I wasn't interested in plantation counters then, around 2 years ago. Not exciting at all. But I've followed the market long enough, and had seen their price cycles. Especially when institutions and foreign investors come in. Would regret very much, and envious, not having plantation companies in my portfolio when that happened.
Have to acknowledge that your various posts on palm oil had led me to gradually make them a major component in my investing portfolio. Despite these being "so un-sexy" compared to many other counters at Bursa, I had bought TH Plantations when it was below 0.50. Despite being hesitant because Maybank IB had a Sell call on it, even at that price! (It has quietly changed to a higher TP). And also TSH.
My target was just a reasonable "50% of capital invested" within a couple of years or so. Well, got that and more. And gotten another bite of the cherry when prices started to go down. I guess there's also `good' when/if IBs are pushing the price downwards :) Despite reports of labour shortage etc., CPO prices are simply too attractive. Buying plantation counters is the easiest way for us urban folks to also `tumpang' the benefits.
Not to gloat (Well, maybe just a bit) but the opportunity was fairly clear earlier. This is a "Too important to fail" company that will likely be helped by the "hidden hands in the corridors of power" who will persuade and pressure decision-makers. These hidden hands are a group of people that are found everywhere, in all countries, not just in Malaysia. The backroom power dealers. Not to say "like Illuminati", but have to acknowledge their power. Leaders and politicians are the most visible to us. But they don't get far, or stay long, without the backing of hidden hands, whoever these may comprise of in Malaysia.
One lesson - regardless of whether we like the system, the government, company etc., always look after *our* own interests first and foremost. If there looks to be an opportunity for us to "tumpang sekaki" and make some money, then take it. And not spend time and energy arguing about politics, fairness etc. which won't bring in money for us.
Encouraging day for this counter. Is it just normal portfolio-balancing by institutional buyers like EPF and KWAP, or something going on? Like that much-speculated (since several years ago) "taking it private again"? Hopefully it's investors, big and small, having interest in unexciting utilities companies again.
I've been trying to add SE at 0.035 but haven't gotten filled yet. Maybe should have just given in at 0.04 and not be so `kedekut'. But half a sen at this price level is big percentage-wise so I'll just be patient and hope.
Sapura Energy may be in a very tight spot right now. But I'm betting it's one of those "Too important to go bust" company in Malaysia. It IS NOT "like Serba Dinamik". Which means, those in the corridors of power will help. Either because they want to, or are pressured to. These are the decision-makers who aren't household names, unlike politicians. But they can make things happen.
Worst-case, might lose some money if SE drops from this already low level. But if there are positive developments (quite likely), investors/traders are going to jump in. Going `only' to 0.08 is already 100% gain. This is a risk worth taking.
Calvin Tan - The Palm Oil Hero at i3investor :) Those who had cared to read Calvin's arguments over the past one year-plus would be sitting comfortably now. Despite the recent drop in most plantation counters. In retrospect it was so obvious. These counters had been grossly undervalued since investors had chosen to ignore. Only came in when the crowd had already pushed the prices up. But there could be a second chance for a bite for those who had missed earlier.
@newguy0801 Psychologically, if investors had considered this as "burn" already, it's like receiving "free money" with the suspension lifted and can liquidate :) I didn't hold much hope for it based on previous developments. In fact it was almost delisted, which wouldn't have been surprising at all.
Well, well... The l-o-n-g suspension has finally been lifted. Had bought this some years ago at the `cheap' price of 0.05. Of course with these things cheap can become cheaper. Worse still, become suspended. Fortunately it didn't go to the level of being delisted.
I had written this off as a total loss and moved on. Only a couple of thousand ringgit involved. Now that it's relisted I'm just going to let those units remain and see what will happen. Maybe buy a bit more at the current price just for the heck of it :)
Opportunity to buy Pestech next week. Speculators/Traders are confused, thinking that it's a "tech counter" and joined in the selling. In reality it's more of a power company plus railway-related business.
Most of the analysts usually quoted by The Edge, The Star Business etc. had gotten it wrong with CPO prices. I remember one guy who said in late 2020 it will undergo a sharp correction back to the lower RM3,000 from June 2021. Instead it continued going up, regaining momentum whenever it did correct. The current price and duration weren't in these analysts' calculations.
These plantation counters aren't exciting like tech. Which is fine for those of us who prefer their prices to just creep up quietly. And I believe the general market will sooner or later realise they are a must-have in investors' portfolios. Right now, any time the prices drop, that's an opportunity to add. And just wait.
I didn't know about that great famine in China until around 2008 or so when I read a book about it. Some really shocking incidents during this period that would seem like `fiction' or `propaganda' by enemies. But these were verified by people there.
Although not widespread, there were incidents of fresh graves being dug up at night, with the bodies consumed. Those who did so knew it was wrong, and they were extremely ashamed. But that's what starvation can lead people to do. Traumatic just reading about this and knowing it happened :-(
It's fortunate that we have never faced this kind of situation before. So much so that we take food for granted. As seen by the wastage of leftovers at home and restaurants that are simply thrown away. And how often have we ourselves pushed away food after taking just a bit because "Tak sedap".
It isn't urgent right now but would do well for us to think about food security and do something about this. Particularly at home, of which all of us can do something about. At our own pace, while the going is good.
Bankruptcy - I don't think so. Not with PNB being a major shareholder. More likely, it will undergo restructuring. Various parties, including its creditors, will be keen to try save it (and their investment). At the end of this, I believe Shahril will lose control. This will be a new entity, even if it still uses the same name.
Mokhzani Mahathir is probably the one of the biggest winners with the most `ong' or `tuah'. The older participants at i3investor would remember when his Kencana Petroleum merged with Sapura to create SKPetro.
If I remember correctly, the reference price was around 2.20 or so. It (the share price) didn't do too well initially. But then it started to pick up, especially with crude oil prices at the highest ever (more than US$100/barrel). It was often in the news, positively, with announcements of various new contracts. SKPetro became one of the favourite counters among investors and speculators, including foreigners, during that time.
Doesn't matter what one thinks of him but can't deny that Mokhzani is a savvy investor. He started to sell his shares when these were at very high levels. So much so that Shahril and the remaining significant shareholders no longer see why the company should still have "Kencana" in its name.
Don't know whether Mokhzani still has shares in Sapura Energy, directly or indirectly. But whatever, he got out when the going was VERY good. Took his (massive) profits and used it for something else. Can't begrudge him for his good fortune, particularly in his great timing.
If can get at 0.045, I'm in. So much debt, issues and all. But at this price, can treat like a structured warrant and just risk it with a small buy. Without having to think about expiry date as with a SW. Sure, there's always the possibility of it going even lower. But I'm going to just let the future decide.
@tamp0i A lot of truth in what you have written here. Look back at previous reports by these IB analysts and one will see how wrong many of them have been. Especially in their sky-high target prices of glove counters. Off-hand I remember Supermax TP at RM14.
Many people had comforted themselves with these reports and kept buying. It's a sad fact that many look up so high to IB analysts, seeing them as experts and so they swallow everything. Unfortunately they are often wrong, and big time too as with glove counters.
With these companies having seen sharp price correction, it's more likely they are at or very near to the bottom already. But let's see how right or wrong this particular analyst is in the coming weeks.
I had bought plantation counters, including THPLANT, after reading a few of Calvin Tan's posts a few months ago. These companies had `looked so obvious' in terms of profits due to the rise and rise in CPO prices. But they were unloved, with many investors at Bursa ignoring them.
However, with tech counters being so pricey, plantations are finally seeing some attention. I'm confident we'll be seeing very satisfying gains in their share prices over the coming weeks. For serious investors, one must have at least a couple of plantation counters in his portfolio.
I'm old enough to remember SOP's public issue/IPO in early 1990s. I can't remember the exact price but it was around RM2.20. Most investors back then didn't care too much about it.
The top plantation counters to buy back then were KLK (which I had bought at RM3.30 one time), IOI, Golden Hope. But it's heartening to note that SOP is still doing fine. IB analysts like from Maybank also rate it highly. At this current level, I'd say SOP is a reasonably safe counter to buy.
3.24... It might go down some more but I'm adding some lots anyway. Regardless of "more competition", "reduced ASP", "possible windfall tax" etc. as stated by some analysts. The projected satisfying dividends are a big reason. As with the fact that gloves are a good business to be in during times like now. Profits might not be as huge as the last two quarters especially, but at least are expected to be "satisfactory".
Another monster quarter results from Kossan. The company may have also warned about "falling glove prices" in the coming quarters. But bear in mind these will at least still be "satisfactory".
In times like now, if a company continues to make profits AND give out generous dividends, an investor must have it in his portfolio. Right now institutional buyers are likely looking at Kossan's dividends and they may buy. After all they need to put the funds somewhere and Kossan is certainly at a very attractive price.
@calvintaneng I sure hope you are right about plantations :) Had bought TH Plantations two weeks ago after reading your post. Will also buy TSH very soon. Hoping to get at least 50% capital gains from these in the coming months, if investors start giving more attention to plantations.
I'm also into gloves, after the price correction over the past 2 days. Yes, stiff competition and all but I believe there's still some money to be made with gloves - the product and share price. Sentiment can change fast. Especially when institutions look to add dividend-paying counters. At least that's my hope :)
I had sold way too early last week, at 0.57. Sigh. Left so much money on the table. Looking for it to go down enough so that I can to buy again. Not at this price though. A lot of life in this warrant until expiry and the ex. price isn't far from the mother's.
The risk is the mother slowly spiralling down. But this shouldn't happen if the quarter results show at least "good-enough" profits. Don't have to be excellent like the previous one.
This is one of the most important posts, and I thank Mr. Koon for his courage in sharing it. At the very least, it might help bring more attention to mental issues faced by so many people. Mostly in silent by them and their families, due to the stigma attached. With insensitive outsiders, it is somehow seen and used as material for jokes!
Hopefully, with better and more accurate information over time, our society will show more understanding and compassion towards people with mental issues. Without compassion, we can never ever be a developed country, for there's more to this than just the financial aspects.
The stock market shows its vicious side towards Comfort today. But at this price, I'm buying. Sure, it might go down further tomorrow and in the coming days.
There's the talk about recovery, competition, reduced ASP etc., especially from investment bank analysts, that make many investors scared. Yes, read their reports and think about their assessments. But we should also do our own research and evaluation and not follow these analysts too much. After all they have been proven wrong time and again.
Regardless of those analysts' reports, in my opinion an investor must have a glove counter or two in his portfolio. In these times of Covid-19, glove companies are in a comfortable financial position. Even with increased competition and reduced ASPs. With Comfort, I feel it's reasonable to target at least a 50% capital gain in the coming months. Doesn't look like it right now but sentiment can quickly change. I'm making this counter a key counter in my investment portfolio based on this speculation.
Regardless of what some analysts say about reduced ASP in the coming quarters, a glove counter or two is a must in my portfolio. Comfort especially is at a very attractive price based on the latest results.
Sentiment among investors for glove counters isn't favourable right now. But I believe this will change. After all what other industries are making this kind of profit right now?
For investors, one simply must have a glove counter or two in his portfolio. Although some analysts talk about ASP dropping, more players etc., these glove companies are in a very cosy position. And this will remain in the foreseeable future.
They have been turning in very impressive profits over the past few quarters. Kossan for instance had reported a monster first quarter last week, and this current second quarter should also be very good. And this company isn't too stingy when it comes to dividends.
Anyway, I've decided to just ignore the daily price action and not think too much about these `reduced ASP', short sellers and such. For as long as the environment remains positive for glove companies, I'm putting most of my investment capital into these counters.
Koon should just accept he had been wrong big time TWICE, and adapt accordingly. Instead of being such a sour grape; so sulky he had lost big with Supermax, and then failing to jump onto the gloves rebound.
"prices of gloves cheaper... more players in the market" etc. etc. - even if these are correct, for Bursa investors, speculators and especially traders, WHO CARES?!
Tell us, Koon, *what* is the one and only goal when we enter the stockmarket? Why, it's to MAKE A PROFIT, of course. Specifically, capital gains. If it's not clear enough yet, "To buy something and then sell at a higher price later on", and thereby making a profit.
It doesn't matter how much cheaper gloves are selling now and in the future. As long as the current price is higher than what we had bought a counter for, then all is well and fine.
If Koon hadn't been such a sour grape, he could have recovered some of his losses by jumping onto the rebound. Unfortunately his pride and ego were obstacles. And he is seething in resentment seeing the "gloves ship" leaving without him.
So unfortunate a former `Bursa Guru' has degenerated to this very low level!
Sorry to say this but this post, when read with previous ones, sounds so sour grapes. Koon has shown how erratic he has become since last year. Especially after the AT episode. Not to mention his about-turn regarding Supermax.
So how does this gel with his so-called "Golden Rule"? `More supply than demand' regarding gloves? Where did he get his data from? In reality glove makers are among businesses that are in very comfortable positions. Until this changes, it would be silly to not buy and keep glove counters. Just because there are now more companies entering the fray.
By the way, what is his comment on Kossan's monster Q1 2021 results announced yesterday? Are these signs of a glut in the gloves market?
This used to be one of the core counters in my portfolio, around 2012-14. It's usually among the Top 20, at least, in terms of daily volume. Quite good dividends too. One of the main attractions was its power business in India. Us investors/speculators would comfort ourselves with this hoped-for money-spinner. Often delayed but we were patient. "Soon".
If memory serves me right, the share price was RM3+ (?) I had sold due to needing the money for some project. Fortunately as it later turned out. Then it started the death of a thousand cuts. Drifted lower but slowly. It's been quite a few years since I followed it. Now it's below 30 sen! Should be a lesson that "Buy-and-Hold" isn't necessarily a good strategy.
"Such a re-rating, without any material news, can only mean that the analyst has been completely wrong in their work previously due to reasons solely related to their own capabilities." ... Many investors at i3investor had been wary of these IB analysts' target price for gloves counters since a few months ago. So they stayed away from these counters - or at least didn't add - despite some supporters continuously harping on those TPs, arguing how `cheap' they are. The cautious investors managed to protect their capital during the bad period when gloves were pushed down by short sellers and many investors panicking.
Anyway, I feel counters like TopGlove offer good value now. Never mind if the IB analysts have reduced their TPs, and even with new supply from China and elsewhere. The fact remains that as a business, glove companies will still be in a comfortable position in the coming months. Therefore it's prudent to have a glove counter or two in our portfolio. For the sake of balance.
With KYY's Supermax episode - I don't think he's telling the whole truth. "Sold all 3 weeks ago"... but still talking up the counter after that. This isn't consistent with what the average person would do. Even if he has become erratic due to the onset of old age.
I think he had indeed sold some before this, especially if he had bought on margin. With the counter in an obvious downtrend, that's a prudent thing to do. To ensure one isn't overly burdened by the margin buy, and to have the resources to average the cost later on.
But whatever the whole truth is, Koon's reputation among the investors/speculators/traders here has taken another beating. After the AT episode late last year.
Previously many had hero-worshipped him as _the_ top Bursa Guru. The stature and deference shown by these acolytes over the years would surely have pleased him a lot. As it would have been for any one of us too.
Unfortunately the previous positive sentiment had gone the other way. In fact nowadays comments about Koon tend to be nasty...and his supporters no longer come to his defence. And he has himself to blame, no thanks to the posts and actions where he doesn't come out as honest and forthright. Instead, as someone with secret agendas and using his previous stature and influence for his benefit, first and foremost. And not as the 'wise and kindly uncle' he had taken years to cultivate.
Let this be a lesson for everyone, especially those fairly new to the stockmarket. Read and consider what people write here, especially those we feel "know stuff". But in the final analysis, each and every one of us make our own decisions. Nothing is forced onto us - if we were influenced by someone, it's because we had allowed ourselves to be so.
Learn from our mistakes and successes, and never blame others when it is we who had clicked on the Buy and Sell buttons. Only by being honest and continuous learning will we improve. Including in becoming better and more consistent investors.
@probability - Interesting comments and angle, especially the mental factor of KYY's age. Now that you had mentioned this, it got me thinking of my own experiences with those of the elderly age group. My father is among this. And don't forget the most famous of all - Tun Mahathir.
Not all are the same of course. But they do share a few characteristics. The most common is, they tend to be erratic. Not to mention forgetful, and very easy to take offence and sulk.
Thank you for the effort in coming up with this post. Ben Tan - this name has credibility due to the quality of posts, plus in the way he carries himself when discussing and debating. Cool-headed, mature and pleasant.
This is an encouraging day for Kossan considering how glove counters have gone into a spiral during this week especially. Have to admit that yesterday was a harrowing day, and I was having doubts about whether the support would hold today. Thankfully it did, plus ending the day on a positive note.
I had gone in too early (as usual) with this counter, and have been averaging the price since then. Normally I would have cut loss instead of buying at different lower price points. But I had decided that Kossan is one of the companies that will continue to do well for at least 2021, and that the downtrend will see an end sooner rather than later. When I'm reasonably sure of this, will be adding more.
At this price, I'm going to buy my first batch of TopGlove tomorrow. Might still go down some more but I'm going to risk it anyway. Vaccine or whatever.
This company had a few magnificent quarters, AND projected to achieve a few more in the foreseeable future. If not magnificent, at the very least "good". Logically institutions and retail traders would want to put their capital in a company like this. But "logic" doesn't seem to be the measure used by the big money right now, for whatever reason.
If one is overextended with his buys, using too much debt, then yes, the selling at lower prices (loss) is definitely normal.Forced selling by banks or creditors threatening to take legal action if they aren't paid NOW.
More investors are starting to realise this: despite the MCO *and also* Emergency, glove makers will continue to do well. Kossan included too, of course.
The decline in price over the past few weeks is very disappointing and painful. But I believe that if we buy at different times and average the price, we will be rewarded. Must have a bit of patience and not expect capital returns so fast as with a trader's mentality.