Why would it be bad? Pchem is servicing south east Asia with 12,800,000. While jilin total production is 6,780,000 TPA capacity. One is in North East China servicing China customers, the other is in South East Asia, serving the fastest growing populations in the world in Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia.

And more importantly, pchem profits is 50% from urea fertilizer serving the palm oil plantations... What did that have to do with Jilin?

Very appreciated and thanks.

Yinson is definitely a bad investment. We should be looking at buying talamt and netx instead as they have huge assets! Those seem like a wonderful investment as calvintaneng is a top 30 shareholder in netx as I recall he claims.

What else do you know

>>>>>>>>
02/2022 5:16 PM

calvintaneng Yinson Debt Bomb has ballooned to over Rm7 Billions (more than twice that of Serba)

My rationale comes from their business model. Hibiscus buys brownfield assets from shell and other customers who have gone through the majority of the extraction and sell it to hibiscus who believe that there is still more to dig and thus offer a bid for the assets. However being in the industry I think it is definitely more art than science on how much extraction can be done and selling at what price. Currently now at 90+ per barrel it would seem like a wonderful idea to buy, however if the oil price drops you will have the same case of sapura and armada which did speculative investments of the similar nature. Whether or not hibiscus paid a good price for the bid remains to be seen, however for the moment they seem to have struck black gold indeed.


>>>>>>>>>>

Windy1974 Hi Philip. Well written as usual and it shows how much time you have spent on your investment.
However, please enlighten me how is Hibiscus speculative stock?

Here is where we look at safety, do you buy bumi armada with a history of delays in FPSO uptime and lawsuits with clients on non production? They do have a firm order book of 15 billion ringgit, however their cash position is weak and will not be able to bid for more big jobs( I suspect FEED will go to yinson), meanwhile they are only recently out of the woods with there current contract oil price.

Meanwhile you have yinson which is double the market cap, yet they have 4 times the order book at 15 billion USD, a long history of completing their projects on time and on schedule, and most important they are linking with all the big clients with good payment.

Who will you choose? I know where my line in the sand is drawn.

I personally believe shale as an industry does not work as the associated costs are far too high. Maybe once middle East production reduces.

Yes, it takes time to restart productions and bring in drilling crew. In the meantime, those who are in the business will be enjoying huge earnings.

Oil price sudden spike is not only because of oil demand but also due to shortage and disparity between supply and demand.

>>>>>>>>>>>
Winter will be over soon and oil demand will tapper off.
So dream on the USD 120 per barrel oil.

What is armada order book?

>>>>>>>>>
ITreeinvestor armada much better with pe5 only
07/02/2022 5:39 PM

Is yinson a oil services unicorn? I think so, from the last 12 years since 2010, yinson has been a 100x company. imagine that for a malaysian company that not many people even realizes exists but can compete on the world stage.

In investing we should always learn how to invert. The question we should ask is, why did institutions borrow 7 billion to yinson? Is it unsecured loans? Or loans based on assets as collateral and long term contracts?

Once we invert we find out that the revenue generated of 4 billion a year already includes operating cash
Of 781 million per quarter, with 200 million in finance costs paid. More importantly, what is in the order book that underlies the loan?

FPSO Anna nery of which part of the loan is being borrowed, will start in 2023 and a service contract of 25 years, 25% of which was sold to sumitomo group. The right thing to do is how much is the charter contract per day? Maybe the project contract value of 5.4 billion USD over 25 years is an interesting number? Their daily rate for charter is 590k per day, which is a lot higher than the recent contract win for marlim basin, FPSO Atlanta and FPSO maria, also 22 year charters at 500k per day starting in 2024.

Now the question you should ask is this. How much revenue and cash flow will they be receiving in 2024…? Will yinson be doubling its revenue from 4 billion to 8 billion a year? Or will it be 12 billion a year?

Yinson is a very simple business to understand. Their order is clear and signed until 2048, the volume signed and the requirements to hit their target to deploy 3 more FPSO with million barrels capacity is forcing them to take a huge pp to fund the growth of 1.6 billion needed to build the ships.

Their contracts are even easier to understand. They don't charge per barrel or split exploration costs like sapura or armada. They charge a fix day rate for charter of ships over a set period with all costs amortised within contract.

So far all their FPSO have 99% uptime, with the only cancelled project was in Vietnam due to force majeure ( yinson gets to keep the ship as part of contract and partial payment). Other than that, yinson orang puteh managers all have a stellar track record.

The only thing required now is time.

Why is sumitomo group willing to pay 25%? Why did k-line also buy another 10%? Why sukuk 1 billion renewable bond approve? The data is very clear and very simple to understand. I'm surprised with information you can directly download off the internet( contracts are on the yinson website and upstream online) we still find uncertainty.

Incredible.

>>>>>>>
JJPTR Yinson short and long term loan is about $7.35billion only. Assuming borrowing rates about 7%, interest cost comes to $514m only. And yearly profit not enough to cover the borrowing cost. Will it collapse? Depend who will run first.
paying loan interest is one thing,paying back the loan of 7.35b is another thing.
One way is to print $7.35b worth of papers and dilute existing shareholders.
31/01/2022 10:02 AM

So many crazy fools trolling in so many different groups. Talk about plantations in logistics company discussion.

Sooner or later sure talk about insas

You on the other hand, deserve neither respect of the time of day. The saddest thing is in 10,000 posts you have never had a single good word or an original opinion of what stocks to buy. You are worse than a scammer, someone who has an opinion about everything but has never gone ahead and done anything worthwhile in life. What stocks do you hold? What successes have you made in life? What challenges have you overcome? I think your online claim to fame is to tell everyone that you are the famous i3 troll, who tries to pick a fight with everyone because you show none of the qualities of a good investor.

So free to post 10,000 comments on i3, what have you done with your life up to now? Sadly only online bullying, no wife, no kids, no life, no friends.

Maybe you can actually read up on kh lim as the boys of senheng and how he has struggled through life and made something of himself.

He certainly has very little time to post 10,000 comments and waste time being a troll...

>>>>>>>>>>

i3lurker sslee

I am shocked !!!

I guess someone ran out of Suiyee Sucker Billis worth scamming inside Telegram
..........and now is coming back to toxic i3 to scrape toxic people off the bottom of the barrel, for scamming purposes of course !!!!!

Why are you ask treating this like pasar malam? Please refrain from posting other non relevant information in this blog post. This is why I find it irritating, write one article and suddenly different conversation come in. Why cannot stick on topic?

As for serba, I have said and admitted my mistake. I have put my selling and amount and details on when I sold it exactly as well as my explanation on what has happen. You can look at my portfolio as to the exact time and date and my comments on that.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp#tabs_group2

You are welcome to post whatever you want on it there or start your own blog on it.

Note that even though I do not need to explain my decisions and actions to anyone, I do however publicly post my portfolio and the transactions publicly and the without editing. Immediately after I buy or sell I report clearly, unlike many of the pump and dumpers in this group.

In any case you can post if I have any conscience, as I clearly treat my transactions and reports clearly. Instead of harping on small trades or small risky investments on my portfolio, why not comment on my biggest purchase instead in pchem and start from there on my investment philosophy?

In any case, please respect my blog which is on SENHENG, and stick to discussions on that. Trying to troll other blogs are beneath you. You are like someone having a discussion on palm oil matters in a seminar and someone suddenly comes and shouts about buying in Insas! Insas! Insas! And drowning others comments.

You are not a Calvin tan eng Yee. Please respect yourself if not others.

Noted and thanks

Can keep the pasar malam talk to on TOPIC please? If you want to discuss, stick to senheng. I remember you were very very WRONG about the prospects of Mr DIY, so if you dont have anything to add, you are welcome to write your own post about Inari somewhere else, no need to hijack other writeups.

>>>>>>>

Posted by i3lurker > Jan 31, 2022 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

sslee

helping you lah

buying some Inari now to catch falling knife, not recommending this to anyone else

This is one of the silliest mental models that I have learned to shake of decades ago. If something is selling cheap, we have to understand why, instead of dumb dumb buy, because bursa rules and nyse rules are different.

And yes windy1974, the goal is to never too busy simply buy something that looks cheap on paper. We need to understand why something is selling cheap. Even more so when shares of "undervalued" Insas has been selling at cheap price since 2015 with no improvement.

>>>>>>>>>

Sslee As of Insas just read the financial report. You are actually put in RM1.00 to get and investment sum of RM3.00 for Insas to invest the money for you.
31/01/2022 9:33 AM

Just as I cannot understand why you will ever want to become top 30 shareholders of companies like insas,

You will never understand why I bought DIY(1.7), Tesla(500), palantir(13) and stoneco(19). After selling at 2+, 1100+, 38+, and 80+, all tracked on telegram,

You will probably also never understand why I bought back pltr, stne, Baba and Netflix as well, prices and decisions also tracked portfolio.

Then again, as a previous major top 10 shareholder of xinquan,

Your goal is never to understand, but more to make everyone agree with your way of thinking. Too bad your results also don't match your claims.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Sslee Good morning i3lurker,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Telegram/2021-06-15-story-h1566847714-Why_I_bought_even_more_SERBADK_bonds_and_stocks.jsp
Author: Philip ( buy what you understand) | Publish date: Tue, 15 Jun 2021, 5:56 AM

Untill now I still cannot understand what Philip trying to tell in the story of 'The Dog and the Dragon.’

Yes, sadly full of trolls who talk about everything other than the original post. Yes I lost 5 million on my serba investment and I posted exactly when I cut my losses in my portfolio page. And yes it is a small portion of my portfolio at 5%, meanwhile my entire portfolio is still boring and intact and doing well.

As for i3lurker who has never had a stock idea but insist only on being a troll with no portfolio and no performance, what makes you think anyone cares what you think? If you have 20k views on your blog article with a trackable portfolio to actually back up whatever you have to say, maybe one day you will realize:

Those who can do.
Those who can't talk.
Those who can't talk, can only be a troll.

Until then on an 3 year rolling basis since I started tracking my portfolio on i3, my long term performance is still miles better than a troll like you. At 16.5% CAGR over 3 years, much much better.

Maybe you should spend less time trolling or and more time thinking about investments.

That is very true and a huge problem here in Kota Kinabalu. I still see they have surface 3 for sale at the counter. Dead stock.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

>>>>>>>>

Calvin tan record of stock picks promoted since 2019 performance... he will tell you he bought all at the right time and sold at the right time.

He will also con you and say that he bought NETX at 0.01 cent with no chance of it dropping... and now NETX is at 0.12 cent! amazing 12x return...

however take a look at the reverse dilution to know the truth of how his investments over the years are really doing.

bought more pchem at 8.91

In my opinion ctos can't be more than a 800 million company. For a company that was established in 1990, those in Malaysia that require those services already have access. And since the database itself does not belong to ctos, I see no value in overvaluing then this high.

If not good I would not be buying it. Compared to others innoprise offers good dividends(20%) and good share price increase (36%)

I am a CPO producer and I don't see why benefit because the increased price of CPO is tempered by the difficulty in sourcing workers and delivery costs. If my small 100 acre farm can feel it, imagine how the upset the larger farms would be

Nola, he is also promote and get people to buy big in talamt and netx,

>>>>>>>>>>>


Posted by Want2MakeMoney > Jan 26, 2022 2:31 PM | Report Abuse

Calvin only loves and promote palm oil stock. lol

Worst of all using Jesus name to promote reliability and trustworthiness. The road to hell is paved with good intentions indeed.

First time you know him? I bought glove stocks since 2009 and said not a word while enjoying huge profits. Why need to bring other stocks down to push up your own stock picks? I buy gloves, tech, chemicals and palm oil ( small amounts because we all know this is unsustainable, and my farm itself is doing good but suffering because of covid and lack of workers to deliver palm oil). Calvin who lives in Holland and knows nothing about palm oil except what he reads, his palm oil stock not doing well despite high prices( and he still didn't know why), so he needs to bring down other stocks so people will support his stock picks.

He try to bring down yinson ( lawsuit). Now apologize.
He try to bring down pchem ( just read his comments before). Now pchem is all time revenue and earnings and dividend high.
He try to talk bad about other stock( any and all) just to get people to buy his scam stocks like netx, talamt and scomies and now his recent palm oil stocks which haven't been moving at all.

Very sad indeed.

These kind of harvest city pastors are all like that, they try to push their own star by casting mud on everything else.

Typical conman

>>>>>>>>

Liar always liar, never change behaviour
26/01/2022 8:30 AM

If this was really true, why would he buy pn17 air Asia? This i do not understand what margin of safety is there.

>>>>>>>>>

JohnDough “Margin of safety is as important in Tan Teng Boo’s new value investing as it was in Buffett’s Phase 2 or Graham’s Phase 1. The necessity to derive long-term intrinsic values remains the same too.

Understanding the long-term economics of a business has remained as important as ever, if not more so in an age where disruption, originating from technology or non-technology sources or both, is probably becoming more regular.

As Tan Teng Boo explained in his Apr 2019 talk, the important drivers of New Value Investing or Phase 3 of value investing are:

Inflation theme stocks is to buy stocks that benefit from inflation. Simply looking at commodity stocks to buy is dangerous as commodities have no pricing power. You should be looking at commodity stocks with own brand name which is locally sourced and immune to transport costs.

For example PETRONAS additives and pchem fertilizers. Or coca cola soft drinks, McDonalds burgers etc. You will soon see these kind of business post quarter after quarter of growth in revenue and margins.

I am trying to avoid pure commodity stocks like steel manufacturingfactories or palm oil farms as those are more cyclical

Happy year of the tiger everyone.

Correct and well said.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jan 23, 2022 7:46 PM | Report Abuse

Recession or not you must hold some cash to take advantage of every situation/opportunity.

DON'T WORRY. THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

Simple answer is YES. Long answer is if supply is < demand, prices will always go up.
>>>>>>
qqq3333 In a reverse QE, u think your Rolexes will still go up meh
23/01/2022 7:03 PM

Recessions are when you open your chequebook and buy all those discounted products. If you look at my portfolio, recessions and panics are when I made the most money. 2009 I bought QL, 2010 I bought topglove, 2020 bought heavy into pchem and Tesla. If there is a recession you shoot fish in a barrel.

When the world is screwed up is when you get the best prices for good companies.
>>>>>>>>

qqq3333 Sslee..Jim Rogers ah? But the world is so screwed up what if there is a recession? If there is a recession even your land values also go down
23/01/2022 7:24 PM

bought more skpres at 1.46

their flagship stores are all in malls, covid deterrant and high cost of rental. not very interesting and cannot compare with diy store as the SKU is more, profit margin is higher, and costs are less.

you can open a mr diy at the base of mount kinabalu, you can't say the same and open a senheng at the base of mount kinabalu.

Hving said that, there is a speedmart 99 and a mr diy at the ranau base of mount Kinabalu.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by newbie8080 > Dec 29, 2021 2:34 PM | Report Abuse

Quite similar with Mr DIY

Having outlets nationwide, sales through physical store and online.

Mr.Diy trading at pe=55 due to it's larger revenue, profit and PAT%.

Can allocate a 30% discount at pe=38.

Still have some upside, if the quarter result disclose before listing day of at LEAST RM340mil and PAT=15mil

Harta is now 6.10. good start to the year.

And yet my long term portfolio has little in major change of shareholdings, and still compounding growth at 16% since 2019.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by PureBULL ... > Dec 31, 2021 11:12 PM | Report Abuse

Stock.investing is like pro in Medicine.

Players need to specialize in 1. u can't do well with 2 specialists.
U either be CYCLICAL INVESTOR or SHORT TERM TRADER.

The strategy n tactic used r so different.

NB: Never become long term investor = u would lose your life on KLSE!

But that is the point isn't it? If you know the stock will then you will feel the confidence to average down. No one is saying buying index funds and sp500 is not good. Far be it. Even Warren buffet recommends buying and comparing your performance versus sp500.

However the truth is this: do you really believe that over a long period of time sp500 can return you 77% consistently? There are obviously times when sp500 outperforms Berkshire. But over a longer period of time you will find that Berkshire has outperformed sp500.

Right now you have take COVID-19 to say that sp500 is performing very very well without looking at the important things of revenue, earnings, the printing of cash which makes a lot of find managers put an overly large amount of money into the index.

For me as usual there are only a few sp500 stocks which I have bought and I think is worth it. And recently started position in Tesla at 500+, Facebook at 300+, stoneco averaged down to 15+, Roblox at IPO, and palantir averaged at 16+. So far us stocks to us index I have definitely performed better compared to sp500.

As for Bursa. Buy what you know. Although even with that as my criteria I still miss on serba dinamik and George Kent.

But as long as the bad bets are kept small while the big bets work out I think I will be ok.

As for not averaging down, everyone including Warren buffet knows not to spend everything in one go. Always keep some for rainy day. He has 30% set aside for rainy day. I have 20% additional on low cost 3.5% loan on tap for emergencies. I only use it when stocks are selling for major discounts and never to average up

That is real life investing. Not paper portfolios where you just buy and forget.

Good job young man!

As usual trust not those who tell you to buy while they themselves sell. Who keep on buying penny stocks to push price up and quietly sell when people are deep into it.


https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/reports.html
https://ark-funds.com/download-fund-materials/
https://www.himcap.com/#Publications li Lu!
https://creador.com/portfolio-companies/

And my own humble track record started since 2019
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp


The simplest way is to read those who post their actual portfolio to see how they actually perform over time.

For 2021 a lot of the major funds have not done well. This is definitely true. But if you look at their record over a longer period of time they have all done swimmingly well.

My own CAGR over 2019-2021 is around 16% compounded. Still good within my expectations.

I'm happy to wait and see what the next 5 years will bring.

Happy new year Lee

enough gloves for 2 days. a lot!

>>>>>>>

THAT IS DOUBLE WORLD POPULATION OF 8 BILLION PEOPLE

which 5 malaysian glove companies were banned by USA? Please do share.

>>>>>>>

THE TOP REASON WHY USA BANNED 5 MALAYSIAN GLOVE COMPANIES IS FOUND HERE: RISE OF GLOVE PRODUCTION BY BLUE SAIL GLOVE FROM CHINA: SEE THE FULL STORY

How come you recommend so many stocks go up but your video background studio still use very cheap looking and poor quality settings? I think you should spend some of your earnings on a proper studio. It seems you are making million...

You are only half right. Too much borrowing is a deathtrap, if you use it for frivolous and risky things. But is yinson borrowing money to start a totally new business? Are they using it to speculate on stocks? No. They are using it to back contracts which will pay for half their ships, and they can break even on their loans within the first 2-3 years after production( based on their history of projects), and earn profit starting year 4.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Dec 22, 2021 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

It is true mah!

Too much borrowing is a death trap mah!

Your sifu Calvin already apologize to yinson management and say that yinson is a public company that is run well. Why don't you keep quiet and go back to buying netx.

>>>>>>>
stockraider Memang benar loh!

Raider give u advance warning now loh!

U can chose to listen or refuse to listen loh!

Like Serba...Raider give 2 yrs advance warning...people refuse to accept!

Now truth is reveal it is already too late mah!

I don't really understand this logic. If you want to look at it this way,
Based on quarter reports: their quarterly bank interest payment is 96 million ( 4Q is around 400m because they get very VERY favorable loan terms from banks).

Their profit from operations per quarter is 262 million (or almost 1 billion in profit from operations). On top of this they are borrowing for confirmed charters from enauta and parc which is a 15 year lease and being paid in advance to build the FPSO.

So what are you talking about? Care to teach me accounting?

Annual profit comes in AFTER you pay all the loans and expenses, then minus any taxes due.

>>>>>>>>

JKPTR YINSON 7293
SHORT TERM LOAN $2358m
LONG TERM LOAN $5037m
TOTAL LOAN $7395m
@7% bank interest=$517m

annual profit hardly enough to cover interesAt payment.

another SERBADK OR SAPURAENERGY?
22/12/2021 9:38 AM

bought a small position in rhonema. lets see if it works out long term.

Good for you! Your best achievements in life! But why do you consistently set low expectations in life and constantly beat them?

>>>>>

stockraider The most importantly Raider has proven to beat Philip flat over 2 years bet mah!
19/12/2021 4:49 PM

But also interestingly enough, how many funds and managers do you know have a 3 years return over this same period during pandemic where they made 15.88% CAGR? Not the sifu and trading guys who tell you how they made big with topglove etc. But those funds that actively manage their own funds and their own stocks with an almost 16% growth every year for 3 years? I would love to meet them. If we went just a few months before, my track record would have been 25.6%, which I think is an ok performance if we do compounding returns.