today I spoken to 3 Remisiers & one Top Boss of IB Bank
This is what I gathered
From Kl Stock Broker (25 years to 30 years experience)
How many people make or lost money you know by experience after so long time as a Remisier
"90%" he replied
"What? 90% of market players lost money in share market" I asked in great surprise
He said, "No! More than 90% made losses!"
I really curious and asked further, "You mean up to 95% of people are losing money playing shares?"
He said, "NO! TO BE EXACT 98% OF MARKET PUNTERS/TRADERS LOST MONEY"
He said, "Only 2 persons out of 100 can make money because they don't play short term or contra but invest"
From Johor Lady Stock Broker
She said 80% to 90% of her customers lost money in the share market. Her best friend who opened a trading account with her also lost money & now no more her friend as she refused to speak to her.
Oh boy! JB also so bad?
So i called friend in Melaka to check from Melaka Remisier since it is a more relaxed place
The whataspp came back, "80% TO 90% Market players mostly lost money eventually"
WOW! ALL PEOPLE EVERYWHERE THE SAME - LOSSES AFTER MORE LOSSES?
So I called asked on TOP IB BANK BOSS
He replied, "90% of Traders lost money"!
THAT'S IT
THE SHARE MARKET IS A REALLY HORRIBLE PLACE FOR THE CARELESS & CAREFREE
90% WILL EVENTUALLY LOST MONEY OR WASTED THEIR TIME
ONLY THE SMALL 10% WILL MAKE MONEY
Calvin wants to be in that small minority & happy to stay out of limelight
2021-10-08 19:23
Yes that is what Calvin has been doing
Kiyosaki said buy farm lands
SO CALVIN BUYS PALM OIL STOCKS (ALL FULL OF FARM LANDS)
2021-10-08 19:38
agreed with Kiyosaki! if anything happened to oil palm stocks due to govt issues (eg. FGV privatisation), harvesters shortage (strict intake of foreign workers), adverse weather conditions hampering harvesting, crop evacuation, ffb production n CPO quality plus global demand for edible oil palm...., d land n its value will always b intact.
2021-10-08 20:33
Mat Cendana I had bought plantation counters, including THPLANT, after reading a few of Calvin Tan's posts a few months ago. These companies had `looked so obvious' in terms of profits due to the rise and rise in CPO prices. But they were unloved, with many investors at Bursa ignoring them.
However, with tech counters being so pricey, plantations are finally seeing some attention. I'm confident we'll be seeing very satisfying gains in their share prices over the coming weeks. For serious investors, one must have at least a couple of plantation counters in his portfolio.
08/10/2021 6:05 PM
{{{For serious investors, one must have at least a couple of plantation counters in his portfolio.
08/10/2021 6:05 PM)))
Well done!
Yes you are correct
Well done!
Yes you are correct!
Great Sifus like Dr Neoh Soon Kean of Dynaquest (Jtiasa, Thplant, Subur, SOP, WTK ), Cold Eye (Innoprise Plant) & Dr Tan Chong Koay & Value Partner Hong Kong all like Palm Oil Stocks
2021-10-08 21:56
Unbelievable Strength
Today October 2021 Fcpo closed at another RECORD HIGH OF RM5,139
All the records smashed just like in the Olympics
CPO IS PERFORMING SPECTACULARLY
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices
2021-10-08 22:27
The genuine palm oil traders/punters would probably trade and speculate in CPO futures. Palm oil companies are good for dividend play and will remain laggards unless there's rumours of privatisation, takeover, merger etc.
2021-10-08 23:56
TheContrarian
There is a time for every Cyclical stock as the Bible says "God made everything beautiful in His own time"
I fully believe the time for Palm oil bull run has come
You missed Opcom because you did not understand the Nfcp theme (belated)
Take 10 days off and study palm oil
Next month when all the Palm oil companies report their once a cycle earning first
And if Cpo prices march above Rm6000 or higher then it could be once a Century Super bull for palm oil
2021-10-09 08:01
i see SOP a gud plantation stock to invest with CPO price sustaining at around n above RM 4,888 per ton!
2021-10-09 09:21
Personally, I love Sime Plantation. I saw how Sime Plantation skyrocketed from RM 3.60 to RM 4.20 last wednesday. Other plantation theme stocks perform exceptionally well too. Calvin, may I know what is your outlook on Sime Plantation and how it will perform in these 2 weeks in short term, considering it very much undervalued?
2021-10-09 13:26
Calvin, I did invest in Cepat, MHC and FGV and have taken good profits.
2021-10-09 14:07
investor2021trading i see SOP a gud plantation stock to invest with CPO price sustaining at around n above RM 4,888 per ton!
09/10/2021 9:21 AM
Yes investor2021trading
Calvin fully agree with you
In fact I told all that SOP is a "MUST HAVE" in every Palm Oil Stocks investor/trader
With 300,000 Acres and over 200,000 Acres now Maturing into Prime Production Age SOP will see Incremental Harvest of FFB (Latest is 109,000 Tons of FFB), SOP also has a Property Division called SOP Property which is like SimeDarby's Property Arm SIMEPROP. Ioi too in time grew a branch called IOI Property as well as others.
One of the greatest potential is the very high profit product called "Merris Red Palm Oil" by SOP
And SOP also went further downstream into Healthfood supplements like Vit E & Vit A (Beta Carotene)
So SOP is evolving into a vertically integrated company - capturing every step of the Value Chains from Upstream to mid-stream and down stream and from there still spreading its new wings of Growth in Every Direction Posible
To Calvin SOP Below Rm4.00 is just a Crazy Price. Its Earnings beat both Uplant & BLD Plant & it is selling below NAV
I see Longer Term SOP will rise up to be a Blue Chip over Rm10.00
Read this carefully (spend at least 3 days to digest what is written)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2021-10-06-story-h1591908793-SARAWAK_OIL_PALM_SOP_VERSUS_UNITED_PLANT_BLD_PLANT_Compare_their_Share_.jsp
2021-10-09 15:07
TheContrarian Calvin, I did invest in Cepat, MHC and FGV and have taken good profits.
09/10/2021 2:07 PM
Very good
I sold cepat but keeping Mhc Plant & FGV
Since MHC Plant owns Cepat I got MHC Plant enough
I also got Tsh Resources but not Innoprise Plant
Since TSH is Top 2nd holder of Innoplant having TSH is good enough
So is TAANN Which is Top holder of Swkplant.
I also bought SOP, Thplant, Jtiasa & BPlant all of which are very excellent as well.
2021-10-09 16:26
Thank you Calvin for the wonderful insights and illustration of the ship also taking time to read and reply to me. As you can see, the reason I buy simeplt is because I think it can reach RM 5.00 in near future. I able to get myself a position at RM 4.00 during the rapid bull run of SimePlt on Wednesday and it was my biggest bag holder of my portfolio. I am quite worry that it will drop below RM 4.00
2021-10-09 18:11
Palm oil cpo in strong uptrend above Rm5,000 very hard for Simeplant to go below Rm4.00 as bull run will give strong buying support now
All palm oil companies this year will move up in their turns just like glove and medical stocks have their good runs last year
Don't sell too early as the palm oil bull is still young
2021-10-09 18:18
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
"What should investors do?
RIDE THE WAVE.
By RHB RESEARCH
2021-10-08 08:02